Every college basketball season has its stars, the guys whose names pop up on preseason watch lists and whose faces dominate March highlight reels. But if you really want to figure out which teams overachieve, you have to look past the obvious. Championships and deep runs aren’t just decided by All-Americans — they’re decided by the “swing players.”

A swing player isn’t always the leading scorer or the most talented pro prospect. They’re the player whose impact tilts a team’s entire season one way or another. Hoping that a big man can supply enough rim protection for a whole team? That’s a swing player. Need a transfer to shoot well from three-point range because he’s the only one that can provide spacing? That’s a swing player. They’re the players who, if they hit, make their team look like a contender. If they don’t, everyone else is left scrambling to cover the gap.

Think of Alijah Martin on last season’s Florida team. Walter Clayton Jr. was the star on the perimeter and the frontcourt was the best in the country, but Martin’s ability to slide up or down the lineup, defend multiple positions and provide secondary scoring made everything work. Lance Jones was the swing player for Purdue’s 2024 team that reached the title game, as his needed perimeter defense and secondary ball-handling was a major factor in the Boilermakers going from a first-round exit to playing on the final night of the season.

In short: stars set the ceiling, but swing players decide whether a team can actually reach it.

Ian Jackson was (and may still be) the major swing piece for St. John’s given Rick Pitino’s stated intention of having the former five-star prospect transition to point guard. If that works, St. John’s roster has all the other pieces of a Final Four contender. If the experiment goes south, the Red Storm will be forced to navigate the season without a point guard on the roster. Based on early returns and practice reports, Pitino has already scrapped the idea of Jackson being his team’s point guard, which has significantly damped expectations around the program.

"There are no point guards anymore,” Pitino said a few weeks ago. “If you find it, you're probably describing a guy who can't shoot.”

Who are some other players that will have that same “swing” impact for their respective teams? Here are five I’m watching:

Elliot Cadeau, Michigan

Cadeau’s tenure at North Carolina is a polarizing one among fans, but he entered the portal this offseason facing major questions about his ability to truly be one of the nation’s best point guards. 

He’s a table-setter by nature — a pace manager who wants to draw two, throw early, and keep the ball hopping — and UNC increasingly needed more shot creation from its guards, especially alongside a high-usage scorer like RJ Davis. Cadeau improved as a sophomore (9.4 points, 6.2 assists on 44.5% from the field), but the frictions were obvious: the turnovers ticked up (3.1 per game), and a chunk of the fanbase fixated on them. The staff never stopped valuing his passing, but there were plenty of occasions where it didn’t offset his shortcomings as a shooter and inconsistent defensive effort. 

The best version of Cadeau at UNC still looked like a point guard you build around. He led the ACC in assists, piloted high-leverage minutes, and in March handed out 12 dimes in the First Four — tied for second-most by a Tar Heel in an NCAA Tournament game since assists became official. That’s not empty March fluff; it’s proof he can organize good offenses when the stage is bright. 

Dusty May’s offense is the right ecosystem for what Cadeau already is. May wants pace without panic, reads and movement over iso-ball, and bigs who are consistently cutting towards the rim. Cadeau expressed excitement about his fit in May’s system after committing: “Big men like to play with me because I get them the ball a lot.” On a roster with Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., and Aday Mara, a big part of Cadeau’s job description will be getting that trio the ball in the right spots.

The fit also explains the transfer timing. Michigan targeted him aggressively (May met with him right after the season), believing he can operate May’s offense at an elite level. May has even admitted there’s “concern” if Cadeau has to miss time, which tells you two things: 1) the staff believes his strengths scale this roster, and 2) true lead-guard depth behind him isn’t just a matter of plugging in another ballhandler. It’s a compliment and a responsibility wrapped in one. 

If you watched the UNC tape, the pluses and minuses are easy to translate. The pluses: cadence, vision, an instinct to throw on time — especially to rollers and short-rollers — and an ability to move the defense with his eyes before the pass ever leaves his hand. The minuses: some of those sloppy live-ball turnovers and opponents not seeing him as a scoring threat on the perimeter. Part of the issue with the Tar Heels last season was trying to attack defenses that looked like this, with Cadeau’s defender consistently clogging the paint:

What swings the season is how cleanly he lives in those margins. If the shot comes out on the catch without overthinking, even if it’s not at a high percentage, defenses will have to respect it and Michigan’s offense will have better spacing. That means more dunks for Johnson, more easy slips and elbow touches for Lendeborg, more clean pops and dunker-spot finds for Mara. That’s the whole design: put the ball in the right place, on time, to the right people — and keep moving.

