Before we dive into the weekend's action, here are the best performances from yesterday's games.
Saturday, November 15
The A+ Game of the Weekend
#18 BYU vs. #7 UConn (-6), 7 PM ET, FOX.
The biggest issue facing UConn this game is going to be their ball screen/dribble defense against Rob Wright and AJ Dybantsa. Once Dybantsa gets going downhill out of the ball screen/iso, he's virtually unstoppable, scoring 1.4 PPP in ball screen creation.
Rob Wright is right behind Dybantsa in dribble creation/ball screen efficiency, and his matchup against Silas Demary is actually much more exploitable than Dybantsa vs Jayden Ross, who has been outstanding defensively. Starting with Hurley's championship teams, UConn's defense has been built on avoiding being put in rotation, but teams with elite guard/wing play on the ball have been able to exploit that help avoidance. The saving grace for UConn here is Tarris Reed at the rim, and one flaw in BYU's offense is that they lack a stretch big that can pull Reed out of the paint either with hub filtering or as a perimeter threat. Hurley might live with Wright and Dybantsa getting downhill, but he'll take away Richie Saunders and Dawson Baker (and it sounds like Kennard Davis might not be part of the equation either).
On the other end, UConn is of course synonymous with their set heavy, structured offense that will run you through a dizzying amount of screens, staggers, and split cuts that make you defend simultaneous threats.
Last year BYU allowed 1.1 PPP via off-ball screens, where UConn this season is scoring an absurd 1.7 PPP on the early season (with a 93rd percentile rate). We've got two of the lowest transition rates allowed in the country thus far, so this game will likely come down to halfcourt execution, and can somewhat be simplified as can UConn defend on the ball (and avoid Reed fouls) and can BYU defend off it? - Jordan Majewski
B Games
#62 Maryland at #51 Marquette (-4), 2 PM ET, Peacock.
Buzz Williams returns to Milwaukee with both his Terps and Shaka Smart's Marquette squad off to fairly inauspicious starts. Both teams have injury concerns, with Myles Rice and Solo Washington hurt for the Terps and Sean Jones for Marquette. Marquette's offense has typically fared well against gap sitting, help heavy defenses like a Buzz Williams scheme will bring because of their spacing and high catch and shoot creation (98th percentile through the early portion of the season), and low off the dribble rates. That said, Marquette's offense typically runs heavily through PNR, which is difficult to get into against this defensive structure.
I'm not in love with this Marquette offense relative to other Shaka teams, but outside of Indiana, they've played a bunch of funky zone and pressure schemes (which Buzz is fully capable of deploying himself), but they're going to be able to launch threes, which is what they want to do anyway. Maryland meanwhile could struggle against Marquette's ball pressure, especially if they're lacking a point guard (although the head of the snake in that regard is Sean Jones).
Maryland has to be able win with their defense and offensive rebounding, as this team looks pretty miserable in halfcourt offense (same old Buzz Ball really, just back on the east coast). Against Georgetown, the Terps scored just 6 transition points and .78 PPP in the halfcourt. That offensive ineptitude was covered up with 20+ transition points against SWAC and MEAC opponents. If Marquette can even moderately rebound defensively (a fairly sizeable if), they should be fine at home. - Jordan Majewski
#60 Oklahoma vs. #46 Nebraska (-2), 7 PM ET, BTN.
An old-school Big 12 game now being played amongst SEC and Big Ten teams. Have we no shame? We don't, I think we figured that out years ago.
I'm wondering just how much this Oklahoma backcourt can carry a frontcourt I find myself super down on. I don't feel that OU has much in the way of vertical rim threats (particularly if Mo Wague is in foul trouble), and Nebraska's high hedge generally does a good job of eliminating the rhythm pull-ups Xzayvier Brown and Nijel Pack savor so much. Plus, when Nebraska has the ball, their five-out spacing is either going to give Rienk Mast a ton of room on the perimeter or, if Wague/Tae Davis do chase, some serious free space in the paint.
