Hello! If you missed part one, a lot of those tournaments have already finished but it gives you a good idea of what we're working with here. This is part two, with the remaining 12 tournaments of Feast Week covered. I think this puts us at an even 24 previewed and dissected, which is pretty good.
For the tournaments listed, we’ll break the field into the following:
- FAVORITES: Teams who enter with a 25% chance or better to win their tournament. (Maui excluded.)
- DARKHORSES: Teams somewhere in the 10-25% range. (Maui excluded; this became 5-20%.)
- UNDERDOGS: Everybody below 10%.
For tournaments with four teams, those ranges become 40%, 15-40%, and <15%.
Your categories for watchability are as follows.
- FIRST PLATE: The best of the best, and precisely what you want in your life this coming week-plus. (Example: Maui.)
- SECOND HELPING: The best of the rest. These don’t take priority, but perhaps there’s something here that’s missing in the first group and is worth one’s time. (Example: Charleston Classic.)
- LEFTOVERS: This is where you really gotta like something to get into it, because you’re already stuffed with the top two groups. And you’ve probably got to be creative in how you consume these. (Example: Paradise Jam.)
- FOOD POISONING: Unless you are really, truly desperate, I would not consume any of these, as they are medically inadvisable. (Example: Pensacola Invitational.)
All odds listed are via Bart Torvik's website, so take it up with him. All REQUIRED PREDICTIONS BY JOURNALISTIC LAW are randomly assigned. Here is how I do it:
- Go to RANDOM.org;
- See what number comes up between 1 and 100;
- Match that to the odds on the chart.
These predictions may or may not be what I actually believe will happen, but honestly, it’s easier than investing a lot of brain power into 10% of a team’s season.
Onward!
Coconut Hoops (Royal Palm Division)
Championship game: Wednesday, November 26 at 1:30 PM ET, Flo Sports
FAVORITES: Belmont (51.9%) and Troy (40.2%). Boy, I can't wait to watch a tournament with two good teams and two bad ones. Belmont is fortunate to draw Saint Francis here, whose best performance thus far is...boy. A 36-point road loss at Oklahoma that was a five-point game with 15 minutes left? A 74-66 home loss to Mount St. Mary's?
Troy does draw the more competent Toledo, but considering Toledo's defense is firmly in the 300s right now this is not exactly my seal of approval. We're biding our time until a Troy/Belmont final (69% shot of happening), which features your usual lovely Belmont offense against a super-scrappy Troy team that nearly beat USC and DID beat San Diego State.
DARKHORSE: none
UNDERDOGS: Toledo (6.8%) and Saint Francis (1.2%). No need to touch on Saint Francis. Toledo's defensive outings in five D1 games: 1.19, 1.2, 1.07, 1.09, and 1.01 PPP allowed to five teams outside of the KenPom top 150. Their own offense is good and has been really good at getting downhill, but you gotta get stops sometimes, guys.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Troy/Belmont. We don't need anything else. We're good.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Belmont over Troy in a great final.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Leftovers. Nothing about this is bad, but you really have to squint to see the upside. I almost put this in the Food Poisoning category before thinking better of it. It's outside of it entirely because of a Belmont/Troy title game.
Acrisure Holiday Invitational
Championship game: Wednesday, November 26 at 4:30 PM ET, CBSSN
FAVORITE: Northern Iowa (48.7%). Northern Iowa always strikes me as the least-exciting kind of mid-major: one that is simply really competent. Do they play an exciting style of offensive basketball? No, not really. Do they play up-tempo, at least? No, they're in the 5th-percentile in transition usage. Okay! Well, do they run anything interesting defensively? No, they're entirely man-to-man and allow nothing in transition.
They force a ton of turnovers and have been incredible defensively, but I would wager this has more to do with their competition thus far and the fact they're very, very old. As such: a great mid-major defense that I can't say riles me up from a watchability standpoint. This does not mean I dislike them, just that for a neutral you've gotta know what to expect.
