CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WEEK IS HERE! Okay, Conference Tournament Week One of Two is here, but the first was a more exciting opening sentence.

At previous stops and now at Basket Under Review, I have a bit of a tradition. I break down all 31 conference tournaments, with each of the following included:

  • KenPom conference ranking
  • Favorites (30% or higher to win)
  • Darkhorses (10% or higher)
  • Best team overall, in non-conference, and in conference play
  • The average analytics ‘seed’ (aka, where they ranked in the regular season) of the winner
  • Number of times the non-best team won the conference tournament
  • Tournament analysis (who’s hot, who’s not, if previous matchups may matter, etc.)
  • Best pick for March Madness
  • Winner prediction, as provided by RANDOM.ORG
  • And a watchability rating out of 10!

It’s a lot to digest, but it’s so much fun to do every year.

This year's conference tourney breakdowns will come in two parts. This one covers the 15 conference tournaments that will crown a champion between March 7 and March 11. By the way, download our handy chart, which you'll recognize from our prior Heat Check CBB staffers.

This is a 7,000+ word preview, so let's get to it.

Ohio Valley

Championship game: March 7 (Saturday) on ESPN2, 9 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 26th of 31
  • Favorites: Tennessee State (31.3% to win)
  • Darkhorses: Morehead State (18.8%), Southeast Missouri State (18.1%), Tennessee Martin (14.4%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Tennessee State
    • Non-conference: Lindenwood
    • Conference: Tennessee State
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 2.8
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 7

Once upon a time, the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament was must-see television. This period was the 2010s, in which the same two teams traded the regular season conference title every step of the way: Murray State and Belmont. Occasionally, an interloper would win the actual Conference Tournament, but from 2012, the year before Belmont joined the league, through 2022, the year Murray and Belmont left it, one of those two teams won the tournament seven out of 11 times. We were lucky enough to get Belmont/Murray finals five times in a ten-year run, and nearly every single one was a classic.

Then, after 2022, both left for the Missouri Valley, along with some other departures to the ASUN. While the league did have its best year since those two teams departed by finishing 26th, it's still a step down from the yearly battles between a pair of top-100 teams. This season, the league doesn't have a single team inside the KenPom top-200, and for the third year in a row, it was one of the three worst conferences by eFG% in the nation.

What once was thrilling now kinda bums me out, but we have to start somewhere. The good news is that the conference tourney is usually very high-variance, so you have a good shot of a surprise champ here.

Best pick for March Madness: All of these options will be 16 seeds and heavy, heavy underdogs, so what we're really looking for here is (probably) which team can at least give a 1 seed a game for a while. As such, Southeast Missouri State offers the most interesting combo of defensive shot suppression and fairly decent interior rim protection. They also gave Mizzou a full 40-minute fight in November, so there's that. FWIW, Tennessee Martin has a top-100 defense.

The winner is… After an all-upsets semifinals, SEMO defeats Tennessee Martin to go back to the dance. Their reward is a First Four battle.

Watchability rating: I'm sad to say this, but this has fallen to a 1/10 for me. This was the worst-shooting conference in the nation this year and had the fifth-lowest number of close conference games. You can get away with one or the other but not both.

Big South

Championship game: March 8 (Sunday) on ESPN2, 12 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 21st of 31
  • Favorites: High Point (59.5% to win)
  • Darkhorses: Winthrop (18.6%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: High Point
    • Non-conference: High Point
    • Conference: High Point
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 2.9
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 8

The Big South was once a reliable bet for a wonky conference tournament. From 2013 through 2019, someone other than the league's best team by KenPom won the tournament. I can remember a few early 2010s bummers of good Coastal Carolina teams getting got by Winthrop or UNC Asheville. Now, in five of the last six tourneys, the best team has won, usually without too much of a fight.

This could mean the Big South is due for some chaos, or it could mean this is a High Point march to the title for the second straight year. HPU has the largest NIL budget and basketball budget in the league by some distance and clearly seems to be going for what I'll politely call Grand Canyon East. Your mileage may vary on your enjoyment, but it's working. Winthrop is the only other team the league produced this year inside the top-250 of KenPom.

The good news about all the middling teams: highly similar teams with minor differences usually produce a lot of close games. The Big South saw 28% (!) of its conference games finish either in overtime or with a regulation margin of 4 points or less, the fifth-highest rate in hoops this year. Plus, we do have less than a 50/50 shot of a HPU/Winthrop title game. Maybe chaos can come back.

