The Arizona Wildcats punched their ticket to Indianapolis by more or less running roughshod through the tournament's West region, outscoring opponent +25 at the rim, +30 in transition, and +73 in free throw attempts. This more than compensates Arizona being -6 in 3PT field goals made in the tournament, and has been their modus operandi all season- overwhelm in the paint and the extras and you essentially don't have to worry about being outshot from beyond the arc, and in doing so you reduce the variance. Let's dive into who and what makes the Wildcats tick:
First though, we've obviously talked about Arizona's stellar season quite a bit here at Basket Under Review, so here's some links to peruse as well:
ARIZONA ON OFFENSE
Quick and Dirty Personnel Report:
BPR Report per EvanMiya:
Jaden Bradley- The head of the snake. Bradley is the primary ball screen operator in this offense, and will score efficiently out of the ball screen (93rd percentile rate, 74th percentile efficiency rating), but is primarily a facilitator. Much more efficient scoring off the dribble, but can hit the spot up enough to keep defenses honest in that regard (39% 3PT shooter on very low volume). Bradley can struggle to finish at the rim efficiently in the halfcourt (24th percentile finishing efficiency, but is crafty), and he's not a particularly efficient iso scorer (which isn't a large part of Arizona's schematics anyway), but Big Shot Bradley hits them when it matters the most.
Brayden Burries- The most complete scorer on the roster. True 3 level scorer who can play efficiently on or off the ball. 85th percentile ball screen scorer, 95th percentile off the ball, and 99th percentile in isolation. 89th percentile off the dribble scorer, 87th percentile guarded catch and shoot scorer, and a more efficient rim finisher than maybe most realize. Truly the total package as a scorer. Arizona has made 23 threes this tournament, 13 have come from Burries.
Koa Peat- Wide bodied and big shouldered, but nimble with his footwork. Best in the roll game, where he's both an elite finisher and a capable facilitator in the short roll. Has been phenomenal this tournament and has generally returned to form as a projected lottery pick after sort of getting lost in the shuffle and battling through an injury late in the season.
Mo Krivas- Efficient post scorer over his left and lob threat. Elite offensive rebounder. Can lose assertiveness if not established in offense early.
Ivan Kharchenkov- Essential bridge/connector. Can create mismatches in PNR both as a scorer and facilitator. Finishes well at rim, has struggled shooting from the perimeter down the stretch of the season.
Anthony Dell'Orso- One of the few Wildcats who has specific off-ball screening actions called for him. Catch and shoot target when he's on the floor for a team that generates just a 2nd percentile catch and shoot rate. Has played sparingly this tournament because Tommy Lloyd hasn't really needed to break the glass offensively.
Tobe Awaka- Not the world's most skilled offensive threat, but scored in the 95th percentile on post possessions. Biggest strength offensively is unquestionably his offensive rebounding, where he led the entire country in offensive rebounding rate per KenPom. Arizona's Elite Eight victory was the first game all season Awaka failed to grab an offensive rebound, but he also played his lowest minutes of the season (11) due to fouls.
Dwayne Aristode- 8th man in an 8 man rotation, but has actually been a highly efficient catch and shoot target when called upon (97th percentile). Has random big shot in a big game written all over him.
Offensively Arizona is a team that's going to get downhill, both in transition and the halfcourt. The Wildcats own a 79th percentile transition rate with a 94th percentile efficiency rating, coupled with an 87th percentile rim rate and 88th percentile finishing efficiency. The Wildcats aren't really an aggressive defense and don't get in transition via turnover more so that they simply rebound well defensively (top 30 rate per KenPom) and hunt early offense off misses.
In the halfcourt, Arizona gears everything towards getting downhill and creating driving lanes, mostly through pick and roll. The Wildcats own an 84th percentile PNR rate with an 87th percentile efficiency rating (per Synergy data), typically getting into gaps with typical three across alignments:
Tommy Lloyd also loves and empty corner PNR, which often leads to a Koa Peat runway:
Arizona is the 7th biggest team in the sport and play two bigs at all times, so you know they're going to leverage that into a high post rate, sporting a 92nd percentile rate with a 91st percentile efficiency rating. Mo Krivas is the primary post target, and Arizona will often begin games with early designed block establishment for him.
The Wildcats however also like to mitigate their lack of high volume perimeter shooting (363rd in 3PT attempt rate) and perceived lack of spacing with high-low actions, short roll creation, and big to big passing, where Koa Peat has thrived:
Much has been made of Arizona's lack of 3PT volume, but they did shoot the 3 at a top 40 clip when they needed to, mostly thanks to Brayden Burries, the best pure scorer on the team. Burries can score efficiently on or off the ball, but he and Anthony Dell'Orso are about the only options Lloyd uses in any off-ball action (just a 10th percentile rate). Burries did score at 1.4 PPP off the ball on low volume, but Arizona will run him off some staggers to free his elite shooting ability:
Overall this is an offense that leverages their elite size and steadily efficient backcourt to absolutely dominate the rim, either through gaps and lanes created out of PNR, post ups, or big to big actions. Per EvanMiya "Keys to Victory", Arizona is
ARIZONA DEFENSE:
Quick and Dirty Personnel Report:
Defensive BPR per EvanMiya
Krivas- Cornerstone of Arizona's elite drop coverage. Elite rim protector, 87th percentile roll defender, 89th percentile post defender. Was more foul prone earlier in the season, but has avoided that down the stretch and in the tournament.
