New Coaches, New Schemes: The Continuity Hires, Part III

New Coaches, New Schemes wraps up with a final look at established assistants moving into head coaching roles at South Dakota State, Cleveland State, and Longwood, which of course implies a certain degree of schematic and stylistic continuity within the program.

With Eric Henderson moving on to Drake, Bryan Peterson was a natural progression for South Dakota State after spending six seasons with Henderson as an offensive architect and developer of one of the best ball screen continuity and post action offenses in the midmajor ranks season after season. Peterson's promotion also maintains the running Greg McDermott connection for the Jackrabbit program that dates back to TJ Otzelberger's hire in 2016.

Peterson's promotion also helped SDSU maintain a relatively high degree of roster continuity, with the Jacks' potential starting 5 comprised entirely of returnees. Peterson also didn't add anyone from the portal with D-1 experience (although D-2 import Luke Haertle was at Wisconsin two seasons ago).

Of course that doesn't mean the portal spared SDSU entirely, as Peterson has an Oscar Cluff sized hole in the offensive production to fill. During the Henderson/Peterson era, SDSU has always maintained a 90th+ percentile post rate nationally, but with Cluff last season the Jacks had the highest post rate in the entire country. The leader to slide into the prominent 5 role within this offensive scheme is the incumbent, Damon Wilkinson. Wilkinson naturally saw limited run as Cluff's understudy last season, and he mostly did what you would expect him to do in this offense, which is operate as a back to the basket scorer:

Cluff wasn't just a block banger however, but a deft post passer out of the relentless doubles and traps he saw (6th highest assist rate in Summit play), and of course an absolutely dominant two-way rebounder, perhaps the best in the entire country in fact. Wilkinson did flash some passing skills out of the post last season (and he wouldn't have been recruited to this scheme without that package in his game):

While Wilkinson likely breaks fall with the lion's share of minutes at the 5, freshman Davis Kern is a legitimate threat to his starting role given his more diverse skill set. Kern can play with his back to the basket, but can also play on the perimeter as both a shooter and facilitator, ready made offensively for this scheme.

He's not as big as Wilkinson and will struggle defensively, but for all that size Wilkinson was a below average post defender and graded out in just the 2nd percentile nationally as a rim defender, allowing 1.47 PPP per Synergy data.

Of the three virtually interchangeable lead/combo guard returnees- Kalen Garry, Joe Sayler, and Jaden Jackson)- Garry is the most skilled option. He ended up second just behind Cluff in overall on/off efficiency margin at +16.1 points (per EvanMiya data), and can play through the ball screen within the continuity offense or off the ball. He wasn't a crazy efficient ball screen operator (.835 PPP, 62nd percentile) or a particularly strong rim finisher (1.11 PPP, 43rd percentile), but he was crafty with his dribble and scored in the 85th percentile as a catch and shoot target:

Sayler meanwhile is practically an identical player to Garry- same height and weight, both shot 33% from 3 on nearly the same amount of attempts- but Sayler was a touch more efficient in ball screen utilization.

Sayler however clocked in with a -10 on/off defensive efficiency margin split, where Garry was a significantly better defender on the ball (which was a teamwide issue for the Jacks in general, and partially why they play one of the saggiest man to man defenses in the country).

Jaden Jackson is the final key returnee in the backcourt, and again, profiles similarly to Garry and Sayler as a capable if unspectacular ball screen/DHO operator and rim finisher:

On the wing/4, Matthew Mors returns to his role as cutter extraordinaire, where he was Cluff's favorite target off the post help:

But the issue for Mors and the Jackrabbit offense as a whole will be the fact Wilkinson/Kern won't command a fraction of the post respect Cluff did, and while Mors is a capable enough shooter, he only had 31 3PT attempts in Summit play. This lack of stretchiness is compounded by the loss of Owen Larson's deadeye shooting, which followed Eric Henderson to Drake.

