Every year, we spin up predictions. Who wins each league, who steps up, who falls off. But this one feels different. We’re entering a season of uncertainty—rosters are shifting deeper, transfers are more volatile, and the gaps between haves and have-nots feel tighter than ever. So instead of playing it safe, this year’s edition of Bold Predictions leans into the chaos.

We’re not just projecting champions, though there is certainly some of that. We’re asking: Who shocks us? Who breaks through in unlikely ways? What trends will surprise us? What bold narratives will define March?

Across all 31 conferences, I’ll be picking a mix of favorites, dark horses, and wild cards. Some calls I love; some I fear may backfire. But that’s the fun in this game. 

Let’s go.

America East

VERMONT BECOMES FIRST TEAM IN THE COUNTRY TO CLAIM CONFERENCE TITLE

I think Vermont is and should be the clear favorite to win the league…again. The Catamounts are experiencing a good amount of roster turnover, just like everyone else in the America East, yet most of their new pieces are quality veterans. Throw in the return of TJ Hurley, TJ Long, and the arrival of 6-foot-6 Spanish point guard Lucas Mari, and John Becker has a roster that looks to be two or three steps ahead of everyone else. 

American

DUG MCDANIEL WINS AMERICAN PLAYER OF THE YEAR

I understand the jokes that are often made at Dug McDaniel’s expense but, when he’s engaged and allowed to play with freedom, McDaniel is dynamite with the ball in his hands. Penny Hardaway’s teams have done well with similar lead guards – think Kendric Davis and Jahvon Quinerly – so I expect McDaniel to have the best season of his career. 

ASUN

THERE’S A THREE-WAY TIE FOR THE CONFERENCE TITLE

The ASUN has been home to some heated conference races in the last half decade since expansion, and this season should be another showcase of that parity. There has been a shared conference regular season title in two of the last three seasons, and the 2025-26 campaign begins with five or six teams feeling confident in their chances to claim the crown. I think we see a three-way tie.

Atlantic 10

SAINT LOUIS WINS LEAGUE TITLE BY MULTIPLE GAMES

I was already high on the Billikens before exhibition season got underway given the return of Robbie Avila and the quality transfer class Josh Schertz put together. But after a 99-74 victory over Iowa last weekend, there’s a chance Saint Louis might be really good. There are a lot of good teams in the A-10, many of whom will likely beat up on each other, but I’m betting on this Saint Louis team being top-25 quality and the clear class of the league.

ACC

NORTH CAROLINA FINISHES AHEAD OF DUKE IN THE ACC STANDINGS

On paper, UNC looks awesome. I understand concerns about the lack of a true point guard, yet all reports out of Chapel Hill indicate that will not be a concern once live games get underway thanks to Kyan Evans’ ability to operate the pick-and-roll. But you know who else may have a point guard problem? Duke! The Blue Devils are relying on Cayden Boozer to be ready to handle big minutes from the jump or for Caleb Foster to play like he did at the end of last season – and not like the guy who was out of the rotation for two months.

For all the criticism that has been (perhaps rightfully) thrown at Hubert Davis, he has also won an ACC title and been to a national championship game in his short tenure as UNC’s head man. The Heels have a deep and talented frontcourt, plenty of shooting and more quality depth than they’ve had under Davis. 

I don’t know if North Carolina will win the league – Louisville is pretty dang good, too, and who knows what the ceiling might be for NC State or Virginia – but I think it’ll finish ahead of its biggest rival. 

Big 12

MILOS UZAN WINS NATIONAL PLAYER OF THE YEAR

One overlooked aspect from last season was how dominant Uzan was during Big 12 play. In Houston’s last 17 games before the NCAA Tournament, the 6-foot-4, 190-pounder averaged 14.2 ppg and 3.8 apg while emerging as the true lead guard for Kelvin Sampson’s squad. Sampson credited Uzan’s increased aggressiveness for the elevated level of play. 

Now, without LJ Cryer as a running mate, Uzan’s role is set to grow even more. If Houston is as good as we expect and Uzan takes even the slightest step forward, he’s going to garner a lot of attention from both media and opposing coaches.

