The talent across college basketball is as good as it has ever been. Recruiting does not have the same value as the pre-NIL and transfer portal era. More teams are looking overseas as well as in the portal to accumulate more proven commodities. Unless you are ranked in the top 3-5% of your recruiting class, it is hard to carve out a role for a power conference program.
In the current landscape of college basketball, the impact of incoming freshmen is felt more at the mid-major level. Look no further than some of the mid-major rosters that are filled with former top recruits who transferred down after not playing at their respective power level school. At this level they can showcase their talent while also gaining valuable experience during the process.
Each year there are more highly touted freshmen who choose to start at the mid-major level. This year is no different as there is a bevy of talented incoming freshmen throughout the mid-major conferences. Below are some names to watch before the 2025-2026 season kicks off.
Larry Johnson - Guard, McNeese State
Scouting Report
After essentially a redshirt season at Creighton where he suffered a knee injury and exited the program without playing, Johnson is ready to showcase why he was so highly touted and likely will provide immediate impact. The former four-star recruit decided to take a step down despite offers from numerous power conference teams. All signs point to Johnson Jr being healthy and ready to explode on the stage in Lake Charles.
Explosive and athleticism are the two adjectives that best describe Johnson’s game. In transition he is a freight train that can finish through contact at a high level. With his size and speed, it presents an immediate mismatch for opposing defenders. Dating back to his high school season for Rolling Loud of Overtime Elite, he poured in 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game.
He stuffs the stat sheet against quality competition and the physicality at the college level will not bother him. Rebounding at the guard spot is an underrated skill and Johnson could be one of the best rebounding freshmen guards. Defensively is where he separates himself from other freshmen. He puts consistent ball pressure on guards and has the size to switch on big men. That type of versatility with his athleticism makes him a two-way nightmare for opponents.
Early on in his playing career, Johnson relied solely on his athleticism, and it lowered his floor as a prospect. As he progressed, so did his game as he added more shot creation and showed flashes of knocking down an occasional jump shot. The motor for Johnson always runs high and you never have to question the effort on either side of the ball.
The outside shooting will need to improve as he goes through this season. Once the scouting report gets increased, teams will look to take away driving lanes and force him to shoot. How he adjusts to that will be pivotal in his development and success during his freshman campaign. Once he is in conference play, Southland teams will not have the athletes to compete with McNeese. Providing the team with some versatility on both ends and energy will keep Johnson on the floor and it will be hard to not play him big minutes.
First Year Fit & Expectations
McNeese has seen tremendous success under Will Wade and despite his departure, the talent continues to roll in. Along with Johnson, the Cowboys roster two other highly touted four-star recruits. Those acquisitions make them the most talented team in the conference and among the top in mid-major ranks. The Cowboys ranked outside the top 250 in tempo, but with this roster of athletes, Armstrong should look to get out and run more.
There is a huge roster and staff turnover in Lake Charles which gives players a fair shot to make a first impression on the staff. The Cowboys bring in eight new players, half coming down from power conference leagues. Larry is the only freshman among the group, but do not expect him to get buried on the bench. Armstrong likely will play three guard lineups and there is a chance Armstrongs defense and athleticism will keep him on the floor.
Javohn Garcia and DJ Richards are returning in the backcourt and will ultimately start but the Cowboys utilized their bench at a top 100 level. Despite the coaching change, Armstrong comes from a coaching tree that put emphasis on playing multiple players, including three guard lineups. This will be his first head coaching job at the college level, but his Link Academy teams had success on the national level with strong guard play.
With athletes all over the court, the tempo must increase, which fits right into the style of play Larry thrives in. Not being ball dominant or needing to have plays run for him is a big advantage he has. The ability to play with any lineup put on the floor is his advantage and with his defensive versatility, it is going to be tough to not play Larry massive minutes.
