Part One: The 2022 Cycle, Time to Reflect
On a busy July afternoon at Minnesota’s renowned MSP Airport, it hit me. Here I was, restless, battling a sudden lengthy layover. An unexpected reflection occurred as my mind wandered into the depths of the D1 college hoops scene: the critical third year as a College Basketball coach.
Perhaps it was the bacon and egg sandwich of Stone Arch Brewing, which is a must MSP try if you haven't, that allowed me to think about the bacon sizzle wearing off for Jerome Tang at Kansas State, or the roster baking it took to get Mike White a tournament-level roster at Georgia, or conceivable that a simple helping of egg-based protein serves as a fresh reminder of the inspiring and energetic John Griffin III up at Bucknell?
Welcome to The Landscape. A new feature series here at Basket Under Review. Heck, everything here is new, right?
The Landscape will take you on a journey through all levels of College Basketball to call out where dots connect, where patterns emerge, and what to anticipate as we go forward in a college sports world with unprecedented changes.
Thinking about the ultimate triumphs that Todd Golden achieved in 2025 and the slow decline of Villanova under Kyle Neptune evolved into a deeper need for more understanding. A required evaluation on the proverbial crossroads summer for this group. The attention typically lends considerable time each season to coaching rumors, carousel, and invests time in new head coaches as it should. However, the third year at a job has become a make-or-break crossroads for many lately.
How pivotal of a year is it? What does the data say? How do revenue sharing, NIL, and transfer portal realities impact modern head coaching tenure? What should fans and alumni expect when a coach is hired in this era? It’s a subject that seems to be discussed seldom in total. Time to identify some trends in the business and what to expect for the remaining 2023 cycle coaching hires.
The above list is clear-cut. These are the successful hires. Xavier became the school that had to make another hire, but in many previous eras of college hoops, you could envision Mississippi State needing a new coach as well.
The rest of the list falls into a variety of buckets, a summary:
This high-level information suggests that arguably five fan bases out of 12 (41.7%) are satisfied or “happy” with their 2022 coaching hires, with one (Villanova) dealt with utter despair about the past three seasons. For Neptune himself, he had three years left on his contract and is owed $13.2 million in remaining salary. Kenny Payne received a 7.25M buyout for arguably the worst two seasons in modern Louisville history. The other 11 head coaches remain today in Power head coaching jobs; only Willard and Miller have moved. From Golden’s National Championship to Neptune’s buyout money, these fellas have all won at the game of coaching in College Basketball. The power school head coach is truly the holy grail and life-changing perch of the industry.
Now, a glance at the rest of the 2022 Cycle:
Three years later, only Daniyal Robinson and Corey Gipson managed to climb up quickly within the non-power school hierarchy.
A 13-coach list led by Dan Earl and Chris Gerlufsen has excelled to varying degrees relative to program expectations and positioned itself well to take a natural next step up in the coaching ranks. However, the larger majority are fighting to create substantial program growth. The 12 coaches (listed below, beginning with Steve Lavin) who need to increase their average win percentages and totals are accompanied by 11 more (listed below, starting with Ryan Pedon) who have stretched the status quo into the coming season, starting this November. Lastly, we know that 14 head coaches thus far, stemming from the 2022 hiring cycle, have moved on in life or opted to parachute.
Of the 60 full-time hires in the 2022 cycle:
Nearly half of these hard-working coaches are perceived to be in limbo after three full years.
One thing is clear, the ability to right the ship at the top of College Basketball exists each year. See White and Gates. In the middle to lower-end of the sport, it was brutally difficult for the majority. Dan Earl won the SoCon regular season and NIT at Chattanooga. Chris Crutchfield led Omaha to a surprising double Summit League title.
The other three Chris's have had positive growth and reason for excitement this coming season - Chris Gerlufsen (USF Dons), Chris Caputo (GW), and Chris Markwood (Maine).
The reality is that earning at-large bids is nearly impossible now for anyone outside of the Mid-Major+ (American/A10/MW/WCC) leagues. Even within them, the odds a slim. Markwood still has to solve the postseason Vermont obstacle to get the America East title at some point.
The greater struggle plays a critical role when it comes to key facets of the program. Player commitments, scheduling up or scheduling down, the ability to gain NIL contributions, sell tickets, etc. Perception is the reality nearly overnight once two or three seasons are in the books. This is the moment the new offseason commences and the reality is what these coaches are faced with.
Much like reality once again setting in on me. It's time to board the plane and say goodbye to MSP Airport for now. My layover was filling.
Soon, Part II: The 2023 Hiring Cycle. Highlighting and forecasting the state of each program that made a change in 2023, applying our 2022 case study findings, staff updates, and roster overhauls. See you soon.
