The absence of JuJu Watkins this season is not only significant for USC, it's also massive for the national college landscape.
For the second straight season, the reigning National Player of the Year will not be playing for a chance at a repeat. The prior three winners all came back for at least one more year, but only one of those players — Caitlin Clark — was able to earn the honor twice.
A healthy Watkins would very likely be the odds-on favorite to earn Player of the Year once again. So without her in the picture, who are the prime candidates to earn their first top accolade?
Let's look back before looking forward. Here are the last six Player of the Year winners, with some general stats alongside:
The past six seasons, the AP Player of the Year, Wooden Award and Naismith Player of the Year have all been in agreement. In 2019, Sabrina Ionescu won the AP and Wooden awards, but lost the Naismith to Iowa's Megan Gustafson. With that in mind, I'm considering "National Player of the Year" as any of these honors since they are on a recent trend of agreeing anyway.
If there's a common through-line with all six of these winning résumés, it is, in fact, winning. Each of thee players led their teams to significant overall success, with 5 of the 6 honorees' teams winning more than 87 percent of their games. The only outlier — Clark's Iowa team in 2023 — made the national title game.
From there, the individual's stats have varied, though each of these players managed to fill the stat sheets across the board. Both of Clark's wins, along with Paige Bueckers and Sabrina Ionescu's, are from do-it-all guards who also happened to be extremely efficient from everywhere on the court. JuJu Watkins and Aliyah Boston also put up big numbers, but both also shine on defensive prowess with more than one steal and block per contest.
The Watkins and Boston wins are the ones that feel the most important to look at. The other four listed all feel like "obvious" picks to me, as in yeah, if any players in 2025-26 can put up similar numbers on a highly ranked team that wins a similar level of games, they're probably going to win the award. But Boston won despite lower scoring, and Watkins won despite slightly lower efficiency and win share totals compared to her peers.
Boston's win was, to me, a reward for being the best player on the best team in the country. South Carolina was a force that season, and Boston was able to put up tremendous numbers despite a system that generally spreads out production. She was also the Defensive Player of the Year in college basketball and is the only forward to win a National Player of the Year honor in the past six seasons.
Watkins was not Defensive Player of the Year, but she made a massive impact for a 1-seed USC team, and was clearly the primary option in that offense. She also had some big-time performances against rival UCLA and, to me, passed the eye test as the most talented player in the country. I say that because Watkins was not the top player in the country last year in win shares, finishing eighth. The previous five winners were ranked first, first, first, third (Maddy Siegrist and Angel Reese above Clark) and first.
Watkins and Clark were not, statistically, the top players in 2023 and 2025, but I would have a hard time arguing anybody was more valuable in either of those seasons, which may be what gave them an edge in all three national awards.
With all that in mind, let's look at some of the top preseason candidates, along with some names I think could contend
Note: Betting odds listed are from ESPN for the Wooden Award, and are meant to show the general national view of the award favorites. None of this is betting advice.
Early Favorites
- Lauren Betts, UCLA (+200)
2024-25 Stats: 20.2 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 2.7 APG, 2.9 BPG, 64.8 FG%
Betts is the odds-on favorite to start the season after an excellent junior season that got the Bruins into the Final Four. Her excellent, efficient production offensively matched with her punishing, Defensive Player of the Year capabilities, makes her a prime candidate if she can take another step and UCLA can remain as strong as it did in 24-25.
Betts' NPOY case would be most similar to Boston's because of her defensive prowess and similar statistical output, and I also think Betts' biggest hurdle to overcome will be similar. UCLA is likely to be very good once again, but with transfer add Gianna Kneepkens, five-star freshman Sienna Betts — Lauren's sister — and many key starters also returning, I wonder if Lauren Betts' production may take a circumstantial hit.
- Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame (+450)
2024-25 Stats: 23.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.6 APG, 3.7 SPG, 46.3/40.0/85.6 splits
Hidalgo's first two collegiate seasons have been unbelievable. Her 279 total steals thus far is jarring to even write, and she's matched it with a tremendous scoring ability that included a much-improved three-point shot last season.
Statistically, Hidalgo might be the best candidate. She puts up huge offensive numbers to go with her defensive abilities, and does it all efficiently. The big question may be on if her team will remain elite enough for it to matter. Notre Dame has won 27+ games for three straight seasons, but lost stars Sonia Citron (WNBA Draft) and Olivia Miles (transfer to TCU).
- Ta'Niya Latson, South Carolina (+450)
2024-25 Stats (Florida State): 25.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.6 APG, 2.2 SPG
Latson was the nation's top scorer last season and is headed to the Dawn Staley win factory, so I absolutely understand why she's listed so highly here.
