Earlier this week, I published my annual transfer rankings, which grade every single DI-to-DI transfer this offseason. The entire list and team ranks, equipped with a player archetype, a conference comparison, and a handful of notes for each transfer, can be found here.
My grades and rankings are different from a typical list. I don't use points per game – or any counting stats. I heavily weigh fit and play style into the equation. I use advanced stats to try and project a player's role and ability, adjusting for conference level and any other factors.
It's far from a perfect exercise, but the combination of smart numbers and basketball nuance allows my sheet to spit out rankings that will deviate from what the computers and the eye-test experts tell you.
Through this, I'm able to identify players that have the chance to be ultra valuable to their new teams next year – and may be slipping under the radar nationally. The transfer portal's All-Underrated Team features no players in 247Sports's top 50 transfers, and three outside the top 100. But all five received an "A" grade in my rankings.
Point Guard: Moe Odum, Arizona State
Previous School: Pepperdine
Player Archetype: On-Ball Guard
Big 12 Comp: Elijah Hawkins
There's no better passer in the county than new Arizona State floor general Moe Odum. He slightly edged out Purdue star Braden Smith to lead the country in assist rate last year, and led the WCC in that stat each of the last three seasons, beating out prolific point guard Ryan Nembhard the last two. Whether it's a lookahead in transition, a simple swing, or in his favorite pick-and-roll sets, Odum makes a smart pass look simple, and a superb pass look ordinary.
It wasn't all that hard to find these clips of Odum, because all of them came in a four-day span. Pepperdine's cinderella run to the WCC Tournament semifinals last year was Odum's coming out party – 37 assists to just 12 turnovers, but more importantly, at least 17 points in each contest while shooting 14/29 from deep. It's fair to say that without his Las Vegas surge, Odum may not have jumped to the high major level for his last season of college basketball.
The scoring piece was so vital and notable because Odum has struggled to put the ball in the hoop at times in his career. His three games of 3+ threes at the WCC Tournament only upped his career tally to 11 such instances. But the arrow has been pointing up for Odum as a shooter throughout his career. His 3-point and free throw numbers have improved dramatically since his freshman campaign, peaking at a level where he and now-UCLA star Donovan Dent were the only two players in the top 30 of assist rate to shoot both 50% from inside the arc and 37% from outside of it.
Odum is a very unique shooter in the sense that he's far, far better off the dribble than off the catch. He put up a sparkling 60.7% effective field goal percentage and 1.21 points per possession on dribble jumpers last year, and just a 41.2% eFG and 0.82 PPP on catch-and-shoot attempts. It makes him pretty useless as a floor spacer and an off-ball guard, but considering he's as good an on-ball playmaker as there is in the sport, that's far less of a problem than meets the eye.
Meanwhile, his increased prowess as a dribble shooter only makes him that much more terrifying in the pick-and-roll. Not only is he an elite passer out of that action, Odum was in the 85th percentile of pick-and-roll scorers at 54.1% eFG and 0.97 PPP. For reference, Smith was at 45.9% eFG (0.80 PPP) and Nembhard put up a 45.5% eFG (0.83 PPP). If you play a deep drop, he'll put up one of his patented floaters. If you play up, he'll either make the right read or turn the corner. If you switch a big on him, he'll blow by him. And with his new 3-point jumper, if you go under, he'll beat you from up top as well.
The last two gripes on Odum are that he's too small to play Power 5 basketball, and that he's never played on a winning team. In a way, they're somewhat the same argument. Yes, Odum is listed at 6-foot-1, 160 pounds. And yes, Odum's three years at Pacific and Pepperdine have resulted in a 34-66 record with a 11-39 WCC record. But the flip side to that is Odum's teams have been simply hopeless when he sits.
Two years ago on one of the worst WCC teams in history, Pacific had an ungodly -40.8 net rating when Odum sat versus a still horrible -19.2 when he was on the floor. But that +21.7 on/off differential was in the 98th percentile nationally, per CBB Analytics. Yet that was topped last year at Pepperdine, where the Waves were an unreal +29.6 net rating points better when Odum was on the floor versus off, a 99th percentile mark. And even with his lack of size, both teams were better defensively and on the glass with Odum in the game. There's undoubtedly some nuance there, like how bad Pepperdine's bench was last year, and how Odum rarely sat. But the proof is in the individual games: the three times Odum played less than 28 minutes last year, Pepperdine lost by 52, 20, and 30.