Best pick for March Madness: It's very obviously High Point. This is not a full endorsement of their whole thing. Rather: just a note that they have a near-top 50 offense, a defense better than last year's, and did win a game against UIC in the non-conference. As usual, adjusting their stats for competition is major guesswork, but even adjusting way down, they're still something like +7 per 100 in turnover margin/a little below even on the boards. I've seen worse. I'll note that Winthrop also grades out fairly well for second-chance creation.

The winner is… Here's a rare zero-upsets conference tournament simulation: every single favorite won, including High Point going back to the Dance with a defeat of Winthrop.

Watchability rating: Tough call here, because I do really only care about a potential High Point/Winthrop battle...but I'll still scrape it up to 5/10. If you like isolation basketball, this is very much your league, and in settings like this I like isolation basketball.

Missouri Valley

Championship game: March 8 (Sunday) on CBS, 2 PM ET

ARCH MADNESS!

Look, you get it or you don't. I do. This is not your father's MVC, which would routinely pick up multiple bids and usually had at least one serious Sweet Sixteen threat. This was the best version of the MVC in several years, but it's locked in as a one-bid league after Belmont took an unfortunate season-ending loss to Illinois State. The Bruins are still the league favorite, but I liked it more when I briefly thought this league could get two teams in like it used to during Wichita State's heyday.

This is not as offense-friendly of a conference as it can be, but Murray State had an explosive (in both directions) offense this year, Bradley has the marvelous Jaquan Johnson, and Illinois State, the preseason favorite, seemed to figure things out a little bit as the season went on. Plus, Northern Iowa, the second-best team in the league with a top-25 defense, is the 6-seed. It's a one-bid league, but the thing about Arch Madness is it doesn't matter who or what it sends to the Dance. It just matters that it's Arch Madness, and this tournament always delivers. Always.

Best pick for March Madness: It really needs to be Belmont, at least for me. The Bruins rank highest in my Shot Volume-adjusted rankings and would have the best odds in a standard 12/5 or 13/4 game by a large margin. If it's not going to be Belmont, which I am afraid it won't be because...you know, the best team in the league at simply producing extra shots is Bradley, followed by UIC. However, basically any of the 2-6 seeds carry ups and downs that I can sell, so just root for Belmont, it's easier.

The winner is… A nightmare scenario: Belmont drops out in the quarterfinals, and Southern Illinois makes a run that only a mother could love to the final, where they are dispatched by Illinois State. At least that would be a nice story, with ISU's first NCAA Tournament bid in 28 years.

Watchability rating: 10/10. You either get Arch Madness or you don't. This is the best conference tournament in the game.

Atlantic Sun

Championship game: March 8 (Sunday) on ESPN2, 2 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 24th of 31
  • Favorites: Central Arkansas (46.2% to win), Austin Peay (33.4%)
  • Darkhorses: Queens (10.6%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Central Arkansas
    • Non-conference: Lipscomb
    • Conference: Central Arkansas
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 1.4
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 4

The Atlantic Sun is still called the Atlantic Sun Conference but still seems to prefer ASUN in all caps. This is an improvement over their period where they were named ASUN Conference and not Atlantic Sun Conference, but I digress. The best ASUN Tournament team of all time is obviously 2012-13 FGCU, but many may forget that Georgia State (as an 11 seed, 2001), Mercer (14 seed, 2014), and Liberty (12 seed, 2019) have also pulled off first-round upsets from this league.

Usually, though, the ASUN is elite at producing 14 or 15 seeds that can score a lot, can’t defend, and don’t make a huge impact in March beyond sometimes being the team that allows the most points in the Round of 64. Every league has its own role.

Strangely, this conference tournament is one of the most stable in the nation. Upsets really don't happen often in the ASUN, which was once a credit of its home-court format for most games but now just seems to exist. I don't really know how to sell why it exists, but this league is either way overdue for a wonky tournament or has figured out the path to protecting their best teams.

This year, the ASUN has four teams in the top-200 at KenPom: Central Arkansas, Austin Peay, Queens, and Lipscomb. All have different positives (Queens has a top-100 offense) and negatives (Queens has the #332 defense), but 1 through 4 is separated by about 2.5 points on a neutral court in a 70-possession game. There's not much distance here. Plus, the ASUN is the best shooting conference in America, produces a lot of close games, and is an incubator for tremendous scorers that can't defend and can regrettably be swayed by a high-major to come be a less-tremendous scorer that can't defend. Bonus watchability point: Bellarmine has a top-80 offense and the literal worst defense in the sport.