SDSU did upgrade the wing athleticism with redshirt freshman Andrell Burton surprisingly not following Henderson to Drake (he was originally recruited to Drake during the DeVries era), and the aforementioned Haertle was a deadly shooter at Winona State last season after leaving Wisconsin. Haertle did it mostly off the dribble as well, while also being lethal via catch and shoot:

Defensively, it will be interesting to see if Peterson continues the constantly underscreening ball screen coverage that has led to extremely high 3PTA rates (361st and 359th in defensive 3PTA rate the past two seasons) with the trade off a 1st percentile rim rate:

My hunch would be this type of defense continues given Sayler and Jackson's on-ball/ball screen defensive issues and Wilkinson's porous rim protection.

As is the case for most of these continuity hires, there's little expectation for revolutionary schematic changes, and that's certainly true for the Jacks in Peterson's first season, especially given the relatively high degree of roster retention.

Rob Summers is a bit of an exception to the "continuity" hire, as he's an extension of the Dennis Gates era, not the immediate precedent of the Daniyal Robinson era, who left for North Texas. Summers spent last season back on Gates' staff at Missouri after being with Gates as an offensive coordinator for the entirety of his 3 season tenure at Cleveland State.

In general terms, the Dennis Gates brand of basketball is rooted in his mentor Leonard Hamilton's style of aggressive pressure on the rim offensively, on the ball defensively, and a major emphasis on early/transition offense- plus a tendency to mix things up with various extended zone looks. In Gates' best season at Cleveland State in 20-21 (with Summers beside him of course), the Vikings owned a 73rd percentile transition rate offensively, 87th percentile rim rate, and led the Horizon League in free throw rate. Defensively CSU sported a 92nd percentile press rate (with the HL's highest defensive turnover rate)

and an 81st percentile zone rate (typically a morphing 2-2-1 into basic 2-3), which resulted in one of the highest jump shot rates allowed in the country (and consequently all 6 of Gates' teams have been dreadful defensive rebounding units, although it's a bit unfair to use Houston to highlight this fact).

Generally speaking, I would anticipate these are the marks Summers is looking to hit on both ends of the floor in his first season as a D-1 head coach, so let's dive into an entirely and expected new personnel for the Vikings this year.

Gates and Summers' offensive schemes have always relied heavily on "positionless" wing creators, and I think that's where I'll start, with Akron transfer Josiah Harris. Harris has a high major pedigree with two seasons at West Virginia before immediately getting hurt as a Zip last season, but there's very little video evidence of him being a Torrey Patton type player for this Vikings offense. He did take a few ball screens at West Virginia and you can see the vision Summers might have for him given his size and ball skill package.

Harris is probably best served however in a majority spacer/shooter role as an athletic 4, and the real upside wing creation lies with George Washington transfer Dayan Nessah. At 6'7, Nessah showcased an incredibly diverse skill set for Switzerland at the FIBA U19s, probing the paint off ball screens and scoring 1.76 PPP on catch and shoots- potentially a sparkling diamond in the rough find for Summers.

Elsewhere on the wing, Summers is hoping Foster Wonders can rediscover his shooting form from two season ago at Green Bay, where he drilled 41% of his league triples on high volume in Sunny Wicks' system, but unbelievably fell to 29% on the season last year. Certainly shot profile played a large role in that, as Wonders is strictly a catch and shoot option, and his unguarded attempts totaled 73 two years ago, but just 47 last season. FIU transfer Jaidon Lipscomb is essentially the same player offensively as Wonders, but has experience in a high press rate system under Jeremy Ballard, and will be a potentially useful two-way piece on the wing.

Wing production is key in a Gates/Summers system, and perhaps even more so with this roster composition, as the backcourt rotation is a significantly large question mark. Ice Emery led Western Carolina in on/off offensive margin split at +7 points, which tells you how awful WCU was offensively last year, as Emery was brutally inefficient as a combo guard for the Catamounts, shooting 28% from 3 on massive volume and sporting a higher turnover rate than assist rate. Emery was however relatively efficient in ball screens, but Tim Craft doesn't run a PNR heavy offense, so he was perhaps "misutilized".

