Week One SWAC Conference Round-Up
The SWAC conference has lived at the bottom of conference rankings on a yearly basis. Since KenPom started in 1997, they have only finished inside the top 30 once during that span. After one week of action, they are ranked 29th with some of their top teams having performed well against quality competition. The talent level drastically improved in the conference and despite the constant roster turnover, most coaching staffs remain in good shape, which helps when navigating through a tougher non-conference.
Due to that type of scheduling, five teams will not play a home game until December. Alcorn St will play half of their games before returning for their first home game on January 17th. The remaining schools have a game, maybe two this week before going back on the road for a lengthy stretch of games. This directly brings down the conference rating and analytical metrics of teams prior to conference play.
Four teams have improved their KenPom ranking in this short sample size despite being on the road. The final scores do not look appealing, but several teams have stood firm for at least a half when battling power conference teams. The biggest mover (288 to 263) is Alabama State after going into UAB and getting a win. Southern barely trailed Marquette (6 points) and Texas A&M (5 points) in their respective first halves, while Alcorn State led at Portland before imploding in the second half.
The recurring answer when coaches talk about their challenging schedules is they just want to be healthy for conference play. Extensive travel and lack of high-level depth put a heavy workload on the starters. A noticeable change with certain SWAC teams is their willingness to play deeper in their bench earlier than usual. In prior years, the starters would still be on the floor during a blowout – fast forward to this year and we are seeing a shift to the bench earlier in games to preserve the best players.
Bethune Cookman’s Conference to Lose?
Reggie Theus is coming off back-to-back 17-win seasons which serves as the best two-year stretch since 2011 and 2012 when they totaled 39 wins as a member of the MEAC. Entering his fifth season, Theus has outperformed his KenPom rating in three of the prior four years - an impressive milestone even with never having an offense finish inside the top 300.
The Wildcats win games with defense, improving their efficiency drastically during the Theus era. Keeping the defense in a similar position while gradually improving offensively could have the Wildcats finish with their highest KenPom rating since 2000 when they finished 230. The addition of former highly touted recruit Arterio Morris and Arkansas Pine Bluff transfer Doctor Bradley instantly raises that offensive ceiling and it was on full display in their opener.
Opening the year at Auburn would not seem ideal for any SWAC team, but the Wildcats showed why this is a new and improved team. Not only did they have the Tigers on the ropes, but they outplayed them for 95% of the game. Finishing with four players in double figures and holding Auburn to 26% from three allowed the Wildcats with ample opportunity to win but the depth of Auburn outlasted them in overtime.
Despite the loss, the Wildcats were impressive, even without their second-best player (Doctor Bradley) who was out. That result catapulted Bethune to 192 before getting dismantled by Miami on the road. A game in which it was evident they gave everything a few nights prior and could not get back to that level.
After finishing the week 1-2, the preseason favorite showcased why they are just that. The Miami result did not help, but despite it, they improved their preseason rating 15 spots. Only Southern is higher but the upside of Bethune far exceeds what Southern can put on the floor. Once Bradley is back, he adds more versatility on both sides of the ball which makes the Wildcats one of the scariest teams in the SWAC. With five of their first seven SWAC games being at home, they are in position to win double digit SWAC games for the third straight year.
New Head Coach Thriving
Another nice jump in KenPom comes from the new look Grambling State Tigers. They are up 12 spots after finishing the week 2-1 before a big home game against Southern Miss and then a West Coast trip the following week. New head coach Patrick Crarey II is only in his second-year coaching, but during his short stop in Tallahassee, he led the Rattlers to their most conference wins since 2022. Their 14 overall wins were the most wins since 2014 when the Rattlers were still in the MEAC.
Crarey II and staff are highly analytically driven while also trusting in their depth. Eight or more players saw significant minutes in all three games last week, finding success in keeping their best players rested for clutch time. Winning on the road at Howard after a 40-point loss to Iowa State shows the level of focus and buy-in that Crarey II has in the players in a short time frame.
When rostering 11 new players who come from various levels, it generally takes time to get your core principles instilled in the team. The Southern Miss game at home is huge moving forward because it will be their last home game until December 30th. Being on the road that long helps build camaraderie that will be tested, especially in tough environments across the country.
Only one power school (Ohio State) is on the schedule before conference play. Despite being on the road for an extended period of time, the Tigers are projected to be competitive in most, if not all of these non-conference games. The reward (outside of winning) for playing on the road for that stretch is beginning conference play with seven of the first eleven being in Hobdy Assembly Center. Watch out for the Tigers under this new staff if they can win some of those early road games, this could be a sleeper in the SWAC.
