Another week of college basketball is nearing its end and we have more data to support our preconceived preseason opinions. Feast week is near, which means there will be enough college basketball for everyone, regardless of your preference of mid-major or power conferences. Some HBCU’s announced themselves as contenders in their respective conferences early on, but sustaining that level is what separates the great from the good.
The HBCU’s had a solid week two and as the buy games come to an end, we see just how good some of these schools are. Even in buy games, some teams have showcased their ability to stand eye to eye with power schools. Look no further than a double overtime thriller between Southern and Washington, or Bethune Cookman battling a top 100 team like Dayton on the road.
Nine HBCU’s improved their overall rating from week one into week two via KenPom. Of the remaining twelve teams, six either stayed the same or moved down no more than five spots. This will be a big next few weeks for teams like Norfolk State and Jackson State, who were picked to finish high in their respective conferences and have been underwhelming thus far. Conference play is around the corner and building healthy habits and continuity will be huge during week two.
Week Two Team Surge
Southern
The reigning SWAC regular season champions being in this section despite their lofty preseason expectations means they are ahead of schedule. After the Arkansas loss to begin the season, the Jags have been impressive from top to bottom. The 18-point loss to Marquette is a bit misleading as they were highly competitive early on before a late fury by the Golden Eagles. They followed those two losses up winning by a combined 129 points in their two home games.
Southern took the cross-country trip to Washington and gave the Huskies all they could handle. They led by five with under a minute left, but poor free throw shooting cost them a huge win. Although moral victories are subjective, this performance is something the Jags can build upon going forward. Before conference play begins, seven of the eight remaining non-conference games are on the road including three against power conference teams.
Staying connected and building winning habits from this stretch will ultimately help the Jags when conference play begins. Five of the remaining eight non-conference games project the Jags to have 35+ percent win probability, so despite the tough stretch, compiling some wins is not farfetched. The rating for Southern increased twelve spots off of the 1-1 week and with some upset wins on the road, they could climb even further next week.
Kevin Johnson enters year three with momentum and expectations. He’s increased the Southern win total each year and is coming off the first 20-win season since 2016 under Roman Banks. The back-to-back winning seasons is also the first since 2015 and 2016, which is the last time the Jags went to the NCAA Tournament. Led by Michael Jacobs, who we highlighted last week, the Jags are one of the deepest teams in the SWAC. They also have a top-150 defense to match their much-improved offense.
Schematically, Johnson has increased the tempo drastically. In his first two seasons, the tempo was inside the top 185, but so far, they are inside the top 50. This has increased their offensive efficiency while continuing to keep the same defensive mindset. We would love to see more three-point attempts with how well (38%) they shoot it, but they rely more on paint touches and getting to the free throw line. If they can continue this balance, they could be in line for another 20-win season and a repeat regular season title.
Buy Low Team for Week Three
Texas Southern
Even after a 0-2 week, the rating for the Tigers only dropped a few points. Road games at Gonzaga and Texas A&M are as tough of a two-game stretch as anyone has played. They followed that up with a heartbreaking overtime loss to Samford before heading back on the road and losing to Texas State. The good news is that conference season begins soon, and the upcoming schedule provides more of a litmus test of what the Tigers ceiling is.
There are a few aspects to why buying low on Texas Southern is a good portfolio addition. As discussed earlier, the schedule lightens up drastically, with four of their next seven games at home. Under Johnny Jones, the Tigers have won over 70% of their home games including going 9-3 last season.
From a metric standpoint, when playing high octane offenses like the two they faced, the overall numbers are not going to be good. One thing that has been consistent for Texas Southern is their defense and rebounding. They have been in the top three in most key metrics in SWAC play throughout the Jones tenure and right now the numbers do not show it. As the competition gets back to their level, the defense and rebounding will be focal points to why this team turns things around.
Scheduling a grueling non-conference has paid off for the Tigers. They have been to three NCAA Tournaments in seven years under Jones and reached the SWAC Championship in two other years. A winning culture is within this program and starting 0-4 should not deter any doubt about the team or staff. When you win 10+ conference games in six of your seven seasons, you are doing something right. The players are veterans and understand what it takes to win at a high level, so as the season progresses, their true identity will be revealed.
Team To Watch Week Three
Howard
The Bison were picked 2nd in the MEAC Preseason Poll and while the slow start is not ideal, they are a few possessions away from being 4-1. Coach Blakeney brought in numerous transfers and they are still learning how to play in his scheme and understand his core principles. When you lose the MEAC Freshman and Player of the Year along with two other double-digit scorers, replacing that production with new pieces is going to take time.