Bradley- Primary POA defender. Strong and built well, hard to drive through. Strong isolation defender.
Burries- Actually had stronger ball screen and isolation defensive efficiency ratings than Bradley, but often wasn't tasked with and opposing offenses primary ballhandler either. Outstanding rebounder for a guard which helps initiate Arizona's deadly transition attack.
Kharchenkov- Most versatile defender on the team. Genuinely defends 1-4, as evidenced by being the primary on Braden Smith in the regional finals while also helping hold AJ Dybantsa to one of his least efficient games of the season in the first meeting with the Wildcats.
Peat- Uses strength/athleticism combo to his advantage in the post (87th percentile efficiency rating) and isolation (82nd percentile efficiency rating). Defensive rebounding leaves something to be desired.
Awaka- The enforcer. Almost as strong on the defensive glass as the offensive end. More mobile than Krivas so Arizona will hedge and switch with him some. Extremely foul prone.
Dell'Orso- His defense caps his minutes and makes him a one-way player.
This is the slightly more efficient of the two units for the Wildcats (offense was 4th in efficiency rating per KenPom, defense 2nd), and probably the most dominant drop coverage in the sport. Mo Krivas is the heart of that drop coverage, which restricts rim attempts to a 4th percentile rate nationally with a 98th percentile efficiency rating.
Opponents shot just 50% at the rim (9th best mark in the country) and 44% in overall 2PT defense (2nd best in the country).
Arizona is generally not going to send a ton of help, as they want to defend you 1v1, keep the ball in front, and really only switch out of necessity. They'll funnel a high ball screen and off the dribble rate to the midrange, denying both the rim and catch and shoots (2nd percentile rate allowed). Overall, Arizona forced the 3rd highest "low quality shot" rate in the country, per Synergy ShotQuality data.
VULNERABILITIES
With just two losses by a combined 7 points (including one in OT, and the Wildcats led late in the 2H in both), there isn't going to be a laundry list of items here. Yes, you would ideally like to see the 3PT attempt rate a little higher than nearly dead last in the country, and those two losses did see them shoot 46% and 44% on 2PT attempts, which meant they had little offensive recourse when the rim onslaught was slowed down. Arizona's only real scare this tournament came against Utah State in the second round, which also happened to be their worst 2PT% performance of the entire season, by far (38%), and they were fortunate the Aggies were 8-32 from 3. A team that can matchup size with the Wildcats at the rim while also being able to spread them out offensively would pose the most serious threat. Which segues perfectly into our next segment...
HOW THEY MATCH UP AGAINST MICHIGAN
This is what it's all about. Highest thrill score rating in the history of KenPom, and Arizona meets a team who is just as big and just as two-way rim dominant as they are- a literal clash of the titans. Arizona faced a similar situation on opening against Florida, a team with the size to matchup with the Wildcats at the rim on both ends and who can play in transition like Michigan. Arizona was actually outscored at the rim in that game 43-40, which was the most the Wildcats allowed all season until Arkansas scored 47 in the Sweet 16, but that's easily discountable given how quickly that game devolved into open gym garbage time. Arizona of course won that opening night game against the Gators, dominating in PNR offense (Peat had his coming out party dunking on everyone off the roll) and making their free throws, whereas Florida did not.
I do think Arizona has the better backcourt and Michigan's PNR defense has some vulnerabilities given their slight penchant for communication breakdowns in their switch heavy scheme- but Michigan's offense has the higher overall ceiling with their ability to not only make but also create a higher rate of jump shots (96th percentile catch and shoot rate). Assuming fouls don't overly dictate the direction of the game (far from a given), the rim battle has to be considered something of a wash with how dominant both are statistically in their rim denial and efficiency rating (Arizona's numbers were noted earlier in this regard, but Michigan allows just a 1st percentile rim rate with a 97th percentile efficiency rating).
In short, despite being the most efficient unit in the country, I think Michigan's defense is more exploitable (we have at times seen the Wolverines struggle to defend in PNR, and struggle 1v1 in the post), but simultaneously their offense is slightly more capable of exploiting Arizona's defense with their spacing, ball movement, and multiple options behind the arc, where the Wildcats have just one. The natural matchups here are almost too perfect as well- Bradley vs Cadeau (Bradley), Burries vs the McKenney/Burnett/Gayle trio (Burries), Yaxel vs Kharchenkov/some Peat (Yaxel), Johnson vs Peat (Peat), Krivas vs Mara (Mara).
The BUR crew will have far more in-depth breakdowns of this matchup as the week progresses and we make our way to Indy (plus Will Warren will be providing a similar Michigan scouting report here as well), but initial thoughts are it's difficult to see this game not living up to the hype.