Best pick for March Madness: I think either of your top two are fine-enough picks here. Both Austin Peay and Central Arkansas are good at defensive shot suppression, with CArk being a bit better at rebounding and Peay being better at two-way turnovers/offensive shot volume. If forced to prefer one, give me Central Arkansas.

The winner is… A 4-over-1 upset in the semis results in an all-Tennessee final, with Austin Peay escaping Lipscomb to make their first Tournament since 2016.

Watchability rating: 8/10. NO ONE in this league defends, and the product is arguably better for it. All of Queens, Bellarmine, Central Arkansas, and Austin Peay play beautifully on offense, there's not a ton of fouls, everyone can shoot, and the league had one of the highest percentages of close games this season. I do wish the overall quality was better, but for a bottom-half conference this is hard to beat.

Summit League

Championship game: March 8 (Sunday) on CBSSN, 9 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 21st of 31
  • Favorites: North Dakota State (39.2%), St. Thomas (37.6%)
  • Darkhorses: none/everyone else
  • Best team…
    • Overall: St. Thomas
    • Non-conference: St. Thomas
    • Conference: North Dakota State
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 2.2
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 12 possible), 2012-present: 5

Generally speaking, I’m all for holding onto whatever small regionalities we have left in this world. Everything is national now. I can get an Indiana pork tenderloin sandwich at a bar in Knoxville. If I want Detroit-style pizza, three different places do it now, and none of them are called Jet’s Pizza. California burritos are available in every mid-sized city in North America. You can buy Nashville hot chicken in Ontario, which I did once as a joke. None of these are as good as the original, but few even remember the originals these days.

As such, I have to congratulate the Summit League on creating the one streaming service seemingly no one I have met has an account on. While Flo Sports is an openly bad piece of garbage that should be defunded yesterday, Midco Sports is a great mystery to me. This service is mostly for the residents of the Dakotas and/or Summit League fans, and even Rocco Miller, who I think knows everyone everywhere, isn’t often able to watch their games if at all.

What this does is make the Summit League maybe the only Division I men’s basketball league left with a sort of mystery to it. Even the SWAC and MEAC have acquiesced to ESPN+ for significant portions of their schedule, and the CAA’s idiotic deal with Flo Sports does at least include a couple of weekly games on CBS Sports Network, which YouTube TV and most sports packages for cable include with your monthly payment. Nobody I know has Midco Sports.

I have not seen a single team in this league play a game since the calendar hit 2026. Okay, mild lie: I saw St. Thomas/South Dakota State on February 4, the only time all season the two preseason favorites for the league title were on CBS Sports Network. I was last able to watch North Dakota State, the actual conference champion, on December 22…when they played UTEP on YouTube. The rest have been behind a paywall I will not pay for as a non-superfan of this conference, but this is a barrier I can respect. It’s one of the only ways you can still live in 2006 as a college basketball fan.

Best pick for March Madness: Either of your top two are fine here, but I'll admit I prefer North Dakota State to win this league. A Shot Volume Index of +7.4 is highly interesting stuff, including a huge edge on the boards. The bad news: of their 10 closest 13/14 seed comps in my database, none of them won a game. The good news: of their 10 closest 13/14 seed comps in my database, half of them led at some point in the second half of their Round of 64 game.

The winner is… A semifinal upset results in North Dakota State toppling, of all teams, 6-seed Denver in the final.

Watchability rating: 6/10. Unfortunately, a minor downgrade for me this year. The conference is still offense-first and plays a pleasant brand of basketball, but there's only two good teams and it had a very high percentage of blowouts this year. I think that probably four of these six points are in the event of a Tommies/Bison final.

Southern Conference

Championship game: March 9 (Monday) on ESPN, 7 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 23rd of 31
  • Favorites: ETSU (29.8%)
  • Darkhorses: Furman (19.5%), Mercer (16.6%), Western Carolina (10.3%), Samford (9.8%), Wofford (9.5%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: ETSU
    • Non-conference: ETSU
    • Conference: ETSU
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 1.5
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 5

This was one of my least favorite editions of the SoCon in many years, a huge bummer after several seasons of great, highly watchable, entertaining basketball. For whatever reason, almost the entire league whiffed this year. Scoring efficiency is down, shooting efficiency is down, and they still didn't produce many close games despite most of the league being fairly similar to one another.

So I'd like to focus on some positives. For one, hey, ETSU is back! Remember them? They had the league's best defense and are exceptional at producing havoc plays. All of Mercer, Samford, Wofford, Furman, and Western Carolina could win this conference tournament, because none are far off from ETSU and all are fairly similar. Also! The Citadel did not finish last! No one paid attention to an excellent coaching job by Ed Conroy, who squeezed out 7 conference wins, the most the school has seen since 2010. That's something to celebrate.