Big East

GEORGETOWN FINISHES THIRD IN CONFERENCE STANDINGS

I wrote an in-depth column on why I’m high on Georgetown (I know, I might be taking crazy pills) but I truly believe the Hoyas are in for a breakout. Malik Mack showed he could be a quality guard at the power conference level, and the additions of KJ Lewis (Arizona) and Langston Love (Baylor) appear to be perfect complements to him and each other. Ed Cooley’s squad also projects to have more depth.

If the Hoyas can get reliable production from the center position – either from Julius Halaifonua or Vincent Iwuchukwu (or both) – this is a group that can take advantage of an open Big East behind UConn and St. John’s.

Big Sky

MONEY WILLIAMS WINS CONFERENCE PLAYER OF THE YEAR, LEADS MONTANA BACK TO NCAA TOURNAMENT

Money Williams was, well, money for the Grizzlies as a sophomore, leading the team in both scoring and assist rate. He showed flashes of being a truly dominant force, but those flashes were inconsistent. I expect him to take a step forward with a full offseason to prepare for being “the guy” in this offense, which should make him “the guy” in the league.

Big South

HIGH POINT CRUISES TO REGULAR SEASON TITLE, FALLS IN BIG SOUTH TOURNAMENT

High Point had to turn over virtually its entire roster following Alan Huss’ departure for Creighton, but Flynn Clayman put together a roster (with the help of High Point’s “resources”) that should be the best in the league again. However, crazy things seem to happen in the Big South Tournament every year, and I expect it to produce one of March’s unexpected NCAA Tournament entrants.

Big Ten

BRADEN SMITH SETS NCAA CAREER ASSISTS RECORD

Smith needs 319 assists to break Bobby Hurley’s all-time mark of 1,076. He had 313 assists last season and has more talent around him thanks to the addition of Oscar Cluff. If he averages 8.9 assists and plays in 36 games as he did a season ago, he will break Hurley’s mark. That’s not a tall ask given his 8.7 apg average in 2024-25.

Big West

UC IRVINE MAKES NCAA TOURNAMENT, HAS TOP 50 KENPOM DEFENSE

Russell Turner has done a terrific job with UC Irvine and returns five rotation players from a team that won 32 games and finished with a top-20 defense in the country. Derin Saran is back with the Anteaters after spending his sophomore season with Stanford, proving to be the rare transfer addition that also adds to continuity. UC Irvine has routinely produced top-100 defenses over the last decade and I don’t expect this season to be any different.

CAA

PAT SKERRY BREAKS THROUGH, TAKES TOWSON TO NCAA TOURNAMENT

It has to happen for Pat Skerry at some point, right? He has turned Towson around from a 1-31 campaign in his first season to a program that has won 20+ games each of the last four seasons. However, he hasn’t been able to guide the Tigers back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1991. Towson has a pair of legitimate stars in Dylan Williamson and Tyler Tejada, both of whom help carry this program back to the dance.

Conference USA

THREE LIBERTY PLAYERS MAKE THE ALL-CUSA FIRST TEAM

Liberty is the preseason favorite to win C-USA and I’m picking them to represent the conference in the NCAA Tournament. The main reason for the hype surrounding the Flames is the returning trio of Colin Porter, Kaden Metheny and Zach Cleveland. All three were All-CUSA selections last season and all three played roughly 32 minutes per game for Ritchie McKay. Expect all three to produce in major roles again, racking up year-end honors in the process.

Horizon

YOUNGSTOWN STATE MAKES FIRST EVER NCAA TOURNAMENT

The Penguins have been knocking on the NCAA Tournament’s door for a few years now. Jerrod Calhoun got things rolling and Ethan Faulkner maintained that momentum in his first season as head coach, winning 21 games and guiding Youngstown State to the Horizon League title game. Bryson Dawkins (Houston Christian) and Vladimer Salaridze (UT-Martin) averaged double figures at previous stops and should fit well next to returning contributors Jason Nelson and Cris Carroll. If D-II transfer Cam Polak (California (PA)) contributes as the staff believes he can, the Penguins will have perhaps the league’s best roster.

Ivy

YALE SWEEPS IVY INDIVIDUAL AWARDS

Yale has been one of the Ivy’s elite throughout the James Jones era and the Bulldogs are expected to be the class of the league. Not only is Jones the best coach in the league, but Yale also has maybe the best player (Nick Townsend), most hyped newcomer in freshman guard Courtney Wallace Jr. and a great rim protector in Samson Aletan. Don’t be surprised if it's an all-Yale affair at the Ivy League postseason awards ceremony.

