There's something in the air, looming. You can feel it building. Families start to lock doors earlier...chiefs of police are holding press conferences...Reddit is going wild with conspiracy theories. That's right: it's Feast Week.
(hand to earpiece) Sorry, I'm being told Feast Week is next week. This is technically pre-Feast Week. Let's fix that logo really quickly:
Much better.
At previous places, such as an old newsletter, I have done a full-on primer of all preseason tournaments, bracketed events, and other ephemera surrounding the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. This year will not be quite the same, in that this is part one of two and the other part will be up next Monday (November 24). Still, here at Basket Under Review, you will get a preview of all 21 preseason tournaments taking place over the next two weeks, from the Bahamas Championship to the Emerald Coast Classic.
For the tournaments listed, both here (12 of them) and in the next installment (the remaining nine), we’ll break the field into the following:
- FAVORITES: Teams who enter with a 25% chance or better to win their tournament.
- DARKHORSES: Teams somewhere in the 10-25% range.
- UNDERDOGS: Everyone from 5-10%.
For tournaments with four teams, those ranges become 40%, 15-40%, and <15%.
Your categories for watchability are as follows.
- FIRST PLATE: The best of the best, and precisely what you want in your life this coming week-plus. (Example: Maui.)
- SECOND HELPING: The best of the rest. These don’t take priority, but perhaps there’s something here that’s missing in the first group and is worth one’s time. (Example: Charleston Classic.)
- LEFTOVERS: This is where you really gotta like something to get into it, because you’re already stuffed with the top two groups. And you’ve probably got to be creative in how you consume these. (Example: Paradise Jam.)
- FOOD POISONING: Unless you are really, truly desperate, I would not consume any of these, as they are medically inadvisable. (Example: Pensacola Invitational.)
All odds listed are via Bart Torvik's website, so take it up with him. All REQUIRED PREDICTIONS BY JOURNALISTIC LAW are randomly assigned. Here is how I do it:
- Go to RANDOM.org;
- See what number comes up between 1 and 100;
- Match that to the odds on the chart.
These predictions may or may not be what I actually believe will happen, but honestly, it’s easier than investing a lot of brain power into 10% of a team’s season.
Onward!
Bahamas Championship
Championship game: Friday, November 21 at 9:30 PM ET, CBSSN
FAVORITE: Purdue (54.4%).
DARKHORSE: Texas Tech (33.7%). There's an 88% chance one of these two teams wins this mini-tournament. Nothing shocking, as these are pretty clearly the two best teams in the field, and Purdue has looked the part (mostly) of the best offense in college basketball early on. Texas Tech has been injured but has done well for itself, and both JT Toppin and Christian Anderson look like All-Americans of a sort to me. Hopefully we get this title game!
UNDERDOGS: Wake Forest (6.7%) and Memphis (5.2%). If not, one of these two annoyances spoiled the party. Okay, they're not annoying at all, but both have a tendency to play up or down to the competition. Memphis's is well-known - Penny is a hilarious 22-11 ATS as an underdog the last four years - but you may not know that Steve Forbes and Wake have 12 wins over top-50 teams in the last four seasons. It's a stretch! But this is the time to stretch.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Pretty obvious. Purdue/Texas Tech would be a great back-and-forth battle that would expose each team's defensive inefficiencies but also emphasize what makes each team so good on the offensive end. Of course I would like to see this. There isn't an acceptable alternate option here, but Texas Tech/Memphis would be charmingly chaotic.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Purdue over Texas Tech.
WATCHABILITY RATING: First Plate, which might be controversial, but hear me out. Both of the openers have two underdogs that play to the level of whatever opponent happens to be on the schedule. This should mean three great games plus a consolation game that would be fine.
Hall of Fame Classic
Championship game: Friday, November 21 at 9:30 PM ET, Peacock
FAVORITE: Nebraska (40.9%). Nebraska has elected to start 2025-26 by shooting the life out of the ball, posting 61% 2PT/38% 3PT hit rates through four games. This is usually where I come in and do the "here's why this won't last" thing, but the average Husker lineup at EvanMiya projects to shoot 35.5% the rest of the way, and they're 92nd-percentile in avoiding low-quality shots at Synergy. The jumpers are running ahead of schedule but it's reasonable that this might be a top-25 offense.
DARKHORSE: Mississippi State (33.5%). A -7.7 turnover margin per 100 is concerning, though most of that was just the Iowa State game. I'm more concerned that this operation may only be Josh Hubbard. Hubbard has been his usual electric self thus far, but none of State's next six in minutes played are able to combine a 110+ ORating with 15%+ Usage%. The first guy to do so is King Grace, a freshman garnering 13 minutes a night.