The OU path to a nice road win is Brown getting to the line early and often by way of the driving lanes Nebraska's defense does allow, but I kinda think it's as simple as whichever team hits 10+ threes. If both do: lean Nebraska. - Will Warren
#96 Grand Canyon at #67 Saint Louis (-8), 8 PM ET, ESPN+.
Saint Louis has absolutely bulldozed its way through the early portion of the non-conference slate, winning their three games by an average of 30 while scoring 103 points per game. This Billikens team is extremely reminiscent of Josh Schertz's last squad at Indiana State two years ago. Both were led by Robbie Avila, with a cast of versatile characters that can all dribble, pass, and shoot while running at a breakneck tempo.
Winning in the non-con and winning by a lot is paramount for Saint Louis, because due to a schedule that has zero power conference opponents on it, the squad may have to win out in 2025's portion of the schedule to be clear for a potential at-large berth should they lose in the A-10 tournament, and avoid a similar fate as that Indiana State team.
Grand Canyon probably looks the closest to a high major foe as any team on Saint Louis' schedule, sitting 21st nationally in height with elite rebounding and interior numbers early in their campaign. Saint Louis hasn't even played a team in the upper-half nationally in height, and the Lopes will put the frontcourt trio of Avila, Paul Otieno, and Amari McCottry to the test.
If Saint Louis can continue to dominate in the open floor against a formidable Grand Canyon transition defense, then the Billikens would be amongst the teams with the strongest starts across the country through two weeks of play. A loss, however, and the pressure of the A-10 tournament all the way in March starts to build ever so slightly. - Matthew Winick
#127 Bradley at #85 San Francisco (-8), 10 PM ET, ESPN+.
It's nice when you get one of these on the slate. Bradley's star is diminished somewhat by a surprising home loss to UT-Martin, but when you're in their position it's all about conference play, anyway. I'd wager there's a lot more at stake here for San Fran, who has a roster capable of an at-large bid and needs to accumulate as many wins as they can in the non-con.
'24-25 and '25-26 Bradley aren't the exact same but the general formula of small point guard + large wings remains, which makes last year's home win over USF worth looking back at. Bradley won that game almost entirely on the back of a 60% 3PT outing (USF 11-31), but more notable was USF shooting 34.5% from two against a smaller team.
Bradley's defensive scheme does a great job of eliminating open threes, which seemed to rattle last year's jumper-heavy USF roster. Key here for me: if USF can go back to the off-ball screens and handoffs they love using to create open looks. Every Bradley game eventually boils down to "how'd you shoot," anyway. - Will Warren
C Games
#20 Clemson (-4) at #76 Georgetown, 12 PM ET, Peacock.
Nothing like a good measuring stick game in mid-November, and that’s exactly what this game is.
Georgetown has looked solid through its 3-0 start and already has a double-digit win at Maryland under its belt. Unsurprisingly, Ed Cooley’s squad has been led by its defense, where it boasts elite numbers on the inside.
Clemson is the real mystery here. The Tigers haven’t faced a team that ranks higher than 295th in KenPom (Morehead State) yet have risen into the KenPom top 20 – and top 10 at Torvik, right behind Houston – because they’re obliterating teams so far. Their average margin of victory is over 38 points per contest!
But I still don’t think we really know how to project Clemson moving forward. The senior backcourt of Dillon Hunter and Justin Porter will be tested by the physicality and aggressiveness of Georgetown’s backcourt, particularly KJ Lewis. At the same time, Clemson’s ability to invert their offense with Jake Wahlin and Nick Davidson could cause major problems for Georgetown’s front line.
Those things may cancel each other out, meaning this game comes down to turnovers. Both sides play at methodical paces, and both are top 15 nationally in turnover rate. If one side is able to force a couple of turnovers and get easy points in transition, that will swing the game in their favor. - Brian Rauf
#175 Ohio at #9 Louisville (-25), 12 PM ET, The CW.