MAAC

SIENA WINS REGULAR SEASON TITLE, GERRY MCNAMARA LEAVES FOR SYRACUSE AT END OF SEASON

Timing is everything, and Siena enters Year 2 of the Gerry McNamara era at the same time Red Autry is facing a make-or-break Year 3 at Syracuse. If the Orange underdeliver with this roster (14-19 last season), I wouldn’t be shocked if they make a change – especially if favorite son McNamara has Siena performing at a high level. 

MAC

MIAMI (OH) WINS FIRST MAC TITLE IN TWO DECADES

There’s something to be said for finding your level. Travis Steele did not work out at Xavier (perhaps following Chris Mack raised expectations a little too much) but has worked out very well in Oxford. The RedHawks have seen their win total increase every season under Steele, going 12-20 his first season to 15-17 in 2023-24 to a whopping 25-9 last year. With six rotation players back, including leader scorer Peter Suder, I expect Miami (OH) to make another jump under Steele.

MEAC

NORFOLK STATE RETURNS TO THE NCAA TOURNAMENT, ROBERT JONES GETS HIRED AWAY

Jones is one of the better coaches in the mid-major ranks and has guided Norfolk State to three of the last five NCAA Tournaments. I think he has long deserved a bigger opportunity, but he’ll have the Spartans as the class of the MEAC for as long as he’s there. However, if Norfolk State goes dancing again, someone at a higher level is bound to take a chance on him.

Missouri Valley

NORTHERN IOWA SWEEPS CONFERENCE REGULAR SEASON AND TOURNAMENT TITLES

Drake and Bradley have been mainstays atop the Missouri Valley for a while now, but it wasn’t too long ago that Ben Jacobson and Northern Iowa were that dominant force. The Panthers have a great chance to get back to that status in 2025-26. Five players who averaged over 21 minutes per game return, giving UNI continuity that few other top teams in the league have. If someone steps up to replace Tytan Anderson’s scoring (Trey Campbell? Tristan Smith?), Northern Iowa might be the team to beat in the Valley.

Mountain West

GRAND CANYON HAS A BETTER SEASON THAN SAN DIEGO STATE

*deep breath*

Hear me out – this is more a positive outlook on Grand Canyon than it is a referendum on San Diego State, though I do think the Aztecs have a limited ceiling with a lack of offensive creators. Reese Waters may be the only one I trust to be able to create his own shot, and even that is streaky and inconsistent.

Grand Canyon, on the other hand, has the pieces to thrive in its first season in the Mountain West. Dusty Stromer comes in from Gonzaga hoping a change of scenery can lead to a breakout campaign, while UNLV transfer Jaden Henley is already a proven contributor at this level. If Nana Owusu-Anane delivers on 75 percent of what is being said about how good he has been for the Lopes this offseason, GCU may end up competing for the conference championship.

NEC

LIU WINS LEAGUE BY MULTIPLE GAMES, MALACHI DAVIS WINS NEC PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Perhaps no league experienced more offseason roster turnover as the NEC, putting an extra premium on returning production. LIU got two huge boosts when Malachi Davis and Jamal Fuller opted to return after being vital cogs for the Sharks a season ago. I think that continuity and star power propels LIU to the league title while Davis -- a reigning first team All-NEC selection – solidifies himself as the conference’s best player.

OVC

JOHNATHAN LAWSON WINS OVC PLAYER OF THE YEAR

After spending his freshman season at Memphis and sophomore campaign at Creighton, Lawson appears to have found a home at Little Rock. The 6-foot-6, 185-pounder played over 37 minutes per game last season while scoring 15.4 ppg on efficient shooting splits. He’s the most talented player in the league and one who could very well carry Little Rock to a conference title.

Patriot

COLGATE RETURNS TO NCAA TOURNAMENT

American ended Colgate’s streak of four consecutive Patriot League Tournament titles last season. The 2024-25 campaign was also the first time the Raiders finished below .500 under Matt Langel since 2016-17. Navy and Boston U have quality teams as well – don’t be surprised if there’s a split conference title – but I’ll lean on Langel’s coaching acumen and the continuity of his group come March.