UNDERDOGS: Kansas State (15%) and New Mexico (10.6%). Kansas State's opponent-adjusted TO% offensively is 350th nationally, which is a really bad sign when paired with hitting 46% of their threes thus far. Once that goes away, what do they have? I guess PJ Haggerty does turn everything into Memphis. Meanwhile, New Mexico is...thoroughly alert and competent defensively. They are also somehow better than Xavier?
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Weirdly, I think the actual best game here might be a semifinal (MSU/KSU). But if forced to pick, Nebraska/Mississippi State is tops of the few options available. That's a good game.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Nebraska over Kansas State.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Second Helping. You're under no delusion that this is amazing basketball, but each team has at least one very watchable player and is flawed in an entertaining way. Even New Mexico, whose offense is thoroughly incomplete, has a freshman (Tomislav Buljan) averaging 12 & 11 in 25 minutes a game.
Boardwalk Battle
Championship game: Saturday, November 22 at 7:30 PM ET, Baller TV
FAVORITE: High Point (54.5%). The Undefeated High Point hopes are over, but they're still the best team here by a good margin. I'd actually say it's a good sign that they lost the UAB game and are still a top-60 group with preseason priors removed.
DARKHORSE: Incarnate Word (23.5%) and Illinois Chicago (17.7%). These are two highly-competent groups, but UIC has the misfortune of drawing High Point. That's why UIW has the better shot at stealing the Boardwalk Battle despite being the third-best team in the field.
UNDERDOGS: Southern Indiana (4.3%). Well, they prevent threes very well. This is because they are addicted to fouling at first convenience, but baby steps are necessary when you're 362nd in eFG%.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: High Point/Incarnate Word is the only one that feels useful to some extent.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: High Point over Incarnate Word. Nothing shocking.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Leftovers. I mean, three of these teams have fun offenses and Tahj Staveskie for UIW is an incredible viewing experience right now. I've seen worse. It's on Baller TV, though.
Charleston Classic (Palmetto Bracket)
Championship game: Sunday, November 23 at 1 PM ET, ESPN
FAVORITE: Georgia (45.9%). I'm on record as simply not believing this Georgia team is top-40 good, but a very clear Wrong About Player bit for me is Blue Cain, who appears to be taking off for the stratosphere. 76% 2PT/32% 3PT/94% FT is quite the start, even against Georgia's slop schedule. We'll learn here how real or not his leap attempt may be.
DARKHORSE: Clemson (25.2%) and West Virginia (23.2%). Remove preseason priors and you have a top-20 team (Clemson) and a top-10 defense (WVU). I don't know how real those things are, but there is a real argument to be made for this being a secretly very strong MTE. I'm more of a believer in Good Clemson than Good West Virginia right now, though that may just be due to having seen Clemson do this exact thing before.
UNDERDOGS: Xavier (5.7%). Boy, this is a dire situation. Xavier is 111th on KenPom at time of writing. I think they might touch 140th or so before leveling out. For a Big East comparison, that would make them worse than 2024-25 DePaul...who went 4-16 in conference play.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: I would be fine with basically anything here that doesn't involve Xavier, but Clemson/Georgia would likely be the best 40-minute game. I think of that as a functional toss-up.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: West Virginia over Georgia. Now that would be somethin'!
WATCHABILITY RATING: Second Helping. I wish there was a fourth good team here, but I'm not really going to blame the organizers or even Xavier for that. There are also no great teams, but you basically have a ~80% shot at a good title game.
Pensacola Invitational
Championship game: Sunday, November 23 at 6 PM ET, TV TBA
FAVORITE: Southern Miss (41.3%). To Jay Ladner's credit, this doesn't appear to be that bad. The Buffalo loss looked awful when it happened but Buffalo seems better than anticipated. Taking South Carolina to overtime is objectively a good result. No issue with losing to Grambling, either. What this probably means is a team that goes 7-11 in the Sun Belt but still should win this tournament.
DARKHORSE: Tennessee Martin (29.3%) and Prairie View A&M (17.6%). Limited commentary for me. I can't figure out quite why KenPom is so much higher on UTM/so much lower on PVAMU than Torvik, which has the two roughly equal. I would give Martin an artificial bump here while still slightly favoring USM.
UNDERDOGS: North Florida (11.8%). I think there's a real chance that North Florida ranking this year starts with 36 at some point. Whether that's 360, 361, or 365 is up to them.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: The least-bad title game is UT Martin/Southern Miss.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Prairie View A&M over North Florida. Hey, it would be pretty funny.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Food Poisoning. For one, I could not figure out despite several attempts if this is even televised. For another, I would prefer to not learn if it is or isn't.