DARKHORSES: Tulsa (26.9%) and Loyola Chicago (14.8%). Tulsa is shockingly competent in a way I didn't see coming: a neutral-site beatdown of Rhode Island and a near-upset of Kansas State are two really good results. Slapped in between was an awful performance against Oral Roberts where they were really lucky not to lose. Loyola, meanwhile, has been a profoundly depressing team to watch. They've experienced extremely bad shooting luck, so this is possibly the lowest you can buy low on them...if you're into that?
UNDERDOG: San Jose State (9.6%). 0-3 against Division I competition, none of the games terribly close. Colby Garland is on the heater of a lifetime, though.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Tulsa/Northern Iowa. Old-school MVC conference game! I like this because it's a good test of if Tulsa is for real this year...and also of how legitimate the UNI defense is. As much as I've poo-pooed this I do like this potential game.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: No alarms and no surprises: Northern Iowa over Tulsa. Loyola at least defeats San Jose State to get something out of this.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Leftovers. Eh. I'm happy Tulsa looks alright but I would've liked this more if Loyola wasn't so bad.
Players Era Championship
Championship game: Wednesday, November 26 at 9:30 PM ET, TNT
Look: there aren't really odds for this. This is the STUPIDEST FORMAT OF ANY TOURNAMENT IN EXISTENCE, and the champion will probably be the seventh-best team in the field. So: instead, here is each's team's odds of going 2-0, and therefore having at least a chance to make the championship game.
- Houston (54.8%)
- Michigan (50.2%)
- Kansas (49.7%)
- Gonzaga (45%)
- St. John's (34.2%)
- Alabama (32%)
- Iowa State (29.4%)
- Tennessee (28.6%)
- Oregon (26.1%)
- Creighton (22.8%)
- Notre Dame (19.1%)
- Auburn (18.7%)
- Maryland (16.5%)
- Baylor (14.2%)
- San Diego State (10.1%)
- UNLV (6.8%)
- Rutgers (5.4%)
- Syracuse (5.1%)
Your most likely final is Houston/Michigan, but your second-most likely is Houston/Kansas, which is already a conference game. The odds imply an average of 4-5 teams finishing 2-0, which means you get to see tiebreakers upon tiebreakers decide not only the title game, but everything else. This is what's destroying the Maui Invitational. I hate this event with the fury of a thousand suns.
Would you like to see how it looks if it were an actual 18-team bracket, odds-wise? Oh, of course you would.
Not any dumber than the actual event.
FAVORITES: Houston, Michigan, Kansas, Gonzaga. I do think that it's more likely than not the 'final' this idiot tournament presents offers two of these four teams. Houston gets to play Syracuse, Kansas draws Notre Dame and Syracuse, and Gonzaga gets Maryland. Actually, Kansas has great odds if they simply don't stumble. Notre Dame and Syracuse??? This is also without factoring in Darryn Peterson seems >50% to play at some point in this event, which would boost Kansas's odds dramatically.
DARKHORSES: St. John's, Alabama, Iowa State, Tennessee, Oregon, Creighton. These are all teams that are underdogs or very slight favorites in one of their two games, but do have at least a solid (20%+) shot at going 2-0. Of these, I think Tennessee or Alabama probably has the best shot. Tennessee plays Rutgers today, the worst team in this field. Alabama plays UNLV tomorrow, the second-worst team in this field. All they have to do is beat one opponent by double digits and sneak past their other opponent, which is not an impossible task.
UNDERDOGS: Notre Dame, Auburn, Maryland, Baylor, San Diego State. These are all very unlikely, but of them, Notre Dame has the most feasible path to a surprise championship game bid. For one, they play Rutgers in the early game Tuesday, which should be an obvious win if they're playing well. The other aspect is that they draw a should-be Peterson-less Kansas, which gives them a good shot at an upset. They're probably the least-good team in this underdog pack but have the most favorable schedule by far.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: I mean, I'm begging for Houston/Gonzaga. That's my dream game because it might be the two best teams in the sport this year. I don't know if we'll get it, but the upside of the Worst Tournament in Human History is the sheer number of good games you get through it. Sometimes, you do have to hand it to ISIS.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Actually a pretty mild simulation: Houston over St. John's. That would mean St. John's won their two games by at least 20 points...I think? Or maybe they were next-best of the 2-0 teams? Who knows. Stupid.
