Every October, exhibition games give us our first glimpse of what’s real and what’s just noise. It’s the college basketball version of a trailer — a few promising shots, a couple head-turning performances, and just enough misdirection to keep us guessing. The problem, of course, is that sometimes the trailer lies.
Still, these games matter more than most want to admit. They reveal early chemistry, pecking orders, and whether a team’s offseason buzz might actually translate when the ball tips. This year’s batch offered plenty to chew on: contenders with wrinkles, sleepers flashing real upside, and a few red flags for teams we thought were sure things.
Maybe it’s the transfer-heavy era we’re in, but this preseason felt especially unpredictable. Rosters turned over, styles shifted, and some of the biggest names in the sport looked mortal. Others? They already look like they’re in midseason form.
So, yes, it’s early. But that’s the fun of it. Here are my biggest takeaways from the 2025–26 exhibition slate: what’s worth overreacting to, and what might actually mean something when the real games start.
The race for National Player of the Year is going to be an all-timer
It has been a few years since there was any real drama surrounding the National Player of the Year race.
There were some real conversations between Johni Broome and Cooper Flagg during this past January, but it eventually became evident to everyone that Flagg was the best player in the country. Zach Edey’s dominance throughout the two seasons before that eliminated any real conversations before they got started. The last real race was in the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 season between Luka Garza and Obi Toppin.
This season’s race has a chance to be the most dramatic (and fun) since JJ Redick and Adam Morrison split the honors following the 2005-06 season.
Braden Smith and JT Toppin are the two leading returning candidates. Smith has a chance to break the NCAA all-time assist record while running the show for the preseason No. 1 team, while Toppin is the reigning Big 12 Player of the Year. There’s also legitimate support behind a trio of transfers in Donovan Dent, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Bennett Stirtz, all of whom dominated at their previous stops and will be go-to guys at the power conference level.
But it’s the freshman class that is going to make this a true race. BYU’s AJ Dybantsa was once dubbed a better prospect than Flagg and scored 30 points in his exhibition debut against Nebraska. Darryn Peterson, who is currently projected to be the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, scored an impressive 24 points in the first of his first exhibition game against Louisville. Then there’s Duke’s Cameron Boozer, who averaged 28.5 points, 17.5 rebounds and 5.0 assists across two exhibition games – including a monstrous 24-point, 23-rebound showing against Tennessee.
The intrigue surrounding those three will also make NBA Draft conversations incredibly interesting, and there’s a very real chance those three end up being the three best players in the country.
If the race only consisted of the returning players mentioned previously – along with whoever has a breakout season – that would be compelling unto itself. If it was just the freshmen, early returns indicate that race would be riveting as well.
To have all these players and this much talent in a single race should make for one of those seasons that will live in college basketball lore forever.
Purdue is a work in progress because of its frontcourt
Speaking of Purdue, I think we need to talk about where the Boilermakers actually are right now compared to expectations.
Matt Painter’s squad does have the talent and experience necessary to cut down the nets in Indianapolis in April. They can be the best team in the country.
But can and are carry two different meanings, and what Purdue can be is different from what the Boilermakers are right now.
Purdue is currently tasked with figuring out how to maximize two of its three or four best players in Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff. I wrote earlier this offseason about the potential issues this team may run into given that duo (along with Daniel Jacobsen) doesn’t stretch the floor. Playing two paint-bound bigs limits spacing offensively and can leave you exposed defensively when they have to defend on the perimeter.
The Boilermakers ran into those issues in their exhibition loss to Kentucky, which played a role in them ultimately losing by double digits.
Let’s look at the offensive end first. Any time Kaufman-Renn or Cluff got the ball on the perimeter, Kentucky was able to play incredibly tight man defense while the on-ball defender sagged and offered help. This worked because Kaufman-Renn (with the ball) is not a threat to shoot the three nor a threat to attack the basket off the bounce. The spacing typically provided by Purdue’s shooting isn’t there.
That lack of spacing caused real problems for Braden Smith, too, perhaps the best point guard in the sport. He has excelled his whole career at getting into the lane off ball screens, where his vision has made opponents pay for overhelping and his pull-up jumper has been unstoppable. Now dealing with two bigs, he’s diving into extra bodies.
Because Kaufman-Renn isn’t a threat from the perimeter, his defender can help on Smith and defend TKR at the same time. Smith also doesn’t have the ability to get to the basket – or at least the threat of getting to the basket – because Cluff’s post-up is in his way.
On the defensive end, Kentucky started putting both Cluff and TKR in perimeter actions during a stretch that broke the game open.
In the below image, Cluff tries to hedge on a pick-and-roll but isn’t quick enough to knock the ball-handler off his path, so he has to stay with him to avoid giving up an open driving lane. TKR is stuck between helping Cluff and defending his man, which causes him to fall out of position (you should rarely be higher up the court than the man you’re defending).
Because all this is happening on the perimeter, it leaves the roll man wide open for an uncontested dunk.
Let’s give the obvious caveats because, well, context does matter here.
This was just one game against a very good Kentucky team. This was also an exhibition game, which is designed for coaches to tinker with lineups, rotations, play calls, and defensive coverages to figure out what works and what doesn’t.
Matt Painter is an elite coach, and he’s on the shortlist of coaches I’d expect to be able to figure this out and figure it out quickly.
My concern, though, is that Painter largely punted on playing Trevion Williams and Zach Edey together four years ago for these very same reasons. It simply couldn’t work, and the result was that Purdue’s ceiling wasn’t the same.