Charleston Classic (Lowcountry Bracket)
Championship game: Sunday, November 23 at 9 PM ET, ESPN2
FAVORITE: Utah State (55.5%). What do you even say about the Aggies at this point? I'm convinced you could put nine geriatric Senators on the Utah State roster and they would somehow manage to win 20 games. This USU group isn't even shooting well yet - 25% 3PT, 69% FT - and still looks the part of a top-40 unit.
DARKHORSE: Boston College (22.1%) and Davidson (13.4%). Boston College has awful vibes, but did manage to beat Temple on the road over the weekend. I suppose there's that. Davidson, with all preseason priors removed, has been a top-three Atlantic 10 team and looks much improved. Won't shoot 47% from three forever and is getting smoked on the boards, but even a .500 run in A10 play would be a good step for Matt McKillop.
UNDERDOGS: Tulane (9.1%). Tulane: still 365th of 365 in opponent possession length! This has not resulted in missed shots or good defensive possessions, but dadgummit, they WILL make you take 23 seconds before draining a wide-open three.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: I lean to Davidson/Utah State here. Boston College is a really depressing experience right now, and while Tulane's chaos is endearing it doesn't seem sustainable to actually winning basketball games.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Utah State over Boston College. Nothing that exciting.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Second Helping. It's not bad! Davidson has been genuinely very good so far, as has Utah State. Tulane, again, brings chaos. Just forget BC plays in this?
Paradise Jam
Championship game: Monday, November 24 at 8 PM ET, ESPN+
FAVORITE: Yale (41.2%). I ran these numbers prior to Yale's shock loss to Rhode Island, but I do have an excuse: URI shot 46% from three and 63% on midrange twos. Sometimes you get varianced. What that does is make this tournament kind of a must-win for Yale. If they can win this they'd add something in the realm of +0.3 or +0.4 WAB, which would get them just about back to even. Win out in the non-con, save for a road game at Alabama in December, and you're in good shape.
DARKHORSES: Akron (29%) and Oregon State (14.5%). Akron can actually say the same thing: win this, lose just one more in non-conference play, and you have a surprisingly good case for a 12 seed despite playing in the MAC. Oregon State will have a tougher hill to climb, but they've looked solid so far and could be a scrappy team here.
UNDERDOGS: Charleston (6%). Well, I'm still waiting for the old Chris Mack to emerge.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Kinda obviously Yale/Akron. But here's a shortlist of finals I would accept: Yale/Akron, Charleston/Akron, Yale/Oregon State, Yale/Iona.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Oregon State over Charleston. You simply do not always get what you want. Top four all win their quarters, but the upsets happen in the semifinal.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Leftovers. Hemmed and hawwed on this for a bit, but this just isn't as exciting as I'd hoped. There are at least three teams here I simply do not need to see, which I imagine you can guess the three. Yale, Akron, and maybe Iona are the three teams that draw me in...and two of those play a quarterfinal. Doesn't leave you many great options.
Sunshine Slam (Ocean Bracket)
Championship game: Tuesday, November 25 at 1:30 PM ET, Baller TV
FAVORITES: Pacific (39.4%) and Bethune Cookman (29.7%). Pacific is very nearly 4-0, having lost by one point at Nevada recently, and Bethune Cookman obviously had the fantastic opening night performance against Auburn. Just ignore that they are truly, historically awful on defense.
DARKHORSE: Jacksonville (17.8%) and Stony Brook (13.1%). I have nothing exciting to say about either of these programs, though Stony Brook has looked pretty good offensively thus far in year 37 of Geno Ford's tenure.
UNDERDOGS: n/a
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Possibly a wild take here? But I want Stony Brook/Bethune Cookman. The former has the best offense in the field in terms of on-court play this season; the latter probably had the single most impressive individual performance in taking Auburn to overtime on opening night.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Pacific over Bethune Cookman. No surprises.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Leftovers. This one honestly isn't bad. Three competent offenses, and the fourth (Jacksonville) has shot fairly well so far.
Sunshine Slam (Beach Bracket)
Championship game: Tuesday, November 25 at 7:30 PM ET, CBSSN
FAVORITES: George Mason (38.6%) and Loyola Marymount (32.9%). I want to simulate straight to the title game between these two while understanding we only have a 42% shot of said title game. These are two of the more exciting mid-majors going, and GMU is maybe a top-10 well-coached mid-major with a coach that's going to be a hot commodity come #SearchSZN.
DARKHORSES: Ohio (14.4%) and Florida Atlantic (14.2%). But these teams are fairly solid, too. Ohio's Jackson Paveletzke looks the part of a potential MAC Player of the Year, while FAU has already beaten Boston College and Charleston. I'm not sure either of those teams are even top-150, but hey.
