Rauf Report, March 7: Evaluating the legitimacy of five teams peaking at the right time

The final Rauf Report of the season takes a look at five teams on recent winning streaks. Which of them might be a threat to make noise in the NCAA Tournament?

It’s hard to believe that the end of the college basketball regular season is already here. Many teams will play their regular-season finale this weekend, and there will also be a handful of NCAA Tournament bids handed out. 

The best time of the year is upon us.

The common refrain among coaches in March is that you want your team peaking at the right time. Given the oft-fluky nature of a single-elimination postseason, everyone would rather be playing their best right now as opposed to having a better overall body of work. A strong November doesn’t mean much if you’re looking weak in early March.

Those bodies of work will help teams’ NCAA Tournament seeding — and perhaps their bubble status — but the programs that are feeling the best right now are the ones that are hot.

The teams at the top of the polls have pretty much been there all season. But there are a handful of others that may have been inconsistent earlier in the year but have now caught fire. Many look capable of making a run in March.

This Rauf Report looks at a few of those teams to gauge the legitimacy of their recent surges.

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BYU Cougars

Following a Jan. 18 overtime loss to Utah, the Cougars dropped to 2-4 in Big 12 play without having faced many of the teams in the top half of the league. And just a month ago, BYU sat 6-6 in league play after back-to-back losses to Arizona and Cincinnati, the latter of which came by 18 points.

Since then, however, this team has looked phenomenal. The Cougars have won seven in a row, with wins over Kansas, Arizona and Iowa State among the five Quad 1 victories they have picked up over this span. According to BartTorvik.com, BYU has been the nation’s second-best team during this stretch — behind only Duke.

“I know the MO of this team: toughness and physically,” head coach Kevin Young said following the win over Iowa State on Monday, noting the team turned a corner over the past couple months.

“With this particular team, we’ve found that just focusing on the next thing is the most important,” he added. “I know that sounds super coachy, but it’s what makes us good. We haven’t looked down the road really at all.”

If we are to look down the road, though, BYU looks likely to carry its momentum well into the NCAA Tournament. Egor Demin‘s size and playmaking ability make him a matchup nightmare for everyone. Richie Saunders is one of the most efficient scorers in the country, and there’s a depth of other scoring options, too. With Keba Keita emerging as a rebounding and rim-protecting force inside, this veteran group checks a lot of the boxes for teams that make long runs.

Of course, we’ll see if the Cougars can do that. But for now, BYU looks like a team that could make the second weekend — and potentially go even further.

Oregon Ducks

Dana Altman always seems to have his teams playing their best in March, and his Ducks are currently on a six-game win streak. This run does come on the heels of a five-game losing streak, but four of those losses came on the road.

Oregon’s defense has been a top-20 unit during this stretch, which has helped, but it has also gotten more consistent contributions from role players. Keeshawn Barthelemy has scored in double figures in four of the last six games, including 20 points in the win over USC. TJ Bamba has been better, especially as a playmaker, while Nate Bittle has returned to the star form he showed earlier this season (17.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 3.7 bpg during the win streak).

“I don’t know where we’d be without him,” Altman said of Bittle following the Indiana win last week. “He’s a presence in there. Big body, big guy with a whole lot of experience.”

All that being said, Jackson Shelstad has been the difference-maker. The sophomore guard has stepped up every time the Ducks have been tested, hitting big shots to force overtime against Wisconsin and to push Oregon past Indiana.

Nothing matters more than guard play in the NCAA Tournament, especially when you have someone who can create their own shot and step up in big moments. Shelstad does all of that as well as anyone in the country, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him carry the Ducks to a few wins.

Remember, this is the same Oregon team that won the Player’s Era Festival back in November and has eight Quad 1 victories. Overall consistency issues could keep them from reaching the Final Four, but I would not be shocked to see the Ducks playing in the Sweet 16.

Louisville Cardinals

Louisville is perhaps the most interesting team on this list. The Cardinals boast a 24-6 record and have risen to No. 14 in the AP Poll, thanks in large part to winning 18 of their last 19 games. That’s incredibly impressive considering where this program has been the last two years, and that it’s only the first season for head coach Pat Kelsey.

Nevertheless, it’s fair to wonder how much of that gaudy record is due to Louisville’s strength and how much is because of how bad the ACC is.

The Cardinals haven’t played a Quad 1 game since Jan. 21, and they struggled in nonconference play. The early months were when Louisville played most of its better opponents, and it ranked 74th nationally in efficiency, per Torvik. In ACC play, however, Louisville ranks in the top 10.

Now, there are several other factors in play. Louisville dealt with a rash of injuries early in the season to players who were expected to be major contributors. It took some time to settle on a rotation and to find which pieces fit together. It was everyone’s first season with the program — both the coaching staff and the roster, which had complete turnover from last season. Things were always going to take time to gel.

So, has Louisville just settled into its true identity as one of the country’s better teams? Or is it simply benefitting from the worst ACC in history?

The answer is likely a little bit of both. Chucky Hepburn’s play and Louisville’s explosive offense — particularly its 3-point shooting — will make the Cards dangerous in March. Still, the real litmus test will be how they fare in the latter stages of the ACC Tournament, when they finally see top competition again.

Xavier Musketeers

Xavier has surged back into the bubble picture thanks to a six-game win streak and an 11-3 record over its last 14 games. Defense has led the way in this turnaround, as Sean Miller’s squad ranks 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency since Jan. 11, per Torvik. The Musketeers also rank as the nation’s 12th-best team during the last six games.

However, it’s fair to wonder if Xavier has actually turned things around or if it has simply hit a light part of its Big East schedule. Five of the six victories have come against the bottom four teams in the conference, all of whom are well below .500 on the season. The validating victory came last weekend against Creighton, when the Musketeers led by as many as 24 points in a blowout victory.

Xavier is still just 1-9 in Quad 1 games but beat UConn and pushed St. John’s to overtime during late January. It also has avoided any disastrous losses, with its only non-Q1 loss coming at Georgetown.

It is also worth noting that Zach Freemantle missed three games during a stretch in late December and early January when Xavier went 1-5. His return is a big reason why the Musketeers find themselves in much better position now.

Much like Louisville, though, there are still some unknowns about the Musketeers because of how light the schedule has been of late. On the other hand, we do know they have struggled against Q1 teams all season long. Xavier may get into the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn’t expect the Musketeers to make much noise if they do.

VCU Rams

The Rams have put themselves in position to receive an at-large bid thanks to a 15-1 mark in their last 16 games. Meanwhile, advanced metrics have helped them overcome an early season Quad 4 loss to Seton Hall. To that point, VCU ranks as a top-10 team on Torvik since Feb. 1 and a top-25 team since the start of January. The Rams have also amassed a 5-4 record against the top two quadrants, including a 2-1 mark in Q1 games. It’s a solid resume.

Defense leads the way for head coach Ryan Odom’s squad, but VCU ranks in the top 26 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency since Jan. 1, per Torvik. That balance has allowed the Rams to clinch a share of the A-10 title, which they can clinch outright on Friday with a win over Dayton. 

Combined with the historical success of both Odom as a coach and VCU as an NCAA Tournament participant, the Rams’ recent run of form gives plenty of reason to believe in them moving forward.

However, VCU has not beaten a team currently projected to make the Big Dance. In fact, it has only played one game against a projected at-large team — New Mexico — and it lost that game.

For that reason, I don’t think this VCU team will make a deep March run. However, its depth of scoring options — four players average double figures, led by Max Shulga and Joe Bamisile — make the Rams a double-digit seed capable of pulling a first-round upset.