Last year Bryce Harris was named pre-season Player of the Year, but due to a lower body injury, his season ended in November. Now that he is back, we are seeing why he was picked as the player of the year in 2024-2025. The continuity continuing to grow is the most important part of the remaining non-conference. By the time MEAC play begins in January, the Bison should look vastly different with what they have been through up to that point.
Since Blakeney took over in 2020, the tempo has been fast. Coming of his second fastest tempo season, the offensive philosophy has shifted. Currently, the Bison are ranked 257th in adjusted tempo which is easily the slowest pace in the Blakeney tenure. The biggest question is why the sudden change and is it permanent or an experimental phase in the non-conference?
Through five games, the defense has improved, but the offense is outside the top 300 from an efficiency standpoint. Over the last few seasons, that flipped and the offense did the heavy lifting. The three-point shooting is still a weapon, but they are taking the least amount of any Blakeney team. Finding some balance on both sides of the ball will be pivotal as the Bison get ready for a tough road ahead.
Over the next few weeks, the Bisons togetherness will be tested. Eight of the next twelve games will be on the road or in a neutral setting. The last two will be the start of conference play, but putting together some momentum would be beneficial for the new players. There will be only one power four opponent (Duke) in that stretch and excluding them, the Bison project to have a 40+ percent win probability in six of the remaining eleven games. Stacking together some wins in that stretch sets them up to finish strong with eight of their final twelve being inside Burr Arena.
Players of the Week
Bryce Harris, Guard, Howard
Despite the 2-3 start, Bryce Harris is on a mission to get back to his 2023 form. After an injury limited him to just seven games, Harris is coming off a week where he averaged 25 points and 10.5 rebounds on 56/44/85 shooting splits. When you factor in being at the top of the scouting report and not having played a game since last year due to injury, the start Harris is off to is incredible.
Bryce is one of three players who average at least 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists (thanks, Trilly), but also gets it done on the defensive end. He averages 2.6 STOCKS (steals + blocks) and consistently defends the best player on the opposing team. In the non-conference it is a little tougher on him being at his size guarding forwards but once MEAC play begins, it will unlock a different level to his versatility that raises the team’s defensive ceiling.
Going forward, we should see Bryce in more of a playmaking role to get guys going earlier. His ability to score at every level will be there, but uplifting his teammates is the next step to get the Bison where they want to be. His scoring is fluid and can come at any point in the game, so helping his teammates get in an early a rhythm should ease some pressure from him and allow the Bison to blossom in conference play.
Lewis Walker, Wing, North Carolina A&T
The other half of the Walker duo for the Aggies had a huge week as they finished 2-0. Lewis returned to his home state after a redshirt season with UMass and has been thriving in the Monte Ross system. During this week, Walker averaged 24.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on 54% shooting. He made his first career start on the road against former MEAC foe Morgan State and delivered a monster 24-point outing.
Walker also gets it done on the defensive end, totaling five steals during this week. His versatility allows A&T to play advantageous lineups that are tough to handle in space for opposing teams. Often times he is getting the second or third best defender because of his bench role – which is to the Aggies advantage with his ability to attack and score at all three levels at such an efficient and effective way.
Finding a two-way player at the mid-major level is a tough task, especially one that is efficient. Walker has fit the description thus far with how well he’s played. The usage rate is in the 90th percentile for his position, along with his points per 40 minutes. As a bench player with those types of numbers, the sky is the limit for Lewis as he continues to trend up. The Aggies are off to their best four game start since 2018, and a lot of that success has come to the emergence of Lewis Walker.
Freshman Spotlight
Antonio Munoz, Forward, Grambling State
After losing around 90% of their production and a head coach, the Tigers needed a player to step up and be the hub for their offense. A complete roster overhaul with eleven new players, it is a freshman who is leading the way thus far. Antonio Munoz is a three-star wing from Chicago who played for the prestigious Whitney Young High School. After holding offers from California and several in state schools – Munoz chose the HBCU route and is thriving in his role.
Munoz is leading the team in scoring with 13.6 per game and is coming of a week where he scored a career high 21 points on the road against San Diego. He has been efficient in his scoring, especially in the mid-range area where around 25% of his shots come from. Munoz is a throwback type of wing that does not take many threes, but relies on getting to the rim as well the mid-range area.
He struggled against Southern Miss, but showed resiliency in the road outing against San Diego. As a freshman, he has the highest usage rate (30.9%) on the team which shows the trust the staff has in him to constantly have the ball in his hands. Along with the offensive production, Munoz is a good on ball defender that can guard multiple positions. With how he has performed thus far, the SWAC defenses are in trouble if he continues this trajectory.