WATCHABILITY RATING: First Plate as actual basketball and Food Poisoning as a format. I cannot describe how much I hope this goes away. I do not want this to exist next year. Save Maui.
Acrisure Classic
Championship game: Wednesday, November 26 at 9:30 PM ET, CBSSN
FAVORITE: Iowa (46.3%). The Hawkeyes look the part of a Ben McCollum team so far in at least one sense: they are getting insanely good looks from two. They sit at 70% from two through five games, which is one thing, but Synergy grades out their overall shot quality in the top-15 nationally and their two-point looks in the 96th-percentile. I'm not surprised by this given McCollum's past, and as always, I should note that Iowa's SOS is 301st to date. Still: phenomenally effective half-court offense, and it's been without Brendan Hausen factoring in all that much. I like 'em.
DARKHORSE: Ole Miss (26.8%). The good news: AJ Storr looks like himself again, and Ilias Kamardine has looked very good. The bad news: they're not all that physical, which is disappointing for a team coached by Chris Beard. Adjusted for SOS, the Rebs sit in the 22nd-percentile in forcing turnovers, have shot just 52% from two against the 330th-ranked schedule, and have allowed some pretty bad offenses (Cal State Bakersfield, Austin Peay, UL-Monroe) to have pretty decent days against them. I think this will look more like his first team (in terms of offense > defense) than his second one at Ole Miss.
UNDERDOGS: Grand Canyon (14.3%) and Utah (12.6%). As usual with all Grand Canyon games, one must assume the presence of their fans at this game will outweigh the other fanbases and their attendance. This is a neutral comment and I will go no further; I'll simply say they look bad offensively but good on the boards. Utah is in a Year Zero situation and just lost at home to Cal Poly. At least Terrence Brown and Keanu Dawes are good?
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Very, very obviously Iowa/Ole Miss. Just one problem: that's already a semifinal. So I go Iowa/Utah simply because Utah runs better offensive stuff.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: A no surprises, no fun final: Iowa over Grand Canyon by 18. This would really let the hype train go, huh?
WATCHABILITY RATING: Second Helping. Is "frustratingly good" a term here? I feel that this is very close to being a top-dog status, but needed one more good team in it. Not their fault that Utah is in a gap year or that GCU looks like an 8-loss Mountain West team.
Battle 4 Atlantis
Championship game: Friday, November 28 at 1 PM ET, ESPN2
FAVORITE: Vanderbilt (45.8%). Vandy has looked unimpeachable so far, which is partially due to a terrible opening schedule. Even so, I would argue that scoring 100+ in four of your five games and 92 in the fifth, all on 75 possessions or fewer, is quite the indicator for an offense I had top-five in the preseason and now worry I was somehow too low on. Are they good defensively? Well, 93 to UCF and 75 to Arkansas Pine Bluff would indicate a "reply hazy, try again" via the Magic 8 Ball, which is what this tournament should be for.
DARKHORSE: Saint Mary's (26.5%). Here is a team that kicks ass. SMC has played five home games, all against top-200 KenPom teams; none of them were closer than an 85-72 win over Arkansas State that SMC led by 18 with five minutes to play. They're incredible on the boards as we expect every year now, but Mikey Lewis appears to be making The Leap into an actual mid-major superstar that could push SMC to their first Sweet Sixteen since 2010...or their first Elite Eight since 1959. Dare to dream!