Michigan’s frontcourt needs a concierge, and Cadeau takes pride in being one. He’s also the only one on the roster that can truly be that. LJ Cason is a combo guard wired to score, as is incoming freshman Trey McKenney. If Cadeau struggles, one of those two will have a heavier playmaking, taking them away from the scoring roles Michigan needs them in.

Yaxel Lendeborg may be Michigan’s star, but the Wolverines’ season hinges just as much on May’s bet that Cadeau can elevate this offense.

Coen Carr, Michigan State

At Michigan State, Tom Izzo’s system and trust in his player development has consistently led to blind faith in the program’s success being rewarded. But this roster, after losing Jase Richardson’s breakout scoring, arrives at a crossroads: they have size and a very high defensive floor, but there isn’t anyone you trust to carry the offense. There are no go-to players - it’s a roster full of supplemental scoring pieces, yet there’s no obvious candidate for them to supplement. 

That’s why one player matters more than others. Coen Carr is perhaps the most explosive athlete on the floor, but this year, he needs to be more: a perimeter threat who forces switches, widens gaps, and gives MSU a rhythm weapon in chaos.

Carr’s sophomore numbers weren’t gaudy—8.1 points, 3.6 rebounds in about 21 minutes per game—but there were flashes of more. Michigan State fans remember when he erupted for 17 points and eight boards against Florida Atlantic and led scoring again against Minnesota with 12. 

Carr’s limited shooting ability (he only attempted 15 three-pointers last season, making five, after not shooting from beyond the arc as a freshman) has created some of his offensive inconsistency and kept Izzo from making him a more focal part of the offense.

Here’s the swing: the Spartans may not have a choice this season. 

Michigan State doesn’t need Carr to be a three-level star, they just need him to be credible enough as a shooter that defenders can’t always cheat to the paint. He’s lethal in transition, a one-man fast break who is unstoppable when he gets downhill. But in the halfcourt, savvy spacing is currency, and Michigan State traditionally plays at a fairly methodical pace. No one will mistake it for Tony Bennett’s Virginia, but no one’s mistaking Tom Izzo’s offense for Nate Oats’.

Think back to when Jase Richardson became “the guy” last year. He started slow, but once he truly emerged as a primary scoring option and earned Izzo’s trust, the offense flowed. His scoring lifted everyone. This roster needs someone to step into that role, and Carr has shown the most ability to do so.

One moment that captured Carr’s promise came during the win over Ole Miss in the NCAA Tournament, where he delivered 15 points on 6/10 shooting and made 1/2 three-pointers. It was the kind of game where he flashes both motor and shooting touch, forcing you to think of what is possible if the jumper becomes a little more consistent. That has been the focus of Carr’s offseason.

If Carr doesn’t come through, Michigan State will need someone else to step up. If that’s Jeremiah Fears, it likely impacts his ability to be a playmaker (and, after shooting 39.7 percent from the field last season, MSU’s offense would likely be incredibly inefficient). Asking a freshman like Cam Ward or Jordan Scott to come in and carry a team offensively would be a big ask and is something Izzo traditionally strays away from – even if Richardson was the exception last season. And who knows how much of Samford transfer Trey Fort’s impact will translate from the SoCon to the Big Ten.

So yes, Coen Carr matters a lot. His athletic gifts are the baseline for immense potential that only his shooting will unlock. If he is able to meet the moment and be a go-to scorer, Michigan State’s system and this roster will work well. If he plays safe or shrinks, the Spartans may have one of the Big Ten’s worst offenses. That’s the swing.

TK Simpkins, Oregon

Staying in the Big Ten, I wanted to look at an up-transfer with sneaky impact potential in Simpkins, who will suit up for the Ducks following a successful stint with Elon.

The 6-foot-4, 185-pounder led the Phoenix in scoring (16.4 ppg) while shooting 36.7% from three on 5.9 attempts and 42.3% from the field across nearly 30 minutes a night. He wasn’t nibbling at spot-ups; he was a volume wing who lived on catch-and-shoot rhythm and the occasional pull-up when teams chased over the top. He had heater nights, too, most notably 32 points with an 8-of-10 clip from deep at UNCW, plus a 28-point burst against Towson.

The fit at Oregon is fairly straightforward, especially alongside Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle. Shelstad should be one of the better guards in the country again and Bittle has an elite inside-out game. Simpkins’ job is to relieve pressure with his shooting and be the perimeter shooting threat on the wing. That’s where his role at Oregon is actually simpler than the one he left—he won’t be asked to manufacture as much off the dribble. He’ll be asked to finish possessions: space, catch, let it fly. 

His own words make the plan feel even cleaner. Asked why he picked Oregon, Simpkins pointed to Altman’s guard track record and the way the offense runs. 