UNDERDOGS: n/a
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Very obviously George Mason/Loyola Marymount. Both of these teams are playing very well right now, and while some amount of schedule concerns could be said for both teams and their undefeated starts, I'm still optimistic that they would provide an excellent basketball game.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Finally a true shocker from the randomizer: FAU takes down Ohio in an all-upsets tournament.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Leftovers. Thought about moving this higher, but I can't say that either semifinal is that exciting. It's the hypothetical GMU/LMU game that would be the fun piece.
ESPN Events Invitational (Adventure Bracket)
Championship game: Wednesday, November 26 at 12 PM ET, ESPN2
FAVORITE: Liberty (45.8%). Jim and I had this discussion on the latest STATS pod, but Liberty seems pre-destined (I'm legitimately unaware if Calvinism is offensive to the school's religious beliefs, so don't hit me) for a 12 seed. You can already see it on Selection Sunday, and you can already hear Seth Davis picking them to beat...uh...Wisconsin. Yeah, Wisconsin sounds right.
Their non-conference basically boils down to three things: this, the road game at NC State, and the road game at Dayton. If they can win two of those outright, they're in Actual Real Position for an at-large. This is the most likely one to go their way.
DARKHORSES: Bradley (15.6%) and Temple (10.9%). Brian Wardle has preached patience with the Braves thus far, as they're clearly a work in progress, but you know who isn't a work in progress? Jaquan freakin' Johnson, who looks EXACTLY as great as I had hoped. Temple is roughly as exciting as a 20-minute nap.
UNDERDOGS: Towson (8.3%), UC San Diego (8.2%), and Rhode Island (6.3%). Three also-ran types that are good teams but probably don't have enough juice to win this tournament outright. A good outcome for any of them would be to make the final. Of the three, UCSD has played the best basketball thus far.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: Liberty/UC San Diego. Let me share my rationale. Naturally, I should take Bradley...but Brian Wardle himself admitted Bradley needs more time to gel into a good team. Towson is good but doesn't add a ton for watchability. Temple: no thanks. Rhode Island: same. The best version of this tournament has Liberty in the final no matter what, but UCSD is the best of its potential foes.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: Liberty over Bradley. A good showing for the Braves, which they really need.
WATCHABILITY RATING: Second Helping. This is functionally a mid-major all-star tournament, with future 12 seed Liberty, future 13 seed Bradley, future 15 seed Vermont, and future CAA regular season champion Towson. It's very good!
Maui Invitational
Championship game: Wednesday, November 26 at 2:30 PM ET, ESPN
FAVORITES: Texas (28.9%), USC (27.3%), and NC State (24.3%). For all the hate this Maui field has gotten, what it'll produce is a wide-open tournament where three good-but-flawed P5s combine for an 80% chance to take home the title. I think that's still a fun collection to work with, and each has their own strengths/weaknesses that could swing the tournament their way.
Texas has looked the part of a First Four team since Opening Night: very good on the boards, gets to the line a lot, and absolutely, positively cannot shoot a basketball. USC looks the part of an elite defense and an offense that more resembles last year's Texas A&M than anything you're thrilled about. NC State nearly lost at home to VCU and has looked very porous defensively, yet has all the parts to put out a top-10 offense at year's end.
Any of them could win, and any of them could go a surprising 1-2 in Maui. I'm not sure what is most likely for anyone involved here, but it'll make for a fascinating start-to-finish experience.
DARKHORSES: n/a
UNDERDOGS: Boise State (8.9%) and Arizona State (7.7%). These are your two best bets to take a surprise title home. Boise has recovered exceptionally well from their opening night disaster against Hawaii Pacific, with a 4-0 record and a level of play that implies a top-60ish team. They aren't great at any one thing but above-average-to-good at a lot of them, which gives them a fairly high floor on the average night.
Arizona State is coached by Bobby Hurley, and I highly encourage you to re-read the first seven words of this sentence before taking them seriously.
THE BEST POSSIBLE TITLE GAME IS: NC State/Texas. Actually, the best game here is the potential NCSU/USC semifinal. I would accept pretty much any combination of NCSU/USC/Texas/Boise in the final.
REQUIRED PREDICTION BY JOURNALISTIC LAW: A weird one: NC State over Arizona State by two touchdowns. Also, Seton Hall defeats Chaminade for 7th place.
WATCHABILITY RATING: First Plate. Sue me. It's Maui. How am I supposed to turn this down? There's still three Tournament-level teams here and two additional fine ones. It's not that bad!
Part two, including Players Era and much more, will be out on the morning of Monday, November 24.