Week One Standouts
Michael Jacobs, Guard, Southern
Following his All-SWAC first team honors in 2024, Jacobs was once again selected to the first team via SWAC Media Preseason Poll. He wasted no time proving why he is not only a first team player, but someone who can potentially win Player of the Year. Against two teams (Arkansas & Marquette) who likely will be inside the top 75 in defensive efficiency – Jacobs averaged 21 points on 48% from the field and totaled 28 free throw attempts.
Scoring was not the only way Jacobs impacted the game. He snagged ten rebounds at Marquette and dished out four assists against Arkansas. Both opposing defenses were equally tough, but different with their personnel and approach. Throughout both matchups, Jacobs was able to find multiple avenues to score. His scoring output helped the Jaguars to single-digit deficits in both games before hitting a wall in the second half.
Three of the next five games are winnable and against defenses outside the top 200. Do not expect Jacobs to slow down as he is on a path to being the first Jaguars player to win Player of the Year since Adarrial Smylie won in 1999-2000.
Tal’Reon Joseph, Guard, Prairie View A&M
The well-traveled Joseph boomerangs back to the SWAC after a year with UTSA where he was solid (8.8 points per game) in his 23.6 minutes per game. He returns on a mission after being snubbed from an All-SWAC team in 2023-2024 despite averaging 20.5 points. The Pirates are off to their best start since 2023, and Joseph is the driving force behind their early success.
Scheduling for the Pirates has been poor best early on, but Joseph is taking full advantage. He is averaging 19.3 points despite shooting 32.3% from the three-point line. The aggression level is high which helps him get to the line more, on top of spraying out to open teammates. The peskiness on defense remains, as he continues to extend his streak of years averaging at least one steal.
The preseason poll had Prairie View A&M near the bottom (9th), but with a player like Tai’Reon Joseph, they will be tough to play in SWAC play. Winning in this conference at a high level, as Joseph did, should motivate his teammates and get their best effort on a nightly basis. After all, all they need to do is keep it close, and Tai’Reon will likely close the deal when the time comes.
Michael James, Guard, Mississippi Valley State
There has not been a ton of positives lately for the Delta Devils from a winning perspective, but Michael James has been awesome for them thus far. The 6’1 JUCO transfer averaged 24.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2 steals during a 1-2 week for Mississippi Valley State. James showcased his ability to score at every level and consistently get to the free-throw line.
Head coach George Ivory put an emphasis on speeding up the offense and it has benefited James at a high level. With his speed and downhill ability, playing in space makes him difficult to defend. The Delta Devils did not have a player on their roster average double digits last year, but with how James is trending, that will certainly change. After a successful scoring week, James and the Delta Devils go to Hawaii for a multi-team event. If defenses are not careful, James could have a monster week on the island.
Underrated Team to Monitor
Alabama A&M
The Bulldogs finished the week 1-1 with a loss to Indiana on Wednesday. Their KenPom rating dropped five points but was to be expected after a 47-point loss. In the next few weeks, they will have ample opportunity to improve their rating, especially playing five of the next eight at home. Only two power conference teams are on the upcoming schedule, so unlike other SWAC teams, the Hornets have a chance to go into conference play with some momentum and most importantly, some wins.
New head coach Donte Jackson is a consistent winner culture builder. Through eight years at Grambling State, he outperformed his KenPom rating in six and went to an NCAA Tournament in 2023. Only three times did Grambling State not total double-digit SWAC wins, while finishing under .500 only twice in his tenure. Having done this in a conference for that length of time, the transition from Grambling, LA to Normal, AL should be seamless.
The roster is new to Alabama A&M but not to Jackson, who brought over seven players from Grambling State which includes All-SWAC 1st team member Kintavious Dozier. Continuity is big when taking a new job and Jackson has kept his core together, which will ultimately help when conference play begins.
The defense is ahead of the offense right now, but to reach its full potential, the offense needs to take a step. The talent level, versatility, and veteran presence are all there, it is just about getting them to put the ball in the basket consistently. With their schedule, it allows them to not be dominated by power schools but put in situations they will likely be in during conference play.
Coach Jackson has proven on a yearly basis that he can win. SWAC Preseason Poll had the Bulldogs finishing 6th, but this roster and staff will fight for one of the top three spots. The offense producing anything with a pulse should help, and that is something we should see improve throughout non-conference into SWAC play. If the offense sneaks into the top 5 in the SWAC, look out for the Bulldogs to bite their way into the top of the standings.