Arizona State didn't give Odum a whole lot to work with in the transfer portal, and the Sun Devils rank third from last amongst Big 12 teams in my transfer rankings. Odum's scoring efficiency will likely dip to some extent playing against better athletes on a potentially mismatched roster. But he'll be given the keys to the car in Bobby Hurley's pick-and-roll heavy offense, and his unmatched passing ability, improved shooting, and clear value to on-court performance should be the best thing ASU has going for them next year.
Shooting Guard: Jamar Brown, UCLA
Previous School: Kansas City
Player Archetype: Versatile Wing
Big Ten Comp: Chibuzo Agbo
On a list of five underrated transfers, Brown ranks as the most under the radar. He ranked 345th in 247Sports' transfer rankings, behind guys like New Mexico State's Jemel Jones and Bethune Cookman's Doctor Bradley. Brown is a late-bloomer who was focused on football until high school and started his career at the JUCO level. He showed flashes of success as a junior at Kansas City and turned into a full-fledged star as a shooter and rebounder for the Roos last season. He became just the second player in Basketball-Reference's history to put up an 11% offensive rebounding rate paired with a 40% 3-point mark on over 60 makes, joining future NBA veteran Robert Covington at Tennessee State.
As a scorer, Brown is much better off-ball than on it. He put up a 59.2% eFG on catch-and-shoot jumpers, compared to just 41.5% off the bounce. That catch-and-shoot clip is even more impressive which you consider only 26.8% of his attempts were unguarded, which is a 3rd percentile mark nationally. Sure enough, on a team without serious dribble creation and limited shotmaking, Brown had to take and make some extremely challenging shots, and yet he still shot 40% when guarded off the catch.
While Brown shot a modest 33.5% off the catch in his first D-I season, his monstrous 44.7% clip in his last year of JUCO and his sparkling 89% career free throw percentage on 189 attempts last season makes its clear that he's a natural shooter. Headed to UCLA and playing alongside one of the game's best guards in Dent, and a strong secondary creator in Skyy Clark, Brown's shot diet will consist of far more assisted looks than last year, where over 42% of his field goals were unassisted.
This change in role will allow Brown to be far more efficient, which is saying something after he posted a top-300 true shooting rate last year. He shot just 7-for-29 on pick-and-roll possessions last year, and put up a very poor 8% assist rate. He could become one of the most efficient wings in the country by cutting out most of his creation attempts and sticking to his assisted threes, and his straight-line drives to the rim, where he's a terrific 60.1% at the hoop.
However, to be an elite role player in the Big Ten, you need more than one calling card, and Brown is also a terrific rebounder for his position. He was fourth in the Summit League in offensive rebounding percentage at just 6-foot-5, behind three big men. Beyond his individual numbers, Kansas City was a wildly better rebounding team when Brown was playing. Their offensive rebounding percentage jumped 6.8% when Brown was on the floor versus off, and their defensive rebounding surged 5.9%. Both of those numbers were within the top 5% nationally. His background as a football player gives him both great physicality and a knack for finding the ball in a crowd.
His activity does more than just provide second chances for his team. He's also a terrific scorer on putbacks and his 1.43 points per possession on those plays last year put him ninth nationally amongst those with 50+ possessions. Every other player in the top 20 was a big. It's not like he's skying over defenders either; he uses his strength and positioning to flip up his putbacks.
Brown's glass crashing should be a perfect fit in head coach Mick Cronin's system, especially given UCLA's offensive rebounding percentage the last two seasons were the lowest and third-lowest a Cronin team has ever put up. Combine that with his floor spacing and solid wing size alongside a smaller backcourt, and it's going to be very hard for the Bruins to keep Brown off the floor next season. While he may start the season off the bench, don't be surprised if he finds his way into the starting five before the season comes to a close.
Small Forward: Lajae Jones, Florida State
Previous School: St. Bonaventure
Player Archetype: 3-and-D Wing
ACC Comp: Drake Powell
New Florida State head coach Luke Loucks comes from an NBA background (which you can read about in-depth here), and he scooped up perhaps the most prototypical NBA-style 3-and-D wing on the market in Jones. With a couple of tweaks to Jones' shot diet to make his game more analytically friendly, the player has the chance to be a two-way menace with top-tier athleticism and length at the three.
