New Coaches, New Schemes: Examining the D-2 Leap

Last season’s biggest first year coaching splash was created by Ben McCollum at Drake, who immediately parlayed that success into the Iowa job. McCollum was long regarded as an outstanding basketball mind at the D-2 level, and his jump to D-1 was widely seen as long overdue. McCollum wasn’t the only coach to get plucked from D-2 to D-1 in recent years, as Andy Newman at CSUN has completely turned around the Matador program after a series of retread coaching hires. Mike DeGeorge secured 8 Big West victories in his first season at Cal Poly, which equaled the entirety of Big West wins of the five-season John Smith era that preceded him. This article will examine my best guess at the presumed schemes and styles of 4 coaches (Andy Bronkema at Central Michigan, Tim Bergstraser at Denver, Kevin Carroll at Lipscomb, and Gus Argenal at UC Riverside) who will be taking over D-1 programs after coaching at the D-2 level last season. 

If there’s a coach in this group of 4 who most closely profiles McCollum's story, it’s Andy Bronkema. Bronkema takes over at Central Michigan after coaching Ferris State for the last 13 seasons and being with the program since 2007. He's somehow only 41 years old. Like McCollum, Bronkema has won a national title at that level (2018) and has been in the running for a few of the Michigan directional school vacancies in the past. (Reportedly, Bronkema was all but offered the Detroit Mercy job until Mike Davis swooped in.) However, when it comes to commonalities in terms of style of play, Bronkema and McCollum are quite dissimilar. 

Bronkema’s Ferris State teams routinely played at one of the highest paces in D-2, largely generated by 90th+ percentile press rates defensively annually. Bronkema typically deployed a 3-1-1 or 2-2-1 morphing zone press, and this should be pretty standard fare for the Chips this season:

Bronkema plucked a few key players from Ferris State rival Wayne State, ballhawk Tamario Adley notable among them. Adley will likely be the head of the snake in Bronkema’s pressure schemes as an extremely disruptive ball defender and chaser. 

Offensively, when not running and spreading the floor quickly in transition, Bronkema’s halfcourt schemes were actually fairly post reliant, and his primary post option last season (7-footer Nate Claerbaut), came with Bronkema to CMU. Claerbaut showed some potential to be an effective DHO hub big, as he moves well for a 7-footer. 

Bronkema’s biggest offseason score was wooing Michigan transfer and former Michigan Mr. Basketball Phat Phat Brooks to Mt. Pleasant. Brooks’ D1 sample in Ann Arbor is of course negligible, but as a rim seeking combo guard in charge of the offense, he’ll very likely lead the Chips in scoring, usage, etc this year, especially if CMU plays as fast as projected (which could ultimately be the fastest tempo in the MAC this year). 

Scrolling through Ferris State, it's clear Bronkema's offensive system in the halfcourt is more motion based than PNR heavy, and to wit, the Bulldogs were ~80th+ percentile in D-2 in terms of cut and off ball screen rate (per Synergy data). This is where I have some concerns about CMU's D1 portal additions, namely Rodney Johnson Jr. (Tennessee Tech), who made his hay in isolation last year as a hybrid small ball 4, generally face-driving from the elbow. Certainly a useful player, but a bit of an odd fit in terms of presumed halfcourt scheme.

Fitting that I opened this column referencing Andy Newman's quick success turning around the basketball program at CSUN, as his successor at Cal State San Bernardino is our next subject of examination. Gus Argenal is no stranger to the D-1 coaching scene, having been a high level assistant at several stops, most notably on Eric Musselman's staff at both Nevada and Arkansas (in turn, Musselman's son is on Argenal's first staff at UCR). His first head coaching gig was taking over for Newman at Cal State San Bernardino the past two seasons, and he led the Coyotes to the D-2 Final Four in the last of those two years. Argenal steps into a much better situation than Newman, as former Highlander head coach Mike Magpayo built UCR into a consistent Big West winner. Argenal also has a strong familiarity with the league, having been on staff at league rivals UC Davis and Cal State Fullerton in the past.