UNDERDOGS: Virginia Tech (7%), VCU (6.8%), South Florida (6.7%), and Colorado State (5.4%). This is a loose collection of teams with highly different vibes, three of which have new coaches. I don't know what to expect from any of them, and they each have serious upside in one place or another...so I'm punting. I just talked to the Magic 8 Ball once more, and it said "concentrate and ask again." Rothstein said you can ignore your family when these guys play.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Vandy/SMC. I want a rematch of the Round of 64. Other acceptable games: Vandy/VA Tech, Vandy/Colorado State, SMC/VCU, SMC/South Florida, VA Tech/VCU, VA Tech/South Florida. This is a great field.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: A very mild upset: Saint Mary's over Vanderbilt in an all-favorites field, outside of VCU winning a coin-flip over USF in the opening round.
WATCHABILITY RATING: First Plate, and you can deal with it. This is the goods, folks!
ESPN Events Invitational - Imagination Bracket
Championship game: Friday, November 28 at 3 PM ET, ESPN2
FAVORITE: Illinois State (41.6%). I've been a tad underwhelmed by ISUred through the early slate, but it's just that: early. Plus, they do own a win over a decent Cornell team, and some amount of shooting regression is owed their way. It doesn't fix an inability to protect the rim or force turnovers, but just ignore all of that and focus on the good offense. It's good!
DARKHORSE: Richmond (33.8%). This Richmond team looks to be their best since the 12-seed that upset Iowa, but it's coming via a new formula that I'm excited to see tested out here and in the future: a super packed-in defense that allows a ton of catch-and-shoot threes, which has enabled them to have the single lowest share of rim attempts allowed through four games at Synergy. That part is good because Richmond's rim protection once you get there is very bad indeed, so they'll need to keep packing it in and hope for the best.
UNDERDOGS: Furman (12.8%) and Charlotte (11.8%). Two Carolinas teams, one of which has looked shockingly poor thus far. Furman has possessions that look like they've never met each other, which I thought was possible with a freshman PG and a new starter at the 2...but it's baffling to me that they haven't established more in the frontcourt despite returning almost everything of use. Charlotte has looked...fine. I don't know, not much exciting to report.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Richmond/Illinois State. Not much exposition necessary. I'd be fine with any of the options, though.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Richmond over Charlotte in a one-point win. Illinois State surprisingly goes 0-2.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Leftovers. I considered moving this one tier up, but I want to be more confident that any of these teams are going to be serious factors in their respective conferences. Furman should find their way back, but Illinois State looks like the fifth-best team in the MVC, and Charlotte and Richmond are swimming in deep waters.
Acrisure Holiday Classic
Championship game: Friday, November 28 at 4:30 PM ET, TruTV
FAVORITE: Washington (43.9%). Despite coming into this as the favorite, Washington has probably looked the least-good of these four teams so far. The backcourt of Peterson/Mandaquit/Yates III is considerably clunkier than I personally thought it would be, and Hannes Steinbach has had to save their bacon in stinkers like the Southern game and a pretty bad outing against Denver. It's no surprise they're bad defensively, but a super-high reliance on points in transition and post-rebound scrambles is a bad sign to me. They look like a team that either has too few or too many ideas and I don't know which.
DARKHORSE: San Francisco (31.2%). Conversely, USF knows what they are and how to get there. They're very good in the post, have a litany of good shooters, and have created some excellent looks via downhill drive-and-kicks. I like watching them a lot, which is usually the kiss of death for any fledgling good basketball team.
UNDERDOGS: Colorado (18.1%) and Nevada (6.8%). Colorado is...fun?!?!?!? Maybe? They're playing extremely fast offensively right now and seem to have zero interest at all in jumpers, which will go very poorly against certain teams. Still, at least they're fun this year. You can be bad if you're fun. Nevada, like any Steve Alford team, is addicted to the midrange. Less good: they are really, really bad defensively right now, and the only thing they do well as a team is rebound. Bad news for them: every other team in this field is good at rebounding.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: I still want Washington/San Francisco above all, but honestly, Colorado/Washington would still be pretty good. I'm afraid I simply don't want Nevada in this final, sorry.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: A real shocker! Colorado over Washington in a former Pac-12 battle. San Fran wins the consolation game.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Second Helping. This is actually pretty good! I'm really into the San Fran/Washington pairing, Colorado has played quite well offensively so far, and Nevada will certainly play basketball.