A classic Letdown Lookahead Sandwich Spot for the Cards here, coming off of a monster 96-88 win over Kentucky with a more-or-less road game incoming at Cincinnati (it's a 'neutral' at Heritage Bank, but it's three miles from UC's campus) next Friday. One year of data is obviously zilch, but worth noting that in similar spots last year, Louisville nearly lost to UTEP in between games against Duke and Kentucky, followed by nearly losing to Eastern Kentucky in between two ACC outings. As amazing as Louisville looks, they probably will not shoot 69% from two forever.
Unfortunately, I can't promise this actually ends up close. Still worth noting that Ohio does generally play much slower as an underdog and adopts a bit of a not-in-the-face style of play, meaning a huge dropoff in free throws both ways. Exactly one Boals-era Ohio game where they've been a 10+ point underdog has finished north of a 152 total and none above 164, which is notable when KenPom has this around 169. The one aspect I think Ohio could 'get' Louisville in is 5-out sets and pick-and-pops with Aidan Hadaway, but Louisville's likely too powerful for that to matter longer than a half. - Will Warren
#163 Chattanooga at #213 FGCU (-1), 1 PM ET, ESPN+.
Chattanooga’s spread offense has been as advertised to begin the year, and it got a boost with stretchy center Collin Mulholland debuting last Saturday after missing the Mocs’ first two contests. Unfortunately, the vicious west coast back-to-back of Saint Mary’s and UNLV completely overwhelmed Dan Earl’s squad, and the UTC defense gave up an appalling 1.30 and 1.49 points per possession in that swing.
This weekend brings a more geographically logical and competitively balanced road test in Fort Myers, where FGCU’s defense has been arguably worse than the Mocs’ (giving up 1.30 PPP at home to Georgia Southern is bad!). Both teams lack physical interior presences, which will put a heavier emphasis on shot making and offensive execution. That is much more in Chattanooga’s wheelhouse, and the high-scoring trio of Teddy Washington, Jordan Frison and Billy Smith should feast. On the other hand, though, FGCU has plenty of down-transfer talent – as is typical for Pat Chambers’ team – and can score with the Mocs. Expect a hyper-efficient shootout. - Jim Root
#71 Butler at #53 SMU (-5), 2 PM ET, The CW.
The latter leg of a home-and-home that began last season in Hinkle Fieldhouse (Butler won 81-70), Butler-SMU marks the first high-major matchup for either team this season. Both the Bulldogs and Mustangs are 3-0 with all of their wins coming by double-figures. If looking for a fast-paced offensive game this weekend, this might be the one. Andy Enfield-led teams typically play quickly, having finished in the upper half nationally in offensive tempo for 14 of 15 years, while Butler’s concerted offseason efforts to play faster this season have yielded the eighth-fastest average possession length in the country through three games.
The backcourt matchup of Butler’s Jalen Jackson (if healthy) and Finley Bizjack against SMU’s Boopie Miller and BJ Edwards should be a treat. As for potential mismatches, Butler's two-way forward Michael Ajayi has three double-doubles in three games and is dangerous with the ability to rip down a rebound and push Butler’s offense. For SMU, 7-2 big Samet Yigitoglu is as essential a piece to have on the floor as any; the Mustangs are posting a +17.4 adjusted net rating with him on the floor through three games compared to -13.4 without.
SMU will have continuity (3 returning starters) and home-court advantages, whereas Butler hopes to counter with its depth (5th in bench minutes percentage, versus 356th).
The matchup isn’t short on player storylines, either. Last season’s matchup meant a return to Hinkle Fieldhouse for Chuck Harris, who had transferred from Butler to SMU in the prior offseason. This time, it is a return to Moody Coliseum for Yohan Traore, who moved from SMU to Butler this offseason. Additionally, it is a homecoming for Butler junior Finley Bizjack, a Dallas-area native playing his first college game in his home state. - Lukas Harkins
#206 Old Dominion at #73 George Washington (-15), 6 PM ET, ESPN+.