“Just being able to learn from Coach Altman…I just felt like it was a good fit for me with the way he runs his offense,” he told Oregon Ducks on SI. “Having two guards able to play on and off the ball… both guards that are able to shoot it, like to get downhill, attract other defenders, and make plays for other people.” 

The roster context amplifies the need. Beyond Shelstad and Simpkins, proven perimeter shooting is thin. Bittle’s 33.6 percent is real value from a seven-footer, but it’s a different kind of gravity—pick-and-pop, trail, and flare as a big, not a wing parked on the second side. Kwame Evans Jr. (26.9% on 1.5 3PA) hasn’t lived at volume yet. Devon Pryor arrives from Texas with tools but shot 18.8% from deep on low attempts last year. Jamari Phillips is a candidate to grow into it, but his freshman numbers (26.7% on 1.1 3PA) say “not yet.” That’s why Simpkins’ 36.7% on nearly six attempts per game matters more than the percentage alone—it’s the volume paired with credibility. This roster has playmaking and size, but it needs spacing and a true threat from three to reach its potential..

There’s also a clear defensive dividend if Simpkins hits shots. Altman’s best groups toggle between aggressive man and that matchup-zone DNA, but the common thread is lineup versatility. If Simpkins is truly a perimeter threat next to Shelstad, Oregon can stay bigger elsewhere without sacrificing pace. Miss those shots, and Altman has to chase offense with more guard minutes, which cuts into the length that typically fuels Oregon’s best defensive stretches. 

There’s also a cascading effect on the rotation. If Simpkins plants himself as a 38-ish percent high-volume shooter, Altman can be patient with Pryor and Phillips, use Evans in a defense-first role that doesn’t force shot-making, and keep Sean Stewart (Ohio State transfer) targeted at glass-and-activity lineups where his motor plays up. 

It’s not just that Simpkins makes shots; it’s that hitting them allows everyone else to play to their respective strengths. 

If there’s a concern, it’s the usual one with mid-major-to-high-major scorers: shot diet and physicality. Simpkins talked openly about standing in front of defenders and improving efficiency against Big Ten athletes, and it has been a major focus for both him and the team this offseason. He’s not going to create as much off the bounce, but that tradeoff only works if he hits spot-up threes consistently.

Simpkins can’t just be another option if Oregon is going to take a step forward from last season – he has to be the other proven perimeter shooter who changes how teams guard the Ducks.

Sananda Fru, Louisville

Louisville’s roster under Pat Kelsey is one of the more fascinating builds heading into the season. The backcourt is loaded with shooting. Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely are both proven high-volume, high-efficiency guards who can stretch defenses well beyond the arc. Mikel Brown is as hyped of a freshman guard as there is in the country, and Louisville is hoping he can be the focal point of the offense. Adrian Wooley adds another piece in that mold after transferring from Kennesaw State, where he was a 19-point scorer who hit over 42 percent from three. J’Vonne Hadley returns to provide toughness and versatility on the wing. And even the forwards around them, like Kasean Pryor and Aly Khalifa, prefer to operate on the perimeter as stretch options and connectors rather than traditional interior presences.

That leaves one glaring gap in an otherwise skill-heavy roster: a true interior anchor. And that’s where Sananda Fru enters the picture. At 6-11 with professional experience in Germany’s top league, Fru is Louisville’s lone traditional big man. He’s not here to float out on the perimeter, not here to be a secondary facilitator, not here to take four threes a game. His role is simple but critical: protect the rim, control the glass, and give the Cardinals the kind of physical paint presence that isn’t anywhere else on the rest of the roster.

It’s easy to overlook the importance of a player like Fru when surrounded by so much perimeter firepower. Pat Kelsey’s offense is always going to be guard-oriented, playing fast and bombing from deep. Conwell and McKneely alone attempted over 14 threes a game last year at a combined clip better than 41 percent. That kind of shooting spreads defenses out, creates gaps, and fuels the kind of tempo Kelsey’s teams thrived on at both Winthrop and Charleston. 

But all that spacing only truly clicks if there’s someone inside to balance the floor. Fru gives them that. Without him, Pryor and Khalifa are forced into roles they aren’t built for, defending stronger post players and banging inside on both ends, or Louisville is forced to play with a glaring and obvious weakness. Think about how much a struggling frontcourt and lack of size hurt teams like North Carolina and Baylor last season.

With him, they get to do what they do best — stretch, cut, pass, and attack mismatches — while Fru shoulders the grunt work.

His background suggests he’s ready for it. Fru is older than most incoming freshmen and was highly productive against grown men in Europe, a far different proving ground than high school gyms. He’s known for his motor and rebounding, for his willingness to run the floor and finish plays, and for the touch around the rim that prevents defenses from treating him as a non-scoring option. He doesn’t have to put up 15 points a night, but if he’s finishing pick-and-rolls at an efficient clip and converting offensive rebounds into easy buckets or kick-outs for threes, that’s more than enough to keep defenses honest.