That team was still very good, and this year’s team still will be, too. Yet expectations for Purdue have gone far beyond very good – this is the preseason No. 1 team in the country with national championship aspirations. The Boilermakers can still get there if they figure this out, but it’s clear they’re still a work in progress.
St. John’s has a backcourt problem
Speaking of works in progress, let’s talk about the point guard position at St. John’s!
There are plenty of jokes to be had here following Rick Pitino’s flip from calling UNC transfer Ian Jackson the “next great point” guard of the Red Storm to saying that “there are no point guards anymore,” but it may be in his team’s best interest to have a distributor.
The problem is that guy doesn’t appear to be on the roster.
Stanford transfer Oziyah Sellers got the start at point against Michigan in the Red Storm’s biggest exhibition game and fell flat, fouling out in just over eight minutes without recording another statistic. Arizona State transfer Joson Sanon started alongside him and recorded zero assists in over 14 minutes before also fouling out.
Jackson played 21 minutes off the bench in relief but was 1-8 shooting with as many turnovers (two) as points (two) and assists (two). Idaho State transfer Dylan Darling played the most of anyone in the backcourt, yet he also recorded just two assists to go along with two turnovers.
Center Zuby Ejiofor had nearly half (six) of all assists St. John’s had as a team (14).
“I set the schedule tough because I need to know [where we have to get better],” Pitino told reporters after the game. “If we played a [lesser] team, and we won the game easily, we don’t know what our weaknesses are. So I wanted to find out, and I found out tonight what our weaknesses are. It’s a great teaching tool.”
St. John’s still nearly beat Michigan, using elite defense and a dominant frontcourt to keep pace with the Wolverines before falling by two in overtime. Those traits have been staples of Pitino-coached teams, including last season’s Big East champions.
But if this season’s group is going to go further than the second round NCAA Tournament exit the program suffered this past March, the guards have to be much better and much more efficient creators.
We are getting Good North Carolina this season
A lot was made of North Carolina’s offseason given the amount it spent on its roster (reportedly $14 million) and how, despite that price tag, there are still questions about how all those pieces fit together and what looks like a make-or-break season for Hubert Davis.
I thought the roster looked fine on paper and, after two exhibition performances against BYU and Winston-Salem State, feel better about the Tar Heels than I did just a few weeks ago.
Let’s start in the backcourt, as the main concern about UNC’s roster was the lack of a true point guard. Kyan Evans and Seth Trimble will be tasked with splitting those duties as the starting backcourt, and both showed legitimate upside in the position.
Evans will be the starter at the one and showed no problems running the offense against BYU, where he finished with five assists and just one turnover in over 20 minutes of game action. Trimble, a career combo guard, has played some point when Evans is on the bench and also performed well with a positive assist-to-turnover ratio along with his elite defense.
There’s plenty of shooting and depth around that duo – which will only be bolstered once Luka Bogavac joins the fold, as he is expected to be cleared soon – which is exactly how Davis wants to play.
And then there’s the frontcourt, which looks better than advertised. Henri Veesaar has picked up right where he left off at Arizona as a rim-wrecking rebounding force, while Jarin Stevenson’s versatility has instantly made him one of UNC’s most important players.
That said, Caleb Wilson looks like a legitimate star. His athleticism jumps off the screen and his production (22 points, 10 rebounds, and three blocks against BYU before posting 23/10/3 vs. Winston-Salem State) shows just how impactful of a two-way force he can be.
A reliable frontcourt with a few high-level shotmaking guards is the formula North Carolina used to win the ACC just two seasons ago. Last season, the lack of any resembling a viable post presence kept it from reaching expectations.
The Tar Heels now have that again, along with a superstar in Wilson at the power forward position. That position has been the swing piece of Davis’ teams in Chapel Hill. His two good teams had Brady Manek and Harrison Ingram holding down the four spot. In his two bad seasons, the starting four has been occupied by Pete Nance and Jae’Lyn Withers.
This team has the makeup of a Good Hubert Davis Team. Expect it to stomp out preseason skepticism sooner rather than later.
Get ready for another season of SEC dominance
The SEC may not be as good as it was last year when it sent a record 14 teams (of the 16 teams in the league!!) to the NCAA Tournament, but I think it’s still far and away the best conference in college basketball.
Florida and Kentucky are the two preseason favorites and backed that up with double-digit victories over good Illinois and Purdue teams, respectively – and neither the Gators or Wildcats were at full strength. Alabama and Arkansas look as good as advertised, too, with the Razorbacks looking especially strong with high-level play from freshmen Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas. Those two appear to fit John Calipari’s system incredibly well and were key in Arkansas’ comeback victory over Memphis.
Even the teams projected to finish towards the bottom of the conference look good. Oklahoma, picked 12th in the preseason poll, beat Texas Tech in a scrimmage and Wisconsin in an exhibition – both the Red Raiders (#10) and Badgers (#24) are ranked in the AP Top 25. Vanderbilt beat a quality power conference team in Virginia while South Carolina, picked to finish last in the league, nearly ousted NC State.
There are still SEC teams I have questions about, some of which I become more skeptical of based on their performances during the preseason. Auburn has not looked the part, something that further questions about its ceiling in Steven Pearl’s debut season and there being real depth concerns. We’ll see if Tennessee has enough firepower alongside Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament to compete at the top of the conference as expected.
But by and large, the SEC continues to have the deepest league that should send more teams to the NCAA Tournament than anyone else.