Best pick for March Madness: Pretty easy pick here in ETSU, who leads in two-way Shot Volume Index and grades out as the best team by about 30 spots in my Shot Volume model. Furman or Mercer would be fine secondary picks. Anyone else is probably not worth consideration.

The winner is… The randomizer produced a baffling tournament, with a semifinal including the 5, 6, and 7 seeds and a finale of ETSU defeating 7-seed UNC Greensboro.

Watchability rating: 5/10. This is a much, much worse version of the last few SoCons, so my hopes aren't high, but at minimum the league does play a very enjoyable offensive style, which makes for a great contrast with the only two good defenses the SoCon has (ETSU and Furman).

Sun Belt

Championship game: March 9 (Monday) on ESPN2, 7 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 20th of 31
  • Favorites: Troy (34.2%)
  • Darkhorses: Marshall (20.6%), Appalachian State (15.7%), Arkansas State (9.5%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Arkansas State
    • Non-conference: Arkansas State
    • Conference: Appalachian State
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 3.2
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 11

Hi! I hear you like videos. Here is a video of a somewhat important shot Troy's Kerrington Kiel made against Louisiana Monroe on February 18 to escape a harrowing road loss to the worst team in the Sun Belt.

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As it turned out, this shot alone won Troy the Sun Belt title and avoided what would have been a historic and insane seven-way tie for first-place. Instead, Troy's 12-6 ascended above a six-way tie for second, and now, the league's best team by KenPom finished seventh while the third-best team in conference play won it all.

Troy may be a small favorite, but you could make a real case for...I don't know, seven different teams to win this conference tournament? None of the 11-7 teams are carbon copies, but due to the tiebreaker insanity, a team like Arkansas State (who graded out as the league's best team on the full season) will have to win five games in five days, while Coastal Carolina, the Sun Belt's eighth-highest rated team, just has to win three. Why? Here's a very simple explanation that won't confuse you.

By the way, nothing about this should lead the Sun Belt to back down from the most insane, perfect conference tournament format in college athletics. Some day, they'll have a team go 16-2 and beat the rest of the league by three or four games. It will be imperative that they protect said team, and this conference tournament structure will do the best job possible. That year is not 2026, but it will happen in the future. The WCC learned this years ago and has never wavered. You know what happened? The WCC helped create one of the greatest programs the sport has seen in 30 years, as well as arguably the top mid-major program to go alongside it.

This was a bad year to have the ladder format because of all the mid-ness about, but I advise the Sun Belt: do not stop now. Don't back down. You are on the right side of history. Keep going.

Best pick for March Madness: No one in this league stands out from the rest, but I think the most intriguing option is maybe Appalachian State. It's the league's best defense, they're excellent on the boards, and they slow a game way, way down. They are a bad shooting team, but hey, in one game anything can happen. I've seen worse 15 seeds. Secondary pick here is South Alabama, who has a high steal rate and could turn the game into a jumper contest.

The winner is… The ladder format simulation I ran produced some fun events - semifinalist Southern Miss, for one - but it did produce a title game of 1 vs. 2, which Marshall won to get back to the Dance as a 15 seed. They went on to lose by 19 to 2-seed Illinois, but hey, nobody's perfect.

Watchability rating: 7/10. Bonus points for the insanity of the format to lift a fairly bog-standard one-big league above a lot of its contemporaries. Plus, you can guess by the fact six teams all finished 11-7 that this league produces a ton of close, competitive games and offers very few blowouts.

Coastal Athletic Association

NOTE: This is a mock bracket with all favorites playing tonight (March 3) winning their final regular season games. I'll update with the actual bracket on March 4.

Championship game: March 10 (Tuesday) on CBSSN, 7 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 15th of 31
  • Favorites: Hofstra (33.8%)
  • Darkhorses: UNC Wilmington (22.7%), Charleston (10.8%), Monmouth (9.5%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Hofstra
    • Non-conference: William & Mary
    • Conference: Hofstra
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 2.4
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 9

There is an unfortunate item I must discuss: it’s now been 14 years since the CAA’s last win in March. This is sad if you’re my age and not only remember George Mason and VCU’s Final Four runs, but also VCU’s upset of Duke, VCU’s upset of Wichita State, and back to the early 2000s where UNC Wilmington became the most exciting 11-13 seed you could possibly find in March. It’s not for lack of trying, as in the last 14 years, a CAA champion has led in the second half of four of their Round of 64 games. They just haven’t been able to close.