Defensively, he might be even more important. The ACC is loaded with physical frontcourts and versatile wings who love to attack the paint. If Fru can anchor the rim and clean the glass, it lets Louisville’s guards extend pressure and hunt turnovers knowing there’s a backstop behind them.

The ripple effects are obvious. Fru’s presence allows Louisville to play the way this roster is designed — four shooters and one anchor, spreading defenses thin while still holding the paint. It maximizes the shooting gravity of Conwell, McKneely, and Wooley by keeping defenses from switching everything and clogging lanes. It maximizes Pryor’s versatility by letting him drift outside instead of wrestling with centers. It maximizes Khalifa’s playmaking by giving him another high-low option to feed. Without Fru, those strengths all start to blur.

That’s why, despite being a newcomer without the reputation of the guards around him, Fru might be the most important player on the roster. Louisville doesn’t need him to be a star. It needs him to be steady. That makes him not just a role player, but a swing piece — the kind of player whose impact might not always show up in the box score but will absolutely decide how successful the Cardinals will be.

Julius Halaifonua, Georgetown

Full disclosure, I am very close to being entirely bought in this being the breakthrough season of Ed Cooley’s rebuild. 

Much of this roster construction has focused on adding guards and wings who can compete physically in the Big East and win with toughness. Malik Mack was one of the most productive freshman guards in the country last year, KJ Lewis comes from Arizona as a versatile slasher and defender, and Langston Love adds perimeter shooting after multiple years at Baylor. Caleb Williams is a promising young forward, and there’s depth from transfers like Jeremiah Williams and DeShawn Harris-Smith.

What there isn’t is a clear, established presence inside. That’s supposed to be where Thomas Sorber would enter the picture, yet his better-than-expected freshman year – which vaulted him into the first round of the NBA Draft – created the problem of having to replace him in the middle.

Enter Julius Halaifonua. At seven feet tall, he’s the one true center on the roster with the tools to anchor both ends. Vincent Iwuchukwu transferred in from St. John’s, but he played sparingly and wasn't able to carve out consistent minutes at USC before that. This roster is guard-heavy, with wings who want to space the floor and attack in transition. That only works if there’s someone behind it all to rebound, protect the rim, and finish in traffic.

Halaifonua’s freshman numbers don’t jump off the page (3.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 13 minutes a night) but that was in limited action while adjusting to the physicality of the Big East. Even then, the flashes were there. He’s a massive body who takes up space in the paint, isn’t afraid to contest shots, and has the kind of frame that can carve out rebounding position against the league’s best frontcourts. His efficiency has to climb, but his strength and size are undeniable.

His play for New Zealand in this summer’s U19 World Cup showed everything he could be for the Hoyas, demonstrating a high level of skill to go along with that strength and size – the level of play that makes it easy to see why a breakout campaign may be coming.

That’s what makes him such an important piece for this team. Georgetown doesn’t need him to be a polished scorer. They need him to set solid screens to free Mack and Love, to be a lob target when defenses collapse, and to punish switches by finishing at the rim. He has shown the ability to step out and hit an open three in pick-and-pop situations, too. On defense, they need him to be the backstop that allows Lewis and Williams to pressure more aggressively on the perimeter. Guards can gamble more when they trust the rim is protected, and right now, Halaifonua is the only player on the roster with the physical tools to give them that confidence.

To risk belaboring this point, ripple effects matter. If Halaifonua becomes a reliable 20-minute presence, it stabilizes the entire rotation. It allows the Hoyas to play with pace knowing there’s rebounding behind the shooters. It allows Mack to run more pick-and-roll without every possession feeling like a drive into traffic. It allows the wings to play their preferred games instead of helping inside every trip down the floor. If he struggles, Georgetown risks being undersized and overextended defensively, with too much asked of Mack and Lewis to manufacture points in the halfcourt.

Georgetown’s ceiling isn’t going to be determined by one player, but their floor might be. This roster has scoring and shot creation in the backcourt but lacks real balance. Halaifonua is the player who can provide it. If he stays on the floor, finishes efficiently, and anchors the defense, the Hoyas can play the way Cooley wants — tough, connected, and capable of grinding out wins in the Big East. If not, they’re left scrambling to fill the paint with players best suited elsewhere, and the whole thing tilts out of balance.

That’s why Julius Halaifonua, even without gaudy numbers or a proven résumé, may be the most important piece of Georgetown’s season. He doesn’t need to be a star. He needs to be steady. And if he is, everything else around him will make a lot more sense.