Old Dominion has yet to have their roster close to fully healthy, but did get Robert Davis back against Norfolk State. Davis was by far ODU's most impactful offensive option last season, with the Monarchs 23 points better on that end when he was on the floor, per EvanMiya data. However, he logged limited minutes and 0 points in that game. The Monarchs desperately need him to get his legs under him quickly, as their offense is reliant on a lot of this baseline screen into handoff stuff designed to get him into the midrange (it's not the most modern offense in the country).
Last year's meeting with George Washington saw the Monarchs really struggle with GW's aggressive ball screen coverage, but stayed somewhat close because of their offensive rebounding (GW attempted 37 free throws that game). That offensive rebounding however has not been present thus far for the Monarchs, and for a team that owned a 4th percentile halfcourt offense efficiency rating last season, that's troubling.
GW's offense is extremely rim reliant and filters a lot of offense through Rafael Castro, which means monstrous Caelum Swanton-Rodger has to be able to stay out of foul trouble for ODU, which has been a challenge his entire career. GW's offense instantly became more balanced with Garrett Johnson returning, an elite kick out shooter, but they lost Trey Autry against American. Autry was by far GW's most important two way player from an on-off efficiency margin perspective last season, with the Revs 31 points better overall with him on the floor. - Jordan Majewski
#93 Nevada at #74 Santa Clara (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+.
If you like games where two teams appear to be utterly explosive on the boards but possibly implosive shooting-wise, this might be your game. I've been surprised and impressed by each to start the year, as Nevada is 3-0 with three home wins over top-200 teams despite bad shooting while SCU just got done eradicating Xavier basketball from the planet and has rebounded 49% of its missed attempts.
Naturally, this game is about which team can hit a shot. Nevada has started to jettison its standard ball-screen attack in favor of a more off-ball screen based item, which is of interest because Santa Clara was thoroughly average at defending these last year. The issue for Nevada, though, is an aggressive perimeter defense that doesn't actually force turnovers, which means Santa Clara should have driving lanes and kickouts to explore. Keep an eye on SCU's impeccably-named Aleksandar Gavalyugov, who was awesome against McNeese. - Will Warren
#109 Duquesne at #42 Villanova (-12), 8 PM ET, TruTV.
Villanova’s game effort in Las Vegas against BYU on opening night begat two solid buy game victories. That strong start to the Kevin Willard era was accentuated by a ludicrously efficient shooting performance against Sacred Heart on Tuesday: 22-of-43 from deep, 51.2%. That performance harkened back to prime Jay Wright ball: pristine ball movement, shiny green lights for Bryce Lindsay and Devin Askew in particular, and a dazzling 28 assists. For reference, the Cats cracked 20+ assists just once in the entire Kyle Neptune era.
A stiff test awaits, however. In-state foe Duquesne stocked up in the transfer portal, and former Xavier/Oklahoma/Pitt center John Hugley has been utterly dominant over his last two games (26.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG). His mammoth size is a tough task for any opponent, so Villanova’s Duke Brennan – currently the country’s leading rebounder!! – will need to stay out of foul trouble.
For the Dukes, this is a massive step up in competition after three straight foes outside the KenPom top 200 (and they needed overtime to knock off Queens on Tuesday). That likely means far less transition opportunities (currently in the 82nd percentile in frequency, per Synergy) and more post touches for Hugley. If Nova can contain those two avenues to points, they’ll win, but the talent gap here is pretty narrow for an A10 vs. Big East clash. Watch out for a close one. - Jim Root
#95 New Mexico (-2) at #140 New Mexico State, 9 PM ET, ESPN+.
Whether you're a fan of heated rivalries or fascinating stylistic contrasts, this game is for you.
The Rio Grande Rivalry has seen some wild twists and turns in recent years, between the lost season in 2022-23 (we aren't going to dive into that right now), the Lobos absolutely punking the Aggies by 44 in Jason Hooten's matchup debut, and then New Mexico State stunningly handing New Mexico its sole loss at The Pit all year long as last season.