There’s a scenario where this year could be different. The CAA has its first top-100 team since 2023 in Hofstra, ranks as a top-15 conference for just the third time in the last nine years, and is a breeding ground for really good coaches that could take different jobs in a month. All of Takayo Siddle (UNCW), Chris Mack (Charleston), Speedy Claxton (Hofstra), and Brian Earl (William & Mary) could be hot commodities in #SearchSZN. 

Plus, this year’s group of team offers surprisingly little distance from about first to ninth. Regular season champ UNCW is separated from ninth-place Campbell by all of six points on a neutral floor. The league’s best team (Hofstra) by KenPom finished third, and the third-best team (William & Mary) finished in a three-way tie for fifth. In years without an obvious best team, the CAA usually delivers a wacky tournament that includes several upsets. This hurts their chances at a Round of 64 win, but it helps the watchability of the league itself. Tough call.

Best pick for March Madness: Normally, I just pick the best team in the league and call it a day, but not here. UNC Wilmington is easily the best pick on the board. In 10 games against top-200 competition this year, they were +8.9 on the boards per 100, held opponents to a 49.4% hit rate on twos, and slowed the game way down (66 possessions on average). They also rarely turn the ball over. I really, really like that mix for a single-game deal in March. Honorable mention: Hofstra, the actual best team with terrific rim protection.

The winner is… Well, UNCW got bounced immediately in the quarterfinals, which is dumb. But the simulation righted itself quickly, with Hofstra toppling Drexel in the final.

Watchability rating: 6/10. This is neither a great nor a bad conference tournament, but it offers a certain strange charm once it gets to CBSSN. Pete Gillen on the call is a lovely, lovely thing, and it earns the CAA one bonus point.

Horizon League

Championship game: March 10 (Tuesday) on ESPN, 7 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 19th of 31
  • Favorites: Wright State (34.5%)
  • Darkhorses: Robert Morris (20.0%), Oakland (12.5%), Detroit Mercy (12.2%), Green Bay (11.8%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Robert Morris
    • Non-conference: Oakland
    • Conference: Wright State
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 2.8
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 8

Oakland’s shock Round of 64 victory over Kentucky that ended John Calipari’s career with the Wildcats was huge in two ways: the one I just mentioned, and the part where it was the Horizon League’s first NCAA Tournament win (we don’t count the First Four in stats) since Butler’s back-to-back runner-up finishes. For the most part since 2011, the Horizon has delivered a lot of 13-15 seeds that don’t win, even when you really, really thought they should’ve won. (I am still mad about 2014-15 Valpo.)

However, that Oakland win seems to have renewed the league’s spirits. Last year, 15-seed Robert Morris pushed Alabama for about 35 minutes, which was really impressive considering said Alabama team would go onto the Elite Eight. I’m not as confident about this year’s batch of teams, but all of Wright State, Robert Morris, and Oakland could probably do the same. There’s also a feverish, unsettling thing lurking in the distance.

I guess we have to talk about Green Bay. They finished top-5 in the league, admittedly well ahead of what I would have imagined this year. This nice, solid, successful season has led the entire college basketball media conglomerate to DEMAND you respect, kiss, and love all over one Douglas Gottlieb. Here, I will do just that: after quitting his radio show and finally deciding to be a full-time college basketball coach, Doug delivered Green Bay’s second-best win-loss record of the post-COVID era and their 21st-best season by KenPom since 1997. Not half bad!

Best pick for March Madness: This is a league without many great options, but I can at least envision going to bat for either Wright State or Robert Morris. The latter is exceptional on the boards, while Wright State has the Horizon's best rim protection and the best offense. Either could make a 3/14 game interesting for 25-30 minutes.

The winner is… This very unusual format did produce some great simulation outcomes: Youngstown State to the semifinals, a Detroit Mercy/Oakland semi, and Green Bay eating it immediately. But in the end, Wright State won as expected.

Watchability rating: 7/10. I can be swayed to a 6/10 here, but this is a conference that plays a very fun brand of basketball among the average team, and there are plenty of storylines to invest in here. Count me in on the Horizon.