Rady Children's Invitational
Championship game: Friday, November 28 at 5:30 PM ET, FOX
FAVORITE: Florida (53.9%).
DARKHORSE: Wisconsin (31.4%). There's an 85% chance one of these two teams wins this mini-tournament and a 56% chance of this being the title game. I really hope it comes true, because the Wisconsin offense is a thrilling watch and part of an archetype of offense I've seen give Florida's defense trouble before under Todd Golden. This particular mix of Florida talent has been surprisingly susceptible to P&R operators that can create their own open shot (Nick Boyd, check) and guards who can hit jumpers off the dribble (John Blackwell, check). The main question would be if Wisconsin can hold up defensively.
UNDERDOGS: Providence (7.6%) and TCU (7.1%). My understanding is that Providence hired a defense-first assistant in the offseason, which is something that does not appear to be working on the surface. Then again: they've been unlucky shooting-wise (37% 3PT, 77% FT allowed), have fixed their fouling issue from last year, and are steady on the boards. Maybe? TCU...well, at least they force turnovers and protect the rim. They've got the look of a 6-12 Big 12 team to me.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Florida/Wisconsin. Honestly, Florida/Providence is also pretty fun because Providence scores a lot and can't defend. I'm just not very intrigued by TCU, sorry.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Florida over Wisconsin in a surprise double-digit win. All is right with the Gators once more.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Second Helping. This is about how good of a game Florida/Wisconsin would be, and considering the ~56% shot of that game happening it's worth the grade bump from Leftovers. Even Florida/Providence would be fun as described. They needed one more fun team here, because TCU isn't it.
Acrisure Invitational
Championship game: Friday, November 28 at 7 PM ET, TruTV
FAVORITE: None!
DARKHORSES: The entire field. This is the most wide-open tournament we've got this year. Also, all of these teams are pretty fun! You need no introduction to Saint Louis, who has Robbie Avila and a cast of fun characters. Minnesota is resurgent under Niko Medved, and the Cade Tyson redemption arc is something any breathing human can get behind. Santa Clara is 5-0 and has a top-25 offense with all priors removed. Stanford? Possibly still a year away, but with freshman Ebuka Okorie (an absurd 141 ORtg on 26% Usage%), this might actually be Kyle Smith's breakout year.
UNDERDOGS: n/a
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: I go Saint Louis/Minnesota. I would be fine with basically any combination because of the equality of the teams involved, but SLU is easily the most exciting long-term and Minnesota is really, really fun to watch.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Surprise! Stanford over Saint Louis, which would be a missed opportunity for the Bills. Santa Clara goes 0-2.
WATCHABILITY RATING: First Plate. Here's what you're gonna do when you read this: you're gonna suck it up and agree with me. "But there's no top-50 teams!" And? All of these teams are good. All of them are fun. All of them will struggle to garner full attention on packed nights. This is the time to tune in and learn, and I look forward to doing so. Are you seriously going to watch Bengals/Ravens instead? Are you a baby?
ESPN Events Invitational (Magic Bracket)
Championship game: Friday, November 28 at 7 PM ET, ESPN
FAVORITE: BYU (54.3%). Well, yeah. I mean I do want to figure out if BYU's going to run an offense that I actually like watching, because I adored last year's and am a little dismayed that this year's appears to be "my turn, your turn" with Rob Wright and Dybantsa. But, like, read the two names that are operating this offense. It's really not that bad. I'll get past it.
DARKHORSE: Georgetown (19.1%) and Miami FL (17.2%). Two highly frisky teams with serious up-and-down variance that I think could be really good or could flame out and I'm not sure which. Georgetown certainly looks the part of a trustworthy team ready to make the leap, but those flagship performances against Maryland and Clemson are interspersed with two thoroughly mediocre and kind of bad outings against Morgan State and Binghamton. Miami held up quite well against Florida for some time, but that's the only decent team they've played.