Schematically, new head coach Eric Olen runs a funky defensive scheme hellbent on shifting the ball around by sending double teams and walling off drives and post ups. Opponents are taking over 52% of their shots from deep against the Lobos this season. On the other side, this is New Mexico State's first Division I game of the year, but it's clear that their alpha dog is Jemel Jones, a Cal State Bakersfield transfer who is an elite 2-point, iso-centric scorer, the antithesis of a shots that Olen defenses allow. This is one of the nine turnovers Jones had across two games against Olen's defense at UC San Diego last year.
Interestingly, New Mexico State hasn't won this game in Las Cruces since 2018, so the home crowd will be rocking and hopeful that the tides turn in the newest chapter of this matchup. - Matthew Winick
Sunday, November 16
A Game
#1 Houston (-6) vs. #35 Auburn, 3 PM ET, ESPN.
Houston's offense in the halfcourt hasn't exactly been a thing of beauty, which isn't necessarily anything different than other Kelvin Sampson offenses, as he often gives up a lot of freedom on that end in exchange for buy-in defensively. But still, the Cougars have the second lowest rim rate in the country (ironically only Louisiana is lower, coached by Sampson protege Quannas White). Kingston Flemings has been exceptional on the ball, but the real issue is Sampson doesn't have security blanket J'Wan Roberts in the post. JoJo Tugler has not been suited to that role offensively thus far, and Roberts' deep seals and mid post hub offense was vital to the Cougar scheme. Defensively it's been typical Cougars though, with total post denial through the Monster, and creating a 36% turnover rate on ball screen defense with the most destructive high hedge and trap in the history of the sport.
Keyshawn Hall's second least efficient game of the season unsurprisingly came against Houston last year
and Auburn doesn't have Johni Broome to pull the Houston frontcourt up and then kill them with these 45 and slot cuts, like he did last year in Auburn's win.
Auburn was an almost unheard of 20-28 on 2PT attempts against Houston's defense that game, totaling the second highest rim production against the Cougars last year as well. Auburn's new look frontcourt is rangy and athletic and they've been efficient at the rim and strong on the glass against a weak noncon to date, but Houston is the ultimate test in that regard. Auburn's execution within their flex and ball screen offense was arguably the best Houston's set defense saw all season (only Gonzaga scored more efficiently in the halfcourt against Houston last year), but that was all predicated on Broome's mobility to draw out and then cut against the aggression of the Cougar defense. I'm not sure this Auburn offense can replicate that, but I also have severe concerns about Houston's offense on a game by game basis, especially with the freshmen they've relied on facing their first legitimate defense in a hostile "neutral" environment. This might be a little ugly from an aesthetic point of view. - Jordan Majewski
B Games
#10 Florida (-9) vs. #59 Miami FL, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN.
Florida’s title defense is off to a rocky start. The Gators got thrashed inside by Arizona and are coming off a disappointing mid-week home effort against Florida State. Of course, some of the struggles can be explained by a dismal 21.1% hit rate from downtown. The Gators’ two-way rebounding remains dominant (58-36 against FSU, top 25 in rate on both ends per KenPom).
Shot creation has been an issue with the new backcourt of Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland, however. Lacking a competent third guard has been a limitation as well, even with Thomas Haugh looking sharp to begin he campaign. The Gators have played through Alex Condon quite a bit, but he racked up 12 combined turnovers against Arizona and FSU. Miami has athletic bigs – particularly Ernest Udeh – and their guards will dig down and pester any sloppy handling.
Miami, meanwhile, has not had to run much of an offense yet. They have seen a ton of zone (55.4% of the time, per Synergy – 99th percentile), with both Stetson and Jacksonville junking it up frequently. The Hurricanes have also run in transition against their three awful buy game foes.