Northeast Conference

Championship game: March 10 (Tuesday), 7 PM ET on ESPN2

  • KenPom conference ranking: 29th of 31
  • Favorites: Long Island (54.9%)
  • Darkhorses: Mercyhurst (15.9%, but ineligible for NCAA Tournament), Central Connecticut (15.3%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: LIU
    • Non-conference: LIU
    • Conference: LIU
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 3.4
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 10

It is deeply funny that of all the 16 seeds throughout history, the two that won a game were, in terms of quality, in the 56th and 6th percentiles of 16 seeds. If 2008-09 ETSU, a team that ranked 110th in KenPom and had an 8% chance of knocking off Pitt, had pulled off the upset of a lifetime, it would have been stunning but explainable. KenPom #285 Fairleigh Dickinson defeating Zach Edey is still the most shocking thing I have ever seen in an NCAA Tournament game, and I’m not sure if it will ever be topped.

Once more, the NEC will chase that 2023 high with a batch of nine meh teams and one fairly good one in Long Island, nee LIU, the highest ranked team in the league by 74 spots. LIU also happens to be the only team in the league with some amount of NIL to play with, which is probably evident in snagging former Iona microwave scorer Greg Gordon (after he quit UAB) and being able to keep Malachi Davis and Jamal Fuller, who combined for 30 PPG last year and did not transfer at first convenience.

Fairleigh Dickinson’s shock victory has maybe enabled this league to step it up a little. They’re up to 29th this year (tying their highest finish since 2020) and nearly half the league finished in the KenPom top-300. Things may be looking up! Or maybe this is just a one-team league thanks to a unique circumstance.

Best pick for March Madness: None of these teams are capable of beating this year's batch of 1 seeds, but LIU has a pretty good and athletic frontcourt. A special hat tip to Mercyhurst, who is ineligible but is +4.8 per 100 on turnover margin and would be my #2 here.

The winner is… Fittingly, this produced the single most absurd simulation result of all: Stonehill, STONEHILL!, defeating 6-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the final after a tournament filled with upsets. If this does happen (you have a 99% chance of it not happening), Stonehill would immediately be the worst team to make an NCAA Tournament by KenPom and it wouldn't be particularly close. But it would be a great story!

Watchability rating: 1/10. I'm good. No good offenses and the best team here is the only one with any NIL game whatsoever. Go Stonehill go!

MAAC

Championship game: March 10 (Tuesday) on ESPN2, 9 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 25th of 31
  • Favorites: lol
  • Darkhorses: Merrimack (26.7%), Siena (18.7%), Marist (15.3%), Saint Peter's (12.8%), Iona (11.1%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Merrimack
    • Non-conference: Marist
    • Conference: Merrimack
  • Average seed of winner, 2012-present: 2.8
  • Number of times the non-#1 team in KenPom won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 7

The Sam Federman League. I imagine that by the time this is posted, Sam will have put together an astonishing 26,000-word preview of the MAAC Conference Tournament, already scheduled out his first three Boardwalk + Talk Sessions, and procured a new hat. If every league had their own Federman, college basketball would be in the best place it’s ever been. Passion is a great thing.

I probably should have asked Sam to come in here and explain the differences between a bunch of teams that all look very similar to my eye. MAAC Roulette has once more produced a league where the distance from first-place Merrimack to eight-place Iona is all of 4.5 points on a neutral floor, where two of the league’s five best players (Iona’s CJ Anthony, Fairfield’s Brandon Benjamin) are on the seven and eight seeds. Every single team amongst the top 8 has 10+ losses on the season, but seven of them have 13 or fewer.

This is how you get a league that has consistently produced the most upset-filled conference tournaments in the nation. Only Rick Pitino could manage to tame the league for a three-year stretch, and even he couldn’t stop Saint Peter’s in 2022. In fact, Iona is the only program to be KenPom’s “best” team in the league and actually go on to win the conference tournament since 2014. Everyone else here is cursed and doomed, like crabs in a bucket. I feel bad for Merrimack that all of this will prevent them from an NCAA Tournament. It’s how it is written.

Best pick for March Madness: I would ideally ride with Siena here. Marist's defense would also be a decent pick, but the Saints are a plus in turnovers and rebounding, offer pretty good two-way 2PT%, and have a pretty obvious (to me, anyway) Portal Guy in sophomore Gavin Doty. Best of luck keeping him around.

The winner is… I didn't say all of the simulations would be fun ones. This one gave me Saint Peter's winning the MAAC Tournament AGAIN, this time over Merrimack. I didn't want that! (Just for fun, I ran a second simulation and it produced an absolutely bonkers outcome of Fairfield defeating Iona.)