In a conference that has been dominated by McNeese in the last few years, Larry will have the opportunity to play on big stages and contribute to a Cowboy team looking for back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances. He is not the type of player that is going to score 20+ points per game but his impact on both ends will be the difference maker and why he will be vying for newcomer and freshman of the year in the Southland.
Josh Lewis - Wing, Louisiana
Scouting Report
Josh Lewis had quite the story prior to being one of the highest rated recruits in Louisiana history. Originally committed to South Florida but the tragic death of Amir Abdur Rahim opened his recruitment back up. Shortly after, he committed to Iowa, only to find out the Hawkeyes were firing Fran McCaffery. Those changes led him to signing with Louisiana and fans should be elated for what he brings to the team.
Much like any other talented player, Lewis was able to show more on the AAU side than he was in high school. It was not to say that he struggled, because he didn’t; but on the AAU circuit, he is able to play with more pace and space. High school teams often ran a lot of zone or even some box-and one coverage on Lewis. Despite that, he was still able to put up good numbers in all statistical categories.
The scoring and fluidity that he plays with is easy to marvel at. Quite frankly, it is hard to not marvel at it, but Lewis is an underrated passer and rebounder. Early on, he struggled with being able to make defenses pay while being doubled. As he saw more of it, he adapted and utilized his teammates at a higher level.
Averaging nearly 8.5 rebounds per game is nothing to look down on. Rebounding numbers can sometimes be misleading but not with Lewis. He showed relentless effort in crashing the glass and used his length to get putback dunks or give his team an additional possession. These offensive traits mixed with his ability to defend multiple positions give Louisiana a special wing who has the potential to have a massive freshman year.
First Year Fit & Expectations
Louisiana is going through a lot of changes with their roster and staff. Excluding the freshman class, they bring in nine transfers who will all be fighting for minutes. Of those nine players, five are guards, which does not affect how much Lewis will get on the court. Louisiana also lost their top two wings and opens a need for a versatile wing scorer like Lewis. From a roster perspective, it sets up for Lewis to have immediate impact, especially with his ability to score.
Early on there will likely be an emphasis on getting Lewis acclimated to the college level. Once conference play begins, expect Lewis to be in the starting lineup and contributing at a high level on both sides of the ball. Louisiana is coming off its worst offensive season since 2012 as they ranked outside the top 320 In offensive efficiency per KenPom. There was not a lot of explosiveness or players with the ability to create consistent offense.
Under new head coach Quannas White, there is a clean slate for all players. As a former player and assistant under Kelvin Sampson, expect the Ragin' Cajuns to have solid play on both sides of the ball. Lewis fits the mold of a two-way versatile wing that can flourish under White. Style of play for new coaches is a big question but from where Quannas came from, we can expect a tough, gritty team that relies on defense. Lewis should be a focal point in that scheme as he is able to thrive on both sides of the ball.
Lewis may be a newcomer but his ability to score should be a breath of fresh air for this offense. Despite the outside shooting being an issue, Lewis is still able to be effective finishing at the rim and in the mid-range area. That versatility raises his floor offensively. Pace is where Lewis thrives and it would be beneficial for Louisiana to run when Lewis is on the floor.
The two-way versatility of Lewis should keep him on the floor early and often. Although the physicality will take some adjusting, Lewis will adjust and get better with each game. When you are as highly touted as he is, the pressure can be overwhelming, but the pieces around him fit well and should help with the adjustment to the college game. There will not be a need to hand him the keys right away, but as the season progresses, expect Lewis to take charge and be one of the premiere players on the roster.
Nyk Lewis - Guard, VCU
Scouting Report
Despite offers from Big Ten and Big East schools, Nyk finds himself in the A-10 where the guards are prioritized and relied upon to perform at a high level nightly. He measures at round 6’1 but has a 6’5 wingspan and plays bigger than what the measurables show. There are times when he can play off the ball and be useful as a cutter but when the ball is in his hands, he is lethal.