Tre Beard is a jitterbug type lead guard at 5'10 and can shoot the cover off (47% from 3 at Shawnee State), but the leap from NAIA to D-1 is obviously chasmic, especially at his size.

While my concerns about the backcourt are potentially catastrophic, my frontcourt worries for Summers are fatalistic. There's no D-1 experienced size on the roster outside of Holden Pierre-Louis' 3 games at Temple. This means Harris will almost assuredly have to lineup at the 4, potentially alongside D-2 import Lucas Burton, who was actually a highly efficient roller and rim finisher at Maryville last season (but is curiously listed as a "wing" on Cleveland State's official roster).

Frankly, my expectations are quite low for the Vikings in Summers' first season, as there are massive holes in the backcourt and especially frontcourt. An optimistic outlook would be Summers striking gold with Nessah and finishing around the middle of the pack like Gates did in his first season in Cleveland.

Griff Aldrich joining Ryan Odom's staff at Virginia opened the door at Longwood for our final continuity hire, Ronnie Thomas. Thomas spent the last 4 seasons on Aldrich's bench in Farmville, and his promotion also led to the Lancers being able to retain a few key players from the most successful era in Longwood basketball history.

Before we get into player retention and portal additions for Thomas, let's discuss in broad strokes Aldrich's schemes on both ends of the floor, with Thomas likely extending several parts of those systems to his own era.

Offensively, Longwood typically used a ball screen continuity/flow offense, generally hovering around a 40% PNR rate in every season of Aldrich's tenure. The continuity offense featured heavy cutting but very little off-ball screening and isolation, generally resulting in significantly higher rim rates than 3PT attempt rates the last several seasons (excluding his first two seasons in Farmville, where the Lancers were a top 10 3PTA rate team nationally). Aldrich also placed a massive emphasis on offensive rebounding (led the Big South in OREB rate in 3 of the last 4 seasons). A typical Longwood halfcourt possession last season:

Defensively, Aldrich's defenses were notorious for relentless ball screen denial via aggressive hedging/playing two to the ball, switching, and immediate help on the dribble.

As a result, Longwood's defense produced a top 3 turnover rate in Big South play in all 7 seasons of the Aldrich era except his first. Last season this defense allowed just an 11th percentile ball screen rate, with a 27% turnover rate forced on those opportunities (per Synergy data). Of course the trade off for an aggressive hedge and help defense is likely a high 3PT attempt rate allowed, and that's exceptionally true for the Aldrich era Lancers, who were routinely lodged in the 300s nationally in that regard.

Given that Thomas inherits a reasonably substantial returning core from last year's team, I think it's safe to believe Longwood will a play a similar style in his first season at the helm. Chief among those returnees is Elijah Tucker, the Lancers' slightly undersized but efficient post/rim option. Tucker logged an 86th percentile post rate, which unsurprisingly corresponded with an 83rd percentile rim rate, with an 86th percentile efficiency rate (per Synergy data). We saw Tucker scoring with his back to the basket in the first clip of Longwood's continuity offense, but he was also a hyper efficient roll/lob threat that frequently finished with athleticism.

The former Xavier recruit was also an elite rebounder, logging top 10 offensive and defensive rebounding rates in Big South play- a legitimately strong building block for Thomas' first season. Tucker does have his drawbacks however, as he's a one-dimensional threat offensively with no passing or shooting ability, and he somehow managed to not record a single blocked shot in Big South games last season (granted, he was used as a hedge and help big, which often drew him away from the paint defensively). His foul rate also limited his ability to consistently contribute 20 minutes per night.

Another member of Longwood's frontcourt, Johan Nziemi, withdrew from the portal, and he was actually Longwood's second most efficient overall player last season when using EvanMiya's on/off margin splits. Offensively, Nziemi is essentially a smaller version of Tucker- high post and cut/roll rates, all with plus efficiency. However he's the more vital rim protector defensively, logging a 5.2% block rate in the Big South games he was available for after an injury plagued season, while also being fully capable of defending 1-5. Nziemi graded out as a 96th percentile rim defender, while Tucker was in the 7th percentile.