Watchability rating: 3/10. An extra point added for the pure spirit and love Sam Federman displays for this conference. Unfortunately, this was not one of the better or more watchable editions of the MAAC of my lifetime. I'm staring fondly at the Monmouth/Iona battles of 2016 and 2017.

West Coast Conference

Championship game: March 10 (Tuesday) on ESPN, 9 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 8th of 31
  • Favorites: Gonzaga (60.2%), Saint Mary’s (24.7%)
  • Darkhorses: Santa Clara (13.6%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Gonzaga
    • Non-conference: Gonzaga
    • Conference: Gonzaga
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 1.5
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 6

The departure of our thrice-a-year Gonzaga/Saint Mary's battles is a massive loss for the sport, but seems to underline why we continue to realign whether it makes sense or not. Does it make some sense for Gonzaga to play in a friskier league (if not a true P5) than to continue with life in the WCC? Sure, especially because it would make conversations about them less annoying. But it makes the sport worse, and it makes me sad.

For the WCC's final true show at its peak powers, the league has a serious path to three bids for just the fourth time ever. (We're going to count 2019-20. It would've happened.) You're well aware of Gonzaga and SMC, but perhaps less aware of Santa Clara, now up to 37th at KenPom and 41st in Wins Above Bubble.

That last note is the key one. Last year, in WAB's debut, the top 42 teams in the metric all made the field of 68. It's plausible that Santa Clara can make it by losing to Saint Mary's in the semifinals, but a prospective win over SMC projects to get them to 37th in WAB. If Santa Clara's up to 37th, and if the Selection Committee is true to their word from a couple weeks back, they're in.

If this seems like I'm declaring a rooting interest, well...yes? I would rather see a consensus top-40 Santa Clara team, one with the best offense in the WCC and some monster two-way Shot Volume numbers in the field than WAB's #42 (TCU), #43 (SMU), or #44 (Texas A&M). They're also better than all three of these teams, so...y'know.

Best pick for March Madness: As usual, the answer is going to be Gonzaga, not coincidentally the one team that will be on the top four seed lines. They'll be favored to make the Sweet Sixteen. SMC is pretty good, too, and I think they can win a game or two. But let's explore that Santa Clara note a tad further: with an SVI of +7.6, they'd be the 24th 10 or 11 seed since 2002 to go north of +7. This matters, folks: the previous 23 went 13-10 in the Round of 64, and three of them (remember 2009-10 Washington?) made the Sweet Sixteen.

The winner is… Well, our randomizer gave us Gonzaga, which is fitting, but it also had Santa Clara defeat Saint Mary's. Barring 3+ bid stealers, that should get it done for the Broncos? It might even be enough to even get them out of Dayton. I'm afraid if they make the field they'll either 1) pair Santa Clara with New Mexico in the First Four, or 2) get Santa Clara out of Dayton but force them to play Utah State in a 7/10 game.

Watchability rating: 8/10. Six points as a baseline for a watchable-if-not-amazing league, plus one for the ~80% likelihood of one more SMC/Santa Clara game, plus one for the title game being a near-guarantee to feature two of Gonzaga/SMC/Santa Clara. You just can't get that forever, man.

Southland

Championship game: March 11 (Wednesday) on ESPN2, 5 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 18th of 31
  • Favorites: McNeese (44.9%), Stephen F. Austin (40.4%)
  • Darkhorses: none
  • Best team…
    • Overall: McNeese
    • Non-conference: McNeese
    • Conference: Stephen F. Austin
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 1.3
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 3

One of a pair of conferences playing its deciding game of the season at a Certifiably Odd Time. This one will be 4 PM local in Lake Charles, while the Big Sky will start theirs at 9:30 PM local in Boise. We'll do anything for consistent access in the college basketball world.

This is a really hard league to cover because, for all intents and purposes, it's a two-team league this year where one of the teams is hosting the conference tournament. Stephen F. Austin is the regular season champion, but McNeese gets to play all of these games at their home arena and gets SFA's own boost straight to the semifinals. The good news for SFA is that they beat McNeese straight-up for the title; the bad news is McNeese was undefeated at home this season.

There are healthy debates to be had over who's actually better. KenPom favors McNeese, while Torvik (a little more slanted towards later-season performance) is a greater fan of SFA. Both have gaudy records, they split their regular-season series, and were #1 and/or #2 in both offense and defense in league play. Both did lose games to teams other than their counterpart, but the gap from McNeese to third-place UTRGV was almost as large as the gap from third to seventh. We have a ~64% shot of an SFA/McNeese final, FWIW.