Nyk’s level of ball handling and how he navigates ball screens are a sight to see. When coming off those screens, you never know what to expect as a defender. He can make any pass with either hand and when the blitz coverage comes, he makes quick decisions. Rarely do you see Nyk with a loose handle and more importantly he does not turn the ball over. Last year during EYBL, he had nearly a 2/1 assist to turnover ratio while having the ball in his hands at a high rate.
The shooting is a weakness right now, but it is not something he hunts or bails defenses out by doing. A much better catch and shoot option than he is off the bounce but overall needs to find more consistency. Playing with other guards who can shoot can ease him into being more consistent from outside, but getting downhill is where his bread is buttered.
On ball defense is a strength of Nyk’s and he can hassle ball handlers 94 feet. Bigger guards try to post him up, but he does a great job of fighting for position and making it difficult. His length makes up for what he does not have in size on both ends but especially on defense as he plays passing lanes well.
First Year Fit & Expectations
Nyk Lewis and Phil Martelli, Jr. are a match made in heaven. VCU will be one of the fastest teams in the country and who better to help run that offense than Nyk Lewis. Whether he has the ball in his hands or as a secondary option, Lewis will thrive with the space and pace the Rams play with. The freedom and confidence Martelli Jr breeds into his guards will put Nyk in the immediate crossfires of showing Rams fans why he was so highly sought after.
Adaptability and adjustments needed by Nyk are going to happen through trial and error because he should see significant minutes early. Struggling with bigger and more physical players will be no shock, but as he gets more reps, he should adjust and improve. Year over year, Nyk has shown growth in his game physically and through metrics. There should be no worries if he gets off to a slow start, knowing he has been resilient at every level.
From a roster perspective, the Rams bring in seven new players. While at Bryant, Martelli Jr teams ranked outside the top 300 in bench minute%. That is something we can expect to see changed here with the abundance of talent he has on the roster. The combination of potential lineups used will be an advantage in conference play and Nyk should be able to contribute to those advantages.
The A-10 is a challenging conference and with so many moving pieces from a staff and roster perspective, it only gets tougher. Nyk will be put in a good position where he is expected to contribute at a high level. Due to his versatility on offense and his on-ball defense, there is a chance he ends up being the best guard for the Rams late in the season.
Spencer Ahrens - Forward, Boise State
Scouting Report
The highly sought after four-star recruit chose Boise State over power schools like Gonzaga and Illinois. Before seeing Spencer play, he passes the eye test with his size and length. When you turn on the film, the eye test proves to be correct with how he impacts the game. In nearly every interview, Spencer harps on winning and doing whatever it takes to help the team win. Easy to see why schools were enamored by him on and off the floor with how he not only plays but understands the game.
On the floor, Spencer is a three-level scorer that you can plug in at the four or five and give teams nightmares. Looking through the landscape of the sport, stretch big men are prioritized at every level. From high school to FIBA play, Spencer has proven to be a reliable shooter. While playing for UPlay Canada on the EYBL circuit and FIBA u19 – he shot above 40% from three on a nice volume.
In transition there is something to be said for how Spencer runs the floor. He does an excellent job of knowing when to push the ball on the break and when to give it up, knowing that will result in an easier look for him. When in the half court, Spencer sets great screens and is an elite pick and pop threat. The shot creation needs some improvement, but he understands that, which is why he uses less dribbles to get to his spot.
An underrated aspect of Spencer’s game is the ability to find cutters out of post ups. In high school there were ample times that he was doubled and quickly found an open shooter or slasher. On ball defense will need to improve, especially when switched on to smaller guards. He is not the best shot blocker but does alter shots at the rim while being exceptional covering space on the weakside when a scramble occurs.
First Year Fit & Expectations
Ahrens should be expected to contribute early and often for the Broncos. They lost quality front line depth and with his size and ability to stretch the floor, Leon Rice should utilize him at a high rate. The Broncos do not play with a ton of tempo and want to execute in the half court. It just so happens that Ahrens thrives in half court sets as a screener or pick and pop threat which opens the floor for his teammates.