The first part of the patented 3-and-D player is, of course, being a good outside shooter. Jones was a really strong 40.5% on catch-and-shoot 3s last year, and was coming off an absurd shooting campaign in his one year at JUCO, where he torched the nets with a 52.6% clip off the catch from deep. His overall jump shooting numbers tailed off thanks to a 23.5% mark on his 17 dribble threes and an overall 20.5% mid-range jumper rate, two factors that are likely to be cut out of his shooting profile.
In nearly every case, a non-playmaker shouldn't be a shot creator, either. Jones put up a ghastly 3.4% assist rate last season, second-last in the A10. That number is fine if you're a true off-ball player, like last place in Richmond's Jason Roche who made 96% of his shots off an assist, but Jones was only at 52% assisted field goals. His insistence on getting his off the bounce saw his layup efficiency plummet to a brutal 46.6%, which is far too low for an elite athlete at 6-foot-7. Look at the difference in his finishing off his dribble creation versus an assist.
While the offense can be tinkered with slightly in order to maximize Jones' strengths, the defensive side of the ball is already in full form. Jones is the rare player who was nationally ranked in both steal and block rate in KenPom's database, and St. Bonaventure allowed an effective field goal percentage 6.7% lower when Jones was on the floor versus off, a 98th% mark.
Jones is equal parts disruptive and versatile defensively, with the length and athleticism to guard nearly any player on the court. He can guard up at the point of attack, but also has tremendous instincts off the ball, coming up with weak-side steals when teams try and skip the ball against him.
Jones is an awesome fit on this Florida State team. Not only will his 3-and-D archetype compliment the NBA style of Loucks, but his eye-popping athleticism and transition ability will allow the Seminoles to speed up the pace whenever necessary. And playing next to dribble creators like Robert McCray and Martin Sommerville, or a shotmaker like Kobe MaGee should allow Jones' offensive repertoire to simplify and make him all the more valuable as a player. Though he won't lead the team in scoring, don't be surprised if he's the best NBA prospect of the roster come next June.
Power Forward: Mouhamed Dioubate, Kentucky
Previous Team: Alabama
Player Archetype: Two-Way Forward
SEC Comp: N/A (Played in conference)
From an analytical and rate stat perspective, Mouhamed Dioubate is coming off the most efficient all-around season in college basketball history. His 65.1% effective field goal percentage, 18.8% rebounding rate, and 3%+ steal and block rates had never all been tallied in the same season before. And yet, Dioubate has never started a game in his two seasons of D-I basketball at Kentucky's SEC rival, Alabama. He was a per-possession darling with the Crimson Tide, but could truly blossom as the starting-4 in a Mark Pope offensive system that is perfect for his skillset.
Dioubate's combination of wing speed and forward strength allows him to be a total mismatch with the ball in his hands offensively. If you put a smaller guy on him, he'll back his man down to the rim. If you put a traditional forward or big on him, he'll blow by him and get to the rim. Either way, he'll find himself at the hoop. Seventy-nine percent of his field goals were at the basket last year, and he took an average of one rim field goal every 4.4 minutes on the floor. He was also an elite finisher at the hoop at 63.4%, scoring off drives, cuts, and rolls.
The last clip of Dioubate scoring off a backdoor cut is the most applicable to Kentucky's offense. While Alabama's penetration was all from their guards, Pope's scheme plays through their big man up top as a facilitator. The Wildcats attempted 223 field goals off of cuts, which was in the 81st%, and last year's 4-man Andrew Carr was the main recipient. With kindness to Carr, the significantly more athletic and physical Dioubate has a chance to feast off that action. Even if his 46.2% clip from deep on extremely low volume doesn't hold (likely given he's a sub-60% free throw shooter), his gravity towards the rim off the ball and his ability to get to the line at an elite rate will make him a constant threat to burn a defense.
That said, Dioubate's strength on the glass may be his greatest skill. Though his minutes percentage was 0.4% away from qualifying on KenPom's leaderboard, he would have been one of just 16 players to put up a 13% offensive rebounding rate and 24% defensive rebounding rate, and would have been the shortest player to do so at 6-foot-7. He crushed the Wildcats with 21 rebounds in just 51 minutes last season, and a Kentucky team losing monstrous rebounder Amari Williams will surely need Dioubate's production.
