We're well into week two of the college basketball season and there are plenty of preseason storylines and expectations getting tested early. Here are a couple of noteworthy developments as we continue to parse what's real and not in the early nonconference schedule.

Four teams vying for bids out of the WCC

San Francisco drops first test

The Zags and Gaels continue to be likely big dance attendees should they take care of business, but the nonconference slate has served as an early opportunity for two more WCC teams to make the case that they’re capable of at-large bids at the mid-major level.

San Francisco has finished third in conference the last two seasons and scheduled and recruited to a level that suggests this may be the season that head coach Chris Gerlufsen’s staff breaks through and becomes a tournament team.

The Dons' first test for the committee came last Saturday against Memphis, a team with talent up and down the roster, but lacking solidified roles and expectations. The Tigers were able to out-athlete the San Francisco backcourt, creating turnovers, points in transition, and downhill looks, resulting in 16 points at the rim from the Tigers' platoon of guards in Memphis’ 76-70 win.

The Dons prioritized finding answers in the interior, adding Pitt transfer Guillermo Diaz Graham and David Fuchs from Rhode Island to pair with their returning forwards Junjie Wang and Ndewedo Newbury. However, the frontcourt rotation is still a work in progress, with Newbury missing the first three games of the season due to a leg injury and Diaz Graham unable to stay on the court, averaging 9.3 minutes per game while holding a defensive rating of 137.6 against Memphis.

Getting Newbury back healthy and acclimated will give us a true picture of how good this frontcourt can be, with a good amount of backcourt options still trying to replace the offense provided by Malik Thomas and Marcus Williams.

Santa Clara announces their arrival

One team that has flirted with the top of the conference, pinned some losses on Gonzaga in back-to-back seasons and has the recruiting/development track record to make a swing at the tournament is the Santa Clara Broncos.

Speaking with Herb Sendek at the beginning of summer practices, he wasn’t ready to commit to who would be the primary pieces for a team he thought had potential. Then, later in the summer, they added former G League player Thierry Darlan, and the vision became clear of what the staff was looking to do with this roster. The Broncos are able to play with jumbo wings, boasting three guys 6-foot-7 or taller, who are able to pass, shoot, dribble and defend.

That was evident in Santa Clara’s decisive win over Xavier on Monday. Sendek’s team never trailed against Richard Pitino’s Musketeers and led by as much as 30 late in the second half, with senior wing Elijah Mahi knotching a team high 18 points. 

Mahi has been the clear leader of this Broncos team, able to win off the dribble against whoever he’s matched up against and scoring from outside or in the paint. Over half of his shots have come within 10 feet of the basket, and he's shooting 70% on those looks.

The Broncos wing has largely been doing it in the half-court as well, per Synergy, 87.2% of his attempts have come in the fastbreak and hes held an effective field goal percentage of 56.2% in those looks.

But it’s the two-way nature of Mahi’s impact that has helped Santa Clara gain attention as a potential mid-major bid earner. In his first three games this season, opponents are shooting 24% from the field when defended by Mahi, at a rate of 0.483 points per possession.

With five remaining nonconference matchups against top 100 KenPom teams remaining, the Broncos have a real chance to gain traction with the committee and pose a threat for the top half of the WCC.

Buy game disasters (losses by Boise State, Washington State, Grand Canyon, Fresno State, UNLV)

It’s the epitome of brutality and a common occurrence for even the better West Coast mid-majors to start off the season: buy game losses.

Boise State, Grand Canyon, Fresno State, UNLV and Washington State all dropped games against sub-100 KenPom teams they were ranked higher than at home, or in the Broncos of Idaho’s case, a Division II team.

The loss to Hawaii Pacific won’t count against Boise State’s NET Rankings, but it will be part of the resume the committee will consider when making their selections in March. It’s the worst loss in program history, but Leon Rice’s team has appeared to right the ship, winning its next two games against Utah Valley and UT Rio Grande Valley.

But maybe the most concerning and ominous result was Washington State’s loss to its nearby neighbor, Idaho, to kick off the season, losing 83-82. The Cougars now sit 1-2 for the season after staving off a final 10-minute comeback from St. Thomas on Monday.

Washington State is in the bottom second percentile in the country for half-court defense, surrendering a defensive effective field goal percentage of 59.9% according to Synergy.

Against Idaho, Davidson and St. Thomas, David Riley’s team surrendered a 65% field goal percentage on attempts within 10 feet of the basket and currently resides in the nineteenth percentile for percentage of opponents’ total points coming from the paint.

The drop-off from just a year ago is a stark comparison for Coug fans, who saw so much potential in those first six games they had with now Memphis Grizzly Cedric Coward. Yesterday, it was announced that Athletic Director Anne McCoy would be let go by the university, less than 18 months after she took the position. With a roster that could contend for the bottom of the WCC and results reminiscent of the struggles of the Ernie Kent era, it’s a tricky path for Wazzu heading back to the Pac-12.

Gaels and Zags look dominant in the paint yet again

The aforementioned frontcourt concerns for San Francisco and Washington State become particularly relevant when we examine just how dominant the perennial top two teams of the conference have been on the glass and defensively early in this season.

Both teams slot into the top 100 in both offensive and rebounding percentage categories, with Gonzaga showing a back-breaking control on the offensive glass and Saint Mary’s snuffing out opponents as they’ve seemingly always done on the defensive side.