SEC

TEXAS A&M FINISHES THE SEASON RANKED IN THE TOP 25

I did a deep dive on Texas A&M earlier this offseason and why I think Bucky Ball can work in the SEC. There are warranted concerns about some of the pieces on this roster, yet I’d argue the most important question marks – Mackenzie Mgbako, Pop Isaacs and Rylen Griffen – have all played their best basketball in up-tempo systems similar to this. 

The SEC is going to be stacked again. That means there will be plenty of opportunities for the Aggies to garner notable victories, and I think they capitalize on enough to finish in the top half of the SEC and earn a spot in the postseason Top 25. 

SoCon

WOFFORD FINISHES WITH THE LEAGUE’S BEST OFFENSE

I do not agree with Wofford’s decision to part with Dwight Perry, and the details of how that went down certainly raise more questions that we don’t need to get into for the purposes of this column. But the Terriers did bring in Kevin Giltner, a former player that has spent the last decade on Mike Young’s staff at both Wofford and Virginia Tech. He knows how to run the kind of offense that worked so well for the Terriers under Young, and this roster is one that has plenty of shooting. It will take time for Giltner, this staff and this roster to find their footing, but this could be a dangerous group come the end of the season.

Southland

INCARNATE WORD GOES DANCING FOR THE FIRST TIME

Incarnate Word went from an 8-23 mark in head coach Shane Heirman’s first season to a 19-17 record last year, which was the first time in a decade that the program finished the season above .500. Double-digit scorers Davion Bailey and Jordan Pyke return, and will play alongside a pair of transfers in Tahj Staveskie (Cleveland State) and Harold Woods (Northeastern) that also averaged double figures at the D-I level. With Will Wade no longer at McNeese, the door is open for someone else to move to the top of the Southland, and UIW has the firepower to do so.

SWAC

JACKSON STATE SWEEPS LEAGUE TITLES, WINS FIRST FOUR GAME

Jackson State lost its first 13 games last season – meaning it did not pick up a single non-conference victory. However, all those games were played away from home. In SWAC play, the Tigers went 14-4 and were two possessions away from going to the NCAA Tournament. Mo Williams returns star Daeshun Ruffin, double-digit scorers Dorian McMillian and Jayme Mitchell, and a group determined to get over the hump in 2026. I think Jackson State does just that.

Summit

ST. THOMAS WINS LEAGUE, MAKES TOURNAMENT IN FIRST SEASON ELIGIBLE

The Tommies have wasted no time becoming a force in the Summit League. The program went 10-20 in its first Division I season in 2021-22, which has been followed by three straight campaigns with at least 19 wins. A wide open conference should make this an exciting race, but I’ll give St. Thomas the edge because of their returning production, quality transfers in Nick Janowski (Nebraska) and Isaiah Johnson-Arigu (Miami), and a good amount of depth.

This is a young team, too, with only guard Ryan Dufault entering his final season of eligibility. The Tommies could be a force in the Summit for a few years.

Sun Belt

SUN BELT REPEATS LAST SEASON’S FINAL DAY DRAMA

Let me take you back to the last week of February, when a handful of teams in the Sun Belt all had a chance to win a share of a conference title with two games to play. There were too many scenarios to parse, but it ultimately came down to this:

Texas State won that game and there was that four-way split title. The Sun Belt may not have any great teams, but it has a lot of good ones that are on the same relative tier. Expect similar February drama in 2026. 

WCC

THE WCC SENDS FOUR TEAMS TO THE NCAA TOURNAMENT

This might be the boldest take of all. Of course Gonzaga is going to make the dance, that’s what they do. Saint Mary’s, too. But getting a third team into March Madness has been a consistent struggle as teams like San Francisco and Santa Clara haven’t put forth the requisite resumes despite being quality squads. I think that changes this year. Both the Dons and Broncos do enough to get over the finish line, giving the WCC four bids before Gonzaga leaves for the Pac-12. 

WAC

TARLETON STATE MAKES NOISE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER

I don’t know what to make of the WAC. I do know that Billy Gillispie, Dior Johnson and Tarleton State seem to be magnets for headlines (as we’ve already seen this month). It wouldn’t surprise me to hear about Tarleton’s on court success given the talent on this roster. Hearing about off-court noise wouldn’t surprise me, either. The only thing I’m sure of is that the Texans will keep us on our toes.