I think Latson is going to be a terrific piece of what is bound to be a 30-plus-win South Carolina team, but I also expect her volume and numbers to take a hit in the process as she joins one of the most talented rosters in the country. Her numbers could go down and still be considered, but South Carolina would have to truly dominate, and Latson would have to be the clear No. 1 as Boston was to make that happen.
- Madison Booker, Texas (+600)
2024-25 Stats: 16.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.6 SPG
Booker has been tremendous for Texas over the past two seasons, and the Longhorns have certainly remained strong enough as a team to warrant consideration for their best player.
Texas' style of play would be Booker's largest deterrent in getting here. The Longhorns slow the pace and never, EVER shoot threes (last place in Division I in three-point rate). Booker's numbers also stayed pretty stagnant over her first two seasons, including a dramatic dip to her assists (5.0 -> 2.7 APG) as a sophomore. If her numbers spike and Texas is a 1 seed again, she will be in this conversation. But Vic Schaefer has done a lot of winning at Texas with his style of play, so I don't anticipate much rocking the boat.
- Flau'Jae Johnson, LSU (+900)
2024-25 Stats: 18.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.7 SPG, 0.9 BPG
Johnson's 24-25 season may have gone a tad under the radar as LSU ever so slightly dipped into a 31-6 record, and were equally led by the talents of Aneesah Morrow and Mikayla Williams, who each added at least 17+ PPG apiece.
Williams returns, but Morrow is off to the WNBA which could give Johnson an opportunity to truly shine. That said, LSU made a huge transfer signing in MiLaysia Fulwiley to create a truly astounding amount of talent in their backcourt. It should make LSU a total blast to watch, but could also hurt Johnson's national award aspirations.
Dark Horses
- Sarah Strong, UConn (+1000)
- Azzi Fudd, UConn (+1200)
I was stunned to see Strong listed outside of the top five, but I assume it's due in part to her loaded team, including Fudd who is similarly placed. Both of these players are talented enough to be in the running and Fudd should score a whole lot, but Strong, to me, had an argument for the best player in college basketball last season as a true freshman.
Strong is good at everything. She led the nation in win shares AS A TRUE FRESHMAN and no longer has Bueckers on her team which could make her the focal point of the offense. Her general unselfishness and UConn's talent will be deterrents, but Strong should certainly be a top candidate if she makes even the smallest level of improvement from what was an unbelievable first season.
- Olivia Miles, TCU (+1300)
- MiLaysia Fulwiley, LSU (+4000)
Familiar faces in new places are always hard to predict, but both Miles and Fulwiley are so supremely talented that they deserved to be listed here. Fulwiley is less likely to reach this mountain top because of all the reasons said for Flau'Jae Johnson, but we've also never seen Fulwiley in a starring role so I'm curious how much untapped ceiling we will see from her immediately.
I think Miles could be a major contender if TCU can get anywhere near their heights last season. The Horned Frogs are without key stars from last season, and Miles has already shown a bit of a do-it-all skillset for Notre Dame. If she finds a big scoring boost for a team that needs it, she has the triple double threat to get some big-time recognition.
- Toby Fournier, Duke (+4000)
- Mikayla Blakes, Vanderbilt (not listed)
- Audi Crooks, Iowa State (not listed)
These are three more outlandish names I am keeping an eye on, as each could fit the mold of a recent previous winner if the cards fall correctly.
Starting with Fournier, who was listed among potential nominees. She had 13.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 1.1 BPG, in her first season with the Blue Devils. Those numbers will have to make a dramatic leap, but they are likely to do so if Duke starts Fournier this season — she came off the bench for all 35 appearances and played just over 20 minutes per contest. Listing her here is signaling for a huge rise, but Duke is a consistently great team, and her two-way ability and untapped potential make her an intriguing name to watch.
I couldn't believe Mikayla Blakes wasn't at least listed as a name to watch after averaging 23.3 PPG and 2.4 SPG as a freshman. Her statistical output is already there for Player of the Year potential, but it may be up to how much winning Vanderbilt can do: The Commodores finished last season at 22-11. It's a brutal SEC slate, but Blakes was a lightning bolt to this team and is back for another year to do it again.
Crooks is a similar story to Blakes: Her numbers are mostly already there, Iowa State just has to start winning more. Crooks averaged 23.4 PPG and 7.5 RPG on 60.5% shooting. She was a much better scorer in year two, but Iowa State was only marginally better, going from 21-12 to 23-12. If Crooks can keep upping her stats and the Cyclones can get closer to 25 or 27 wins, the junior forward is the type of unique, unstoppable presence that should get appreciation from voters.