That means we still do not quite know what to expect from new coach Jai Lucas’ squad. Pitted against a disciplined man-to-man defense with dominant interior size, the Canes could have a rude awakening. Malik Reneau’s one-on-one post-up game will face stiff resistance, so expect a heavy burden to fall on Tre Donaldson in ball screens. I’m not sure he’s up to that task. - Jim Root
C Games
#70 Notre Dame at #34 Ohio State (-8), 12:30 PM ET, FS1.
The five-alarm fire that is Ohio State's interior defense calmed slightly thanks to not getting shredded by an awful App State offense, but when App actually shot better (12-31 vs. 11-32) against OSU than Central Michigan inside the perimeter, maybe I should be less calm. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 3-0 and I'm not sure anyone has seen a second of their games.
It's outdated logic but giving the coaching edge to Shrewsberry here is pretty easy, as an OSU defense that has gone all-in on packing it in to avoid getting demolished at the rim could get picked apart on the perimeter by Notre Dame's drive-and-kick scheme that's created a lot of open threes thus far. But: one of these teams has Bruce Thornton and the other does not. That may matter a little more if all else is equal. It may also not matter if a Notre Dame defense that's been excellent at forcing low-quality twos shows up. - Will Warren
#92 South Florida (-3) at #136 Kennesaw State, 2 PM ET, ESPN+.
Emotional game where Amir Abdur-Rahim will be remembered and honored by his former teams. On the court, we have a battle of the Nate Oats branches between Bryan Hodgson and Antoine Pettway. That means we have two transition heavy, pace and space offenses with high rim and 3 rates. There is a stylistic difference defensively however, as Hodgson's hire of Tobin Anderson has turned USF into a much more aggressive defense, and Izaiyah Nelson has been extremely effective high hedge big after being an extremely effective drop big at Arkansas State.
Simeon Cottle had some turnover issues against Florida A&M's ball pressure, and turnovers were an overall issue for the Owls all of last season as well. Worth noting KSU hasn't a home noncon game in the past 3 seasons, but USF's best shooters have severely underperformed from 3 thus far, which is a frightening ticking time bomb of positive regression for this offense. - Jordan Majewski
#65 Colorado State (-6) at #157 Loyola Chicago, 5 PM ET.
It’s been a smooth start to the Ali Farokhmanesh era in Fort Collins. The Rams are just as lethal and fun to watch as they were under Niko Medved, a natural expectation given how long Farokhmanesh was Medved’s right hand man. Colorado State is top five in the country in three-point attempt rate, assist rate, and effective field goal percentage.
In short, everyone can pass and everyone can shoot. No, seriously – the Rams have six players that are shooting 42.9 percent from three or better, including four at 50 percent or better.
Loyola Chicago has been at the other end of the spectrum. The Ramblers have lost three games in a row after beating Cleveland State at the buzzer in their opener, the latest coming against a Wichita State team that drilled 16 three-pointers against them.
Loyola’s clear path to victory is to limit Colorado State’s effectiveness from long range. It should be able to score enough on the other end if it can slow the Rams on the perimeter, which isn’t out of the question given the step up in competition this will be for CSU. - Brian Rauf
#117 UNLV at #55 Memphis (-12), 5 PM ET, ESPN
The start of the Josh Pastner era at UNLV has been shaky at best with a dominant victory over Chattanooga being sandwiched between disappointing home losses to UT Martin and Montana.
Now comes a major step up in competition against a Memphis team that has been similarly inconsistent. Take the first 24 minutes against San Francisco, first 10 against Ole Miss and the last 10 against the Rebels, and the Tigers have looked like a team that can hang with anyone. Take the last 16 against the Dons and middle 20 against Ole Miss and, well, you have a team that looks like it can lose to UNLV.
That has almost entirely come down to the defensive end for Penny Hardaway’s squad. They’re playing the high pressure style Hardaway has had success with, yet Memphis isn’t forcing turnovers – leading to a lot of fouls and open looks on the perimeter. They’re gambling without the payoff, leading to a lot of disorganized defensive possessions.