Like his predecessor at CSUSB, Argenal's two Coyote teams featured a heavy emphasis on rim production, clocking in at a 96th percentile rim rate in his first season, and 80th percentile last year (per Synergy data). Argenal's halfcourt offense was generally north-south PNR based, with an 82nd percentile overall PNR rate but just a 27th percentile catch and shoot (C&S) rate.

Argenal's primary ball screen operator is likely UMass transfer Marqui Worthy, who heads back to the Inland Empire off two very inefficient seasons across the country. Worthy isn't a shooter by any stretch of the imagination (7-54 from 3 at UMass), and almost all of his offense comes via dribble penetration, where he was an average rim finisher with a significantly higher turnover rate than assist rate- but there will certainly be opportunity for Worthy in this downhill oriented, Muss Bus-inspired offense.

How Worthy pairs with Argenal's best pure scorer from last year's CSUSB team, Andrew Henderson, will be a key development for the Highlanders' season. Henderson is a tough shot maker who works better creating for himself off the dribble, similar to Worthy, but he at least provides some jump shot making ability.

"Positionless" basketball, a key tenet of Muss Bus basketball, will also surely feature heavily in Argenal's offense. Argenal took a flier on a few high upside 3/4 hybrids that didn't really pan out at previous stops, and have never really shown the ball skills generally associated with the Musselman style long athlete. Chief among these is Osiris Grady, who can be a high end athlete and finisher in the PNR game, but didn't contribute much on the glass or defensively at Utah Valley in two seasons.

Coastal Carolina transfer Denzel Hines is more or less the same player as Grady, but a much better rebounder, with a particularly high motor on the offensive glass- but again, very little on tape regarding versatility, ball skills, and shooting ability.

Defensively this team is almost assuredly a 1-4 switch with a drop base anchored by Montana State transfer BJ Kolly, whose advanced stat data defensively and on the glass is...not great. But he does move his feet relatively well for his size.

Carroll is a bit of an exception on this list, as he's more of a program continuity pick as head coach at Lipscomb after having spent 5 years on Lennie Acuff's bench, but he did spend the last 2 seasons coaching Trevecca Nazarene at the D-2 level. There should be little deviation in Carroll's offensive system compared to Acuff's, as his offenses at Trevecca were similarly Euro/Princeton motion based with big man hub passing as an integral factor. Carroll's Trevecca offense last year produced a 99th percentile C&S rate and an 83rd percentile rim rate, both hallmarks of a typical Lipscomb offense.

The key hub in Lipscomb's chin and point series high-post facilitation will be Charlie Williams, who started to develop into the prototypical skilled Lipscomb big late last season. Williams tallied a 20% assist rate in ASUN play, and we're going to see a lot of this out of the Bisons in what should be a breakout season for the multifaceted big man.

The question is who will be taking all of these open catch and shoots created by the Lipscomb motion offensive system? Mateo Esmeraldo followed Carroll from Trevecca, but he's far more of an on-ball alpha who can get the Bisons into late ball screen flow actions (and is actually a far superior rim finisher than shooter, despite his stature).

Miles White is the leading returning C&S option for the Bisons, and he's likely due for a significant scoring jump, especially considering he was far more efficient on guarded C&S (1.15 PPP) compared to unguarded (.87 PPP), per Synergy data. Here's White popping a contested C&S out of some typical Lipscomb halfcourt flow and inside-out with a skilled post passer:

Defensively, Acuff wasn't tentative in busting out a zone against more athletic teams in the ASUN last year, and Carroll actually zoned significantly more at Trevecca last season, typically a morphing 1-3-1.

Overall, there's likely to be little tangible difference in systems/schemes on either end despite Carroll's two year D-2 head coaching experience.

While no one on this list is likely to achieve anything close to the level of success Ben McCollum enjoyed last year, Tim Bergstraser is the most similar in terms of style of play, particularly offensively.