Week One MEAC Conference Roundup
The MEAC is a conference where teams play at extreme pace and rely on good guard play to win. Last year they led all conferences in tempo but also were last in offensive turnover% and mostly outside the top 250 in efficiency. This conference typically is top-heavy but last year we witnessed more competitiveness from the middle of the league.
A conference losing all 15 players who made the all-conference team is something that rarely happens but coming into this year, the MEAC will return zero. With change comes uncertainty, which should lead to a more wide-open conference race. Home court advantage has been watered down over the last few years but in the MEAC it matters. Per KenPom, the conference finished with a 67% home win percentage which ranked 2nd in the country.
Hampton and North Carolina A&T are former members of the MEAC but now reside in the CAA. The Pirates were picked to finish 5th in the CAA while NC A&T was picked last. When grouping all HBCU’s together, Hampton was the second highest rated preseason team behind Southern in the SWAC, per KenPom. High praise for a team in a top 15 conference that brought in six transfers who have little to no continuity.
Both teams will have the honor of playing each other in San Francisco during NBA All-Star weekend. Coaching staffs on both sides are extremely grateful and excited for the opportunity to showcase what CAA and HBCU basketball has to offer on one of the biggest stages.
During the first week, it is always hard to gauge the HBCU’s due to their tough scheduling but in week two, we should get better data points on just how good some of these teams are. There will be cross conference matchups within the next few weeks, and those types of games are big for recruiting and bragging rights, depending on the matchup.
First Week Team Surges
University of Maryland Eastern Shore
After a tough year one under Cleo Hill, the Hawks are up 10 spots in KenPom despite being 1-3. Opening with three power conference teams from three different leagues and being competitive in two of those are likely the cause for the early jump. The Hawks were up one at Georgia Tech with around a minute to play and just couldn’t finish the deal in overtime. Typically, that is what we see from most HBCU teams who do not have the requisite quality depth of power conference schools.
The trip to Georgia went somewhat how you would expect after battling with Georgia Tech for 40+ minutes. After a few days off, a trip to Pinnacle Bank to battle Nebraska went a lot better. Trailing big in the first half (32-16), the Hawks battled back to make the second half competitive and Hill, Jr. was pleased with the effort the team showed.
If you are investing in teams to be on the rise in the MEAC, the Hawks are the perfect team. Cleo Hill, Jr. is a winner and has won everywhere from Shaw University to Winston Salem State and even during his time as a player at North Carolina Central. Last year was not indicative of what Hill, Jr. is about. He was hired late in the process and could not properly recruit or get a staff together at the level he would have liked.
With a full year behind him and getting some players that he recruited as well as installing his identity and culture, the winning is not far behind. It is already evident in just four games and how connected the group is on the floor. Starting conference play on a ten-game losing streak is unlikely to happen again, along with losing eight of the fourteen conference games by double digits. In the words of the great Jon Rothstein, BUY STOCK NOW.
Morgan State
As of today, there were two MEAC teams that improved their KenPom rating. Morgan State jumped four spots after a 1-2 week. A narrow loss to UMBC, where they led by six with under two minutes left, prevented an even bigger jump. Prior to that, the Bears went into Capital One Arena and played Georgetown tough. Trailing by eight at the half before being a little overwhelmed by the pressure and consistent attack of the Hoyas.
Kevin Broadus has been consistent year over year in his tenure. Despite not finishing with a winning record in five of his six years, he averages seven conference wins. In fact, the Bears have finished with exactly seven conference wins in five straight years. 2013 was the last overall winning season for the Bear and if that is going to change, they must be more consistent on both sides of the ball.
So far, the Bears have been playing at the same pace, but protecting the ball better. That has been a reoccurring issue under Broadus, but going to more of a three-guard lineup with multiple ball handlers has helped thus far. Shooting has also been inconsistent under Broadus, but right now they are above 40% and top 30 in three-point defense. Last year opponents shot 37% from deep against the Bears, so the personnel and buy-in is evident in the early number improvements.
Road woes hit the Bears hard, but when they are inside Hill Field House, they are tough to beat. Of the seven conference losses, only two were suffered at home. A little more consistency on the road and not losing games you are not supposed to; the Bears could claw their way to 17-19 wins.