Saint Mary’s is in the 96th percentile for defensive rebounds, holding a 79.6% rebounding rate on opponents’ misses. But what may be most impressive is that they’ve been owning this aspect of games without senior center Harry Wessels, who’s been limited with a lower leg injury he suffered in the first game of the season.

Sophomore 7-footer Andrew McKeever has wiped the impact of that injury out of the picture with his 8.3 points and 9 rebounds average to start out the season. He holds the 20th-highest offensive rebound rate in the country. Freshman wing Dillan Shaw is looking to be the perfect weapon for Randy Bennett as he looks to maintain his defensive identity. The 6-7 California native is the highest-ranked recruit in Gaels history, according to 247 Recruiting, and he’s looked ready to contribute from the jump.

Shaw comes off the bench and serves as a do-everything defensive piece, able to provide athleticism that isn’t necessarily commonplace on the Gaels’ roster historically. He holds a 7.3% block rate and a 3.7% steal rate, with an effective field goal percentage of 65.4%. If he can continue to prove his two-way utility, he could be a real difference-maker for a Gaels team looking for answers on the wing.

For Gonzaga, the rebounding and defense shown in their first three game of the season–against two likely tournament teams, mind you–has been a revelation as they’ve skyrocketed up analytics rankings and entered the national conversation.

The Bulldogs are in the 86th and 88th percentile for rebounding following their 27-point win over Creighton, and are averaging 16 points per game off of second-chance opportunities. Perhaps the biggest factor for this new boon for Mark Few’s staff is redshirt transfer wing Jalen Warley, who went from guard at Florida State to backup power forward for the Zags. Warley holds a 16% offensive rebounding rate and averages 3.3 offensive boards in his 21 minutes per game. Fellow wing Tyon Grant-Foster is second on the team with 2.7 offensive rebounds per contest, making this Gonzaga team even more difficult to limit on the offensive end and compounding the stifling, limited opportunities opponents see on their end of the court.

Gonzaga’s rebounding is shutting off both second-chance points and transition opportunities for their opponents, culminating in teams shooting 33.7% from the field against them. When talking about the returning front court of Graham Ike and Braden Huff, exploiting their lack of rim protection was considered a vulnerability. After 120 minutes into the season, less than 20% of the opposing team’s attempts are coming at the rim, 12.4% below the national average.

Utah State Aggies prove they’re still dangerous but need offensive answers

After losing four of their last six games to close out the 2024-2025 season, questions remained on whether Jerrod Calhoun’s Utah State Aggies were a fun flash in the pan from a team going on a tear despite major roster upheaval and a fourth head coach in five seasons or a mid-major program able to absorb turnover.

After three early games into the season, Utah State appears to be a team built to withstand the physicality of the MWC and make a compelling case to the committee that they belong in the tournament once again, albeit with a slim margin for error.

Credit should be given to Calhoun, who adapted his offense early on to fit the very different skill set of his 2025-2026 roster. Utah State has made a concerted effort to get guards Mason Falslev and MJ Collins downhill and provide paint touches for Karson Templin.

An absurd 41.8% of Utah State's attempts have come at the rim early on this season, nearly 10% higher than the national average. They’re also averaging 16 fast break points per contest against Division I opponents, thanks to the 12 steals their averaging over 40 minutes.

The cause for concern for Utah State is their lack of perimeter shooting, averaging 25% from deep and taking just 18 attempts per game from beyond the arc. Their 29.5% three-point attempt rate is 334th in the country. That difficulty in spacing the floor showed its impact in the second half of their 83-73 win over Weber State on Wednesday night, where the Aggies didn’t make a field goal in the final 5 minutes and 6 seconds of the game. If Calhoun can’t find answers for perimeter offense, his team will need to continue to dominate the turnover battle and get out in the fast break to survive the MWC.

Key Weekend Games

North Texas at Saint Mary’s (Friday, November 14th, 10 pm ET)

The Gaels will have their biggest test of the early nonconference slate, hosting the Mean Green of North Texas. This may be one of the lowest possession games in the college basketball season, with Saint Mary’s ranked 319th in the country and North Texas 358th for possessions per game. It will also be a real litmus test for the three-point shooting for Bennett’s team. The reigning WCC regular season champions are shooting 46.9% from deep, a number in stark contrast to North Texas’s 28% three-point defense allowance.

Nevada at Santa Clara (Saturday, November 15th, 7 pm ET)

Sendek’s team will look to continue stacking quality wins by hosting the Nevada Wolf Pack on Saturday. Steve Alford’s Nevada team offers some comparable size to the rotation Santa Clara will play, but there are real question marks for Nevada’s offense as his primary weapons, Tayshawn Comer and Corey Camper, are a combined 6 for 25 from deep. If the Wolf Pack is able to decisively win the turnover battle, don’t be surprised if this looks a little different than the Xavier game from Monday.

Grand Canyon at Saint Louis (Saturday, November 15th, 8 pm ET)

The Antelopes were picked to finish in the top four in the MWC preseason poll in large part due to their roster additions in the portal, notably former Brown big man Nana Owusu-Anane, who is averaging 15.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 5 assists over his first three games of the season. The test of college basketball’s favorite big man, Robbie Avila, makes this Saturday's game a great test for both teams and a unique battle between two offensive hubs at the center position.