That’s what this game will likely boil down to. If Memphis can turn UNLV over (which, the Rebels had 22 of them in the loss to UT Martin), the Tigers will win easily. UNLV’s best chance is to take care of the ball and try to slow the game down. - Brian Rauf
#212 Incarnate Word at #17 Indiana (-23), 5:30 PM ET, BTN.
Indiana is scorching-hot to begin the Darian DeVries era, notching 98+ points in each of their three victories on .663 eFG% (fifth-best in the country). The Hoosiers are creating for each other well – 70.9% of FGM are assisted — and letting it fly from deep at a level not seen under the previous two head coaches. IU made more than 12 3s in a game only twice over the eight combined seasons under Archie Miller and Mike Woodson; it is averaging 12.7 made 3s per game so far this season under DeVries, thanks to Lamar Wilkerson and Tucker DeVries combining to start 27-for-48 (56.3%) from beyond the arc.
The Hoosiers hope to keep the barrage going against Incarnate Word. Efficiency could be there — Incarnate Word has finished bottom-60 in 3P% in back-to-back seasons — but keeping up the volume might be tricky. Incarnate Word surrendered 13-for-25 3-point shooting in its opener, but allowed the sixth-lowest 3-point attempt rate in the country last season (and the 77th-lowest the year prior). The Cardinals hope that back-to-back 30+-point wins over non-D1 opponents have them back on the right track after the season-opening loss to Colorado State (98-64).
Incarnate Word is the heavy underdog but is not without some notable early-season statlines. Tahj Staveskie is coming off a triple-double (29 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists) against Southwestern Christian, and already scored 27 against Colorado State. Harrison Reede scored 36 points on 12-for-18 from 3-point range against Jarvis Christian.
#77 Akron at #5 Purdue (-16), 7:30 PM ET, BTN.
Purdue is a veteran, extremely well coached and prepared team, but even they can be vulnerable to the inevitable sleepy spot on a quickish turnaround from the thriller in Tuscaloosa and then heading off to the Bahamas next week.
John Groce has been the ultimate chameleon stylistically during Akron tenure, but early returns certainly suggest he's sticking with the spread and shred offense he established with the Zips last season after years of ground and pound. And honestly, it's as good a strategy against Purdue as any other. Alabama obviously tried it with some success, doubling up their 2PT attempts with 44 3PT attempts and it kept them competitive despite getting ran ragged in PNR defense and on the offensive glass. Speaking of, Akron naturally plays a small ball 5 in this scheme with Amani Lyles (who I love as an elite rim protector for his size), but that's going to lead to a crushing on any Purdue misses they do induce. Last year this same lineup gave up a 51% offensive rebounding rate to St. Mary's and 46% to Arizona. In fact, that St. Mary's OOC game is a fairly good comp for this one, as the Gaels are structured personnel wise and schematically similarly (at least offensively) to the Boilers. The Zips were never competitive in that game, despite shooting 13-28 from 3. But essentially this is a replay of the Bama game for Purdue, so who knows, maybe the Zips just flamethrow from beyond the arc and stay competitive. - Jordan Majewski
#111 Troy (-5) at #230 CSUN, 8 PM ET, ESPN+.
Troy's westward swing continues with a visit to a completely new CSUN roster that predictably has played like they just met each other a month ago. Andy Newman's squad has a -12.2 turnover margin per 100 possessions, which is less than ideal when playing Troy's high-pressure perimeter scheme that funnels everything inside and is routinely excellent at snuffing out driving/passing lanes.
Still, some positive indicators exist for the Matadors. Troy has been horrific on the boards thus far outside of Thomas Dowd, which isn't super surprising but could be deadly against CSUN's Mahmoud Fofana and Grady Lewis. (Also, Josh O'Garro. Never forget Josh O'Garro.) Basically, this is a variance game that I wouldn't want to try and predict, as CSUN mostly seems content to sit deep defensively and let opponents bomb away. Troy loves taking threes and has hit them quite well so far, but I doubt they'll shoot 40.2% from deep forever. Worth monitoring. - Will Warren