Underrated Team to Watch
North Carolina A&T
After four winning seasons from 2020 to 2022 under Will Jones, the Aggies have struggled to get things back on track. Since Jones departure, the Aggies are 27-89 and preseason projections do not see that changing in year three under Monte Ross. They were picked last in the CAA Preseason Media Poll and KenPom ranked them as a bottom-15 team in the country.
During the offseason, Monte Ross and staff put an emphasis on high character players who can impact winning. The roster is blended with several returning pieces and a bevy of transfers who fit the system. Two games into the season and it is easy to see the improvement from last year. Pace is up and the offense is more fluid, which forces defenses to defend multiple actions and not just isolation.
The biggest leap by any HBCU Is the Aggies 21 spot improvement per KenPom. Sitting at 1-1 with an impressive win over a top three MEAC team in South Carolina State, the next week is critical for the Aggies progression. Their non-conference is not as rigorous as other HBCU’s, which sets up well for a few victories over some quality mid-major teams.
Of the nine games before conference play, only three would have less than a 40%-win probability, all being road games at UNCG, Davidson and Charlotte. They will only leave the state of North Carolina once during that span, setting the Aggies up to have one of their better non-conferences in quite some time. The Aggies are certainly a team to keep an eye on over the next week and into CAA play.
Players to Watch in Week 2
Lureon ‘Lo’ Walker - Guard, North Carolina A&T
One of the transfers that was a priority for the Aggies is Lo Walker. The Mount Olive transfer arrives in Greensboro after a stellar season where he averaged just under 18 points on around 50% shooting. Last year we saw how prolific the Aggie guards were in the Monte Ross system. Walker can be that and more for an offense that lost a ton of production. The pace and space they play with blend well with how Walker loves to get out in transition and score.
Through two games, Walker has scored 20+ points on 55% from the field and over 50% from deep. Against SEC athletes, he got to his spot whenever he wanted and poured in 22 points on 9/16 shooting. As the season progresses, he will be higher on opposing teams scouting report and how well he adjusts will determine how successful the Aggies are this year. The Aggies did not have a player on the All-CAA Preseason team but by the end of the year, Lo Walker should find himself in conversations for a spot on the first team.
Gage Lattimore - Guard, North Carolina Central
One of the most underrated transfers at the HBCU level is Gage Lattimore. Coming in from D-II Seton Hill where the numbers (10.6 points) will not blow you away, but his impact was felt nightly. The Eagles lost their top three scorers and over 55 points per game, so more is needed from Lattimore to help the Eagles win. Guard play is critical in the LeVelle Moton system and Gage is proving why he deserves to have the keys to that system to help the Eagles get back to their winning ways.
Beginning your tenure as an Eagle with back-to-back 20-point games puts you in high regard right away, especially with those performances coming on the road against ACC opponents. Gage was able to score at every level and despite being guarded by bigger guards, found himself on the free throw line on a consistent basis.
After coming down to earth a bit with 13 points at Appalachian State, he exploded for 38 in his home debut against Bluefield State. The Eagles need a bounce back year and typically Moton teams respond after a down year. Having a guard like Lattimore will be beneficial once MEAC play begins, and he is must watch going forward.
Game of the Weekend
Bethune Cookman @ Dayton
There will not be a tougher place to play than The Jungle for the Wildcats. When you go in there shorthanded and compete without one of your top players, no upcoming road environment is too big. That will be put to the test on Saturday with a visit to Dayton Arena. The Flyers are picked to finish high in the A-10 and have loads of talent on their roster. After an easy win against Canisus, they struggled to put away UMBC and allowed five double digit scorers.
Watching both teams play this week, there are distinct advantages for each side, but in vastly different areas. Dayton has struggled defending the three (351st rank) which is a strength of the Panthers thus far, ranking inside the top 130 in three-point%. How the Panthers stand up against the Dayton pressure will be a big determining factor in how this game goes. There are no reports yet on Doctor Bradley making his debut, but this would be a perfect matchup for him with his attacking ability along with the defensive prowess he has.
The Flyers are coming off playing in-state big brother Cincinnati on the road and got down too big too early. It is key to not take the Panthers lightly. Rim protection and defending the paint is something the Panthers do not have the personnel to match up with the Flyers. We should see a heavy dose of high pick and rolls to get the guards downhill and once the paint is packed, the wings must knock down shots. So far, that has not been the case, with their 27.9% three-point%.
Saturdays in college basketball are always filled with great matchups in the non-conference, and this is an under the radar game to tune into at 7:30 PM EST on ESPN+.