Defensively is where Dioubate has the most upside. He's as versatile defensively as he is offensively, switching onto nearly any player and holding an advantage. But he could serve to be more engaged and intelligent on that end, often gambling for steals and leaving himself out of position. He's still valuable, but he has the chance to be an All-SEC defender if he becomes more consistent. But when he's in a matchup where he's locked in (like this duel against Ace Bailey) or when he can get a deflection leading to transition, he's as effective as any defender in the sport.
The fully realized version of Dioubate is truly one of the most dominant players in college basketball. His mobile and powerful frame combined with his finishing ability and off-ball movement in one of the best passing systems in the game is a tantalizing combination of offensive talents. And his rebounding and defense will prop up a Wildcats squad that was weak in those areas last year. It's a bit of a gamble to expect Dioubate's unmatched rate stats to hold with higher minutes and responsibility, but he's in the perfect situation to make it happen.
Center: Jacob Cofie, USC
Previous School: Virginia
Player Archetype: Combo Big
Big Ten Comp: Kwame Evans
Simply put, Cofie is the perfect blend of safe floor and sky-high upside, and should be the starting 5-man on a completely revamped USC team. With all due respect to Virginia and interim head coach Ron Sanchez, Cofie wasn't necessarily put in positions to succeed last year, and yet he still finished amongst the ACC's Top 10 in both steal and block rate while rebounding well and scoring at the rim at a solid clip. Cofie's athleticism for a 6-foot-10 big really jumps off the page, which is unfortunate because he played at a snail's pace and often next to another lumbering big for the Cavaliers.
Assuming he doesn't play next to massive human Gabe Dynes, Cofie will strictly be a five in a much more offensively dynamic and modern USC scheme, where he'll be able to play in transition more than the pitiful nine possessions he had in those situations as a freshman, in which he shot 8-for-9. Imagine Cofie getting easy baskets in the open floor once a game, instead of once a month.
Cofie's length and activity, paired with his upper-tier mobility for his size makes him a menacing defender, and one that can play in any scheme. He was the only freshman in the country to boast a steal rate over 3% and a block rate over 4.5% in at least 500 minutes, and he joined Kwame Evans and Zion Williamson as the only other high-major freshman to put up those defensive stats in the last decade. More than that, Cofie was the best defensive on/off big on the Cavaliers' roster, finishing +9 in defensive rating when he was on the floor compared to off the court, and Virginia's opponents saw their effective field goal percentage dip nearly 3% with Cofie roaming around.
The aforementioned Evans at Oregon represents the safe floor for Cofie, an uber-athletic, multi-positional defender and solid rebounder. But Evans has only been a part-time player for the Ducks because he's a bit too thin to play the 5 and his jumper has never developed. Cofie is 15 pounds heavier than Evans, but he's also not much of a post-up guy, which makes the development of his jumper all the more important.
While Cofie shot just 24.4% from deep as a freshman, this is worth breaking down further. He combined to shoot 4/24 (16.6%) off the dribble and when contested, and 6/16 (37.5%) unguarded off the catch. The shot form looks solid, especially when he doesn't hesitate to let it fly. His 75% clip from the charity stripe also suggests he may have further shooting upside.
Suddenly, an athletic 5-man who does all the typical big man stuff, is an elite defender, and knocks down threes is a very enticing piece in the Big Ten. But wait – there's more. Cofie also posted a 11.2% assist rate, which isn't anything to write home about, but considering some of the flashes he showed in an offense that is truly designed for him to have zero self creation, those flashes open up some fascinating possibilities under Eric Musselman and how he empowers all his players to be versatile offensively.
And so in Cofie's final form, where he can defend, rebound, shoot, and even tease a floor game, he suddenly becomes one of the offseason's most valuable transfers with three years of eligibility remaining. We've seen examples of defensively-inclined Virginia frontcourt players spread their wings outside of the old system, and while Cofie is no Ryan Dunn, he could flash a lot of things in Los Angeles that he simply wasn't able to in Charlottesville.
All-Underrated Transfer Second Team
G: Myles Rigsby, Tulsa
G: Obi Agbim, Baylor
F: Baba Miller, Cincinnati
F: Paul Otieno, Saint Louis
C: Quincy Ballard, Mississippi State