UNDERDOGS: Dayton (9.4%). I admired Dayton's endless attempts to lose the Marquette game, but no matter how hard they tried to blow it, they couldn't finish it off. As such, they're now 1-1 in real games, both of which have seen them produce nearly zero offensive rebounds and struggle to shoot the ball. Concerning for an offense I usually like watching in a general sense.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: EASILY BYU/Georgetown. No disrespect to the other two teams here, but BYU is BYU and Georgetown may have an ability to play up/down to its competition. We'll see how real both of those statements are, I hope.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: BYU over Dayton. Georgetown whoops Miami by 20 in the consolation game to give themselves something nice to look back on.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Second Helping. Again, I would argue this is one interesting team short of a full pie. Dayton did beat Marquette, but I'm pretty uncertain how that win's going to age, and every other performance of theirs has been uninspiring.
Resorts World Las Vegas Classic
Championship game: Saturday, November 29 at 4:30 PM ET, Flo Sports
FAVORITE: UC Santa Barbara (46.5%). Unfortunately, a good sign of how interesting/not this tournament is would be for a UCSB team with some of the best talent possible in mid-major basketball to have already lost a home game to a Loyola Marymount group that looks much more cohesive. Aidan Mahaney has found his shot again and is just as terrible as ever defensively, while Hosana Kitenge looks downright horrible. Medically inadvisable what Joe Pasternack has cooked so far, and I hope they get it right, because this should be far better.
DARKHORSE: Seattle (36.4%). Chris Victor is the master of the low shot volume defense, which makes me happy. His teams suppress shot volume exceptionally without the ball in their hands by forcing lots of turnovers and protecting the defensive boards. I would argue this is a must when your offense is as bad as Seattle's typically is, though this year's group is shooting the ball quite well.
UNDERDOGS: Texas State (12.3%) and Lehigh (4.8%). I have no thoughts on either of these two teams. Actually, I have one on Texas State: Terrence Johnson looks to have created a good interior defense through some combination of Robert Fields and Tay Knox, assuming they can stay on the court without fouling...possibly too tall an ask. Lehigh is awful on the boards, which is not great when you're playing UCSB and would most likely play Texas State in a consolation game.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: None of them are that fun. Seattle/UCSB is most appealing.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Seattle over UCSB by 2. Texas State wins the consolation game.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Leftovers. This emerges from our lowest category simply because I think UCSB and Seattle are interesting.
Emerald Coast Classic
Championship game: Saturday, November 29 at 7 PM ET, CBSSN
FAVORITE: LSU (49.2%). Jesus, what an awful sell of this tournament if this is the best team available. LSU is technically 4-0 but has played one of the worst schedules in the sport, and an early 40% start from 3 through two games is starting to show itself as a mirage. No, I'm not buying it.
DARKHORSES: DePaul (23.6%) and Georgia Tech (20.5%). I don't know that I buy this, either. DePaul is the most entertaining DePaul team I have personally seen in several years and pretty easily the most competent they've been since Tony Stubblefield's first year (15-16, 6-14 BE) if not before that. Georgia Tech, with all preseason priors removed, has the nation's fourth-best defense...and its 346th-best offense. Is that enough to tell you how dreadful of a watch they are?
UNDERDOGS: Drake (6.7%). I was ready to write Drake off entirely this year, and this is probably still a gap year for Eric Henderson in his debut season. Then they went on the road and controlled a game against Charleston from start to finish. Now, Charleston is missing a pair of players, but...still! That's a really good result. There may yet be life here, though the offensive personnel is shockingly weak for a Drake team in the 2020s.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: None? This is a really unappealing group of teams, and boy is it dark when DePaul is the brightest light in the room. I guess DePaul/LSU? DePaul/Drake? Who cares?
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Serotonin boost! DePaul over LSU by 4.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Food Poisoning. I don't want to watch this, I don't want to know that it exists, I don't want it around. I want it to be left in the wilderness. I don't need it. Unless DePaul wins, then it's acceptable.