Bergstraser comes to Denver from Minnesota State-Moorhead after the Pios' seemingly acrimonious split with Jeff Wulbrun. At MSUM, Bergstraser employed one of the highest PNR rates in D-2, with the Dragons logging a 97th percentile overall rate, with a 90th percentile efficiency. The key cog in that efficient PNR offense was Carson Johnson, who followed Bergstraser to Denver.

Watching Johnson's tape, it's hard not to read a smaller but more explosive Bennett Stirtz, as he controlled every aspect of the MSUM offense with his ball screen manipulation and dribble, with Bergstraser accordingly designing the offense around him in the halfcourt. MSUM actually owned the lowest transition rate in the entirety of D-2 basketball, and you can see the Dragons pull up on the break in order to set up the Johnson ball screen operation, which is very McCollum/Stirtz-coded. This will also be an interesting style of play in the Summit, which is typically a tempo haven, outside of Kansas City. You'll have to forgive me for the clip overload here, but I can't get enough of this kid (who was just a freshman last year). He could rapidly become a household name in mid-major circles:

Could have pulled a few dozen clips in isolation, but he's an absolute world-beater off the dribble:

To top it off, Johnson can be used off the ball and in motion, as he was a lethal shooter on volume at 43% from 3, scoring 1.31 PPP on spot ups and 1.21 PPP on guarded C&S.

Besides being PNR heavy, Bergstraser's offense runs through a TON of DHO triggers into zoom, flares, etc to punish overplay and denial defenses (which there aren't actually many in the Summit). Like Johnson, small ball 4 man Logan Kinsey followed Bergstraser to Denver, and he was involved heavily in that 99th percentile DHO usage as a factotum player who was efficient as a shooter (1.2 PPP guarded C&S per Synergy), roller (1.35 PPP), and in the post (1.06 PPP). He's an essential bridge piece in this offensive system:

Bergstraser's biggest D-1 portal grab was probably Julius Rollins out of Western Illinois. Rollins put up a few eye-popping raw total stat lines at WIU last year as an athletic 4 man, but the advanced stats aren't pretty (a yikes -2.31 overall BPR per EvanMiya), and his rebounding rates at both Kent State and WIU aren't particularly impressive given his length and athleticism. That said, if you're Bergstraser and a program like Denver, this is why you roll the dice with someone that has this type of ability at 6'7":

Denver's lone holdover from the Wulbrun era is Josh Lee, a capable shooter and dribble creator who can pair fairly well with Johnson in the backcourt and get his own shot when needed. He also led the Pios in steal rate last year.

Speaking of defense, Bergstraser's MSUM teams were as straight man to man (typically very little switching and mostly drop coverage) as it gets, playing just 3 total zone possessions and 22 press possessions last season (per Synergy data). Bergstraser deployed drop coverage at a high rate in ball MSUM's ball screen defense, with a 99th percentile ball screen operator rate allowed and the second lowest C&S rate allowed in all of D-2 basketball- two analytical hallmarks of primary drop coverage.

The 5 man rotation in this scheme is likely going to be a major issue for Bergstraser in his first season. JUCO import Didier Maleng offers the best defensive outlook with his 6'9 athletic frame (which also represents the tallest overall height on the team), but he's a void offensively. Gabe Oldham, another JUCO import out of Tucson, is the Maleng's polar opposite as a muscular 6'8 4/5 who offers far more refinement offensively (he'll feast as a roller with Johnson) but isn't nearly as mobile or athletic defensively.

Four new D-1 coaches from the D-2 ranks, and four fairly distinct styles being imported. Bronkema owns the best coaching pedigree as he makes the leap, and will deploy a more motion based offense when not scoring in transition off intense pressure. Argenal's background and roster construction suggests a more freedom based, positionless brand of basketball. Carroll meanwhile is a continuity hire that should run similar gorgeous hub based motion at Lipscomb, and Bergstraser at Denver is a PNR guru with one of the most under the radar elite ball screen operators in his arsenal that can totally control the game.