Nziemi's strong rim protection was nowhere near enough overall for the Lancers' defense, which finished dead last in FG% at the rim per Synergy data.

Thomas also has a trio of off-guards returning to this year's roster in KJ McClurg, Emanuel Richards, and Jaylen Benard. McClurg actually started the year as one of Longwood's most consistent scorers, buoyed by a massive free throw rate, but injuries eventually ended his season.

Of Thomas' portal additions, VCU wing Fats Billups is probably the most exciting, despite a general lack of actual on-court evidence to suggest it. Billups mainly just filled a reserve 3 and D role at VCU, rarely even attempting a 2PT field goal and just 2 free throw attempts, but his athleticism/ball skill combo at 6'7 (if rarely season in Richmond), could become a key feature in Longwood's offense with a larger role.

Billups' length on the perimeter would also be a potential perfect fit in this aggressive scheme, as he can defend multiple positions and wreak havoc in ball screen coverage:

Jacoi Hutchinson is another A10 import, but saw much heavier usage on the ball and overall at George Washington than Billups did at VCU. Hutchinson followed up a promising freshman season with a brutal sophomore campaign last year, seeing massive efficiency dips across the board. As a frosh, he drilled 40% of his triples on decent volume, but fell to 26% with a similar usage (perhaps the 100th percentile guarded catch and shoot rating his frosh season was a bright red flag, as that fell to 22nd percentile last season, per Synergy data). Nonetheless, Hutchinson has proven to be a plus shooter off the dribble and out of the ball screen at a higher level, so he's going to play a significant role in Longwood's continuity offense.

Hutchinson also allowed just .58 PPP as the primary ball screen defender last season at George Washington, which again, is a key factor in Longwood's general defensive scheme.

Hutchinson tallied a decent assist rate last season, but it was dwarfed by his 26% turnover rate in A10 games. That kind of inefficiency on the ball could very well open the door early for highly touted freshman Jerome Williams, a high scoring combo guard who also averaged 8 assists at Mt. Zion Prep last season. Hutchinson being moved to a more severely limited catch and shoot role beside Williams wouldn't be a bad thing.

Isaiah Kalala is Thomas' other highly touted freshman, but he's strictly an athletic rim threat at 6'9 at this stage in his development, which puts him in a logjam behind Tucker and Nziemi. Charleston/Green Bay transfer Elijah Jones could provide the floor stretching that's seemingly lacking in this roster construction, but after showing flashes of being a stretch 4 at Green Bay two seasons ago, he attempted just 1 triple at Charleston last season.

Longwood's transition from the highly successful Griff Aldrich era is potentially made easier by the continuity Ronnie Thomas provides, but outside of the frontcourt production, it's going to take Hutchinson and Billups transforming into players they rarely showcased in the A10 to maintain the typical Lancer rim rate offensively, as they're not close to 1:1 reproductions of Kyrell Luc/Colby Garland/Michael Christmas. Defensively however, those same players fit nicely into the aggressive denial scheme, which should allow Longwood to maintain their typically high turnover rate, plus a fully healthy Nziemi should at least provide some band-aids for last season's unmitigated disaster of a rim a defense.

South Dakota State and Longwood look to continue successful eras of basketball with direct staff promotions for Bryan Peterson and Ronnie Thomas, while Cleveland State circled back to the Dennis Gates well to hire Rob Summers. All three however face significant challenges to maintain that success immediately despite relatively strong roster continuity at SDSU and Longwood. For SDSU, the issue will be replacing the insane gravity Oscar Cluff brought with him in the paint. For Cleveland State, literal Swiss army knife Dayan Nessah is going to have to be transcendent, while Longwood needs a pair of A10 transfers (and perhaps a highly touted freshman point guard) to develop into players they have yet to consistently show they can be.