Best pick for March Madness: If forced to only pick one, I do think McNeese is the better pick for a one-game setting in March. But...well, SFA has been better for some time now, also boasts highly impressive Shot Volume numbers, and is less of a known quantity.

The winner is… The randomizer gave me quite the outcome: McNeese getting upset at home in the semifinals, and Stephen F. Austin going on to defeat UTRGV in the final. Hmmm! The 30-4 12 seed of your dreams, or something like that.

Watchability rating: 4/10. This could end up a 2/10 if the final doesn't involve both SFA and McNeese, but if it does I would have it at a 7/10.

Patriot League

Championship game: March 11 (Wednesday) on CBSSN, 7 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 27th of 31
  • Favorites: Navy (66.5%)
  • Darkhorses: Colgate (12.5%), Lehigh (9.2%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Navy
    • Non-conference: Colgate
    • Conference: Navy
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 1.9
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 4

If you like close games, this is your league. The Patriot had 30% of its games either go to overtime or have a scoring margin within four points, which was the highest rate in America. Only six true blowouts (20+ point wins) happened all season, five of which came from Navy, easily the best team this league had to offer in 2026. After several years of inefficient, crappy basketball, the league took a step in the right direction this year, gaining efficiency while still being kind of bad.

I don't know. Navy is 136th, and the second-best team (American) is 241st. That's the extent of top-250 KenPom teams this league will be offering for the 2025-26 season. It's not really a conference with much athleticism, as evidenced by the last or near-last rates of offensive rebounds, fouls, and blocked shots. In an average 70-possession game against top-100 competition since 2023, a Patriot League team will lose the turnover battle by 3 and the rebounding battle by 9, to go with losing 2PT% by over 13%.

It would be excellent and awesome if the league gets its first March win since 2012 (Lehigh over Duke), but even Navy would face fairly long odds in a presumed 3/14 game. It's a hard life in the Patriot League, which builds players up and ships them out to other colleges to earn greater paydays.

Best pick for March Madness: By a large margin, Navy is the one team here I can envision pulling a Cinderella Moment. They're the only team in the entire league with a positive Shot Volume Index (+3.5), and while their level of competition is a reason for that (#362 SOS), no one else in the league produced nearly the level of shot suppression or offensive volume the Midshipmen did. Kudos to Navy, who I'll be rooting for.

The winner is… I never told you the results of these random simulations would be pleasing. Our one and only Patriot League sim resulted in Boston University defeating Lehigh, with Navy bowing out in the semis. Here's hoping that's wrong.

Watchability rating: 4/10. One bonus point for Navy in an otherwise kinda pedestrian, unsatisfying league.

Big Sky

Championship game: March 11 (Wednesday) on ESPN2, 11:30 PM ET

  • KenPom conference ranking: 16th of 31
  • Favorites: Come on now.
  • Darkhorses: Montana State (21.7%), Northern Colorado (19%), Portland State (18.9%), Easter Washington (14.6%), Montana (9.7%)
  • Best team…
    • Overall: Montana State
    • Non-conference: Northern Colorado
    • Conference: Eastern Washington
  • Average analytics ‘seed’ of winner, 2012-present: 1.9
  • Number of times the non-#1 team won the conference (out of 13 possible), 2012-present: 5

If you're this far down and you've made it to the Big Sky preview, a cookie for you. Well done. Now, time to preview the conference, starting off with the favorites:

The darkhorses:

And, of course, the underdogs.

You get it. It would be completely pointless to single out favorites or anything from this league when the league has not bothered to offer any separation at any point this season. Seven of its teams are in the KenPom top 200, but none are higher than 135th. No one finished with fewer than five conference losses, and 60% of the league finished somewhere between 10-8 and 13-5. The last time the league put out a season like this in 2024, it resulted in the 10-seed defeating the 1 and a semifinal featuring 8 and 10 seeds in a 10-team league.

So, yeah, your guess is as good as mine on who wins this.

Best pick for March Madness: None? The Big Sky has consistently had the worst "scaling up" metrics of any one-bid league for a few years now. They very, very rarely seem to have the ability to not be overwhelmed when playing a top-50 opponent. But you came here for a pick, so I'll note of all the super-similar teams in this league, Weber State has the best SVI and Montana easily the worst.

The winner is… In a fairly appropriate outcome, we got a weird one: Weber State coming out of the muck as the 6 seed to defeat...sure, 5-seed Northern Colorado. That makes as much sense as anything else.

Watchability rating: 5/10. The Big Sky is the exact midpoint of college basketball for me. Everything else is better or worse than it, but you know it will always be there as a comparison.