The physicality at the college level is something all freshmen struggle with, especially the big men. Gaining strength and being more aggressive is something Spencer will garner throughout the season. Until he is accustomed to that level of physicality and aggression, expect Leon Rice to cater to his strengths and put him in the best position to succeed. The skillset of Ahrens will have the offense ahead of the defense, but the pieces around will help him on that end of the floor.
Defensively, when switched on screens, guards often have their way with him. The Broncos do not have a ton of size so Ahrens will be tasked with guarding bigger more physical big men who will try to bully him. Getting stronger does not happen overnight but learning techniques to be effective without fouling should be prioritized. Leon Rice typically has top 80 defenses, so Ahrens will have a good support system around him to help him on the defensive end.
Shooting is a skillset that generally translates on all levels, especially when your role is reduced. Spencer will not be asked to carry the offense but will be relied upon to do what he does best, which is knock down shots. Boise State was one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country. At 31%, they ranked outside the top 280 and only one player returned (non-freshman) who shot above 33% from deep. This sets up Spencer to be an immediate contributor and even one of the best impact freshmen in the country.
Mario Saint-Supery - Guard, Gonzaga
Scouting Report
Gonzaga will be headed to the newly formed Pac-12 next year and while some do not consider them a mid-major, this player is too good to leave off this list. Mario comes over from Spain after playing in one of their top leagues and thriving. He has great positional size and possesses the ability to change speeds to put defenders in non-advantageous positions. While he is capable of scoring in bunches, he prefers to play within the flow of the offense and get his teammates easy shots.
Throughout his young career, Mario has shown the ability to make any pass on the floor with either hand. Pressure does not bother him, as he plays at his own pace regardless of the defender. In pick and roll sets, he is a maestro who will make you pay regardless of how you defend the screen. He is not known for his outside shooting, but despite that he finds ways to be effective, which is rare for a player of his age. The shooting is not atrocious but is just not a strength of his game yet. He does shoot 90% from the free-throw line which has often been an indicator that the shooting will eventually come around.
Despite his youth, the quality of competition and proven production helps separate him from other freshman in this class. Versatility is a term that is often misused when referring to a player and their skillset. Role-Versatility is something that is pivotal when looking at players of Mario’s caliber. Being effective without the ball and not being the primary focal point of the team are often things players struggle with.
Mario has shown the ability to be effective in multiple roles. During his play with the Spain National Team, he came off the bench and starred in his role. As the competition got better, Mario’s play got better, including pouring in 13 points against Greece which was led by Giannis Antetokounmpo. That type of competitive fire and versatility makes the transition from Spain to college basketball that much smoother.
First Year Fit & Expectations
Point guards in Mark Few’s system have a lot of responsibility. Gonzaga runs some of the best offense in the country and are efficient while doing so. Losing a player like Ryan Nembhard who was an extension on Few on the floor, leaves a huge void at the guard position. Not to mention the loss of Nolan Hickman who was a secondary ball handler and initiator.
Braeden Smith and Adam Miller will be the assumed starters in the backcourt. Smith is coming off an injury while Miller is learning the Mark Few system just like Mario. From an upside perspective, there is not a debate, Mario wins that. What he lacks is proven production at the collegiate level. Not all success translates and regardless of how talented Mario is, there will be an adjustment that must be made to maximize his ceiling and impact.
Gonzaga has more of an old school roster that plays a two-big lineup and runs a heavy dose of ball screens. Mario’s ability to play off pick and roll sets is elite. He makes good reads and knows when to be aggressive and when to set his teammates up. Decision making in a fast-paced environment can be overwhelming for guards but with Mario’s experience, he should fit like a glove in this system.
During the u18 EuroBasket, Mario averaged almost three steals per contest. Is he a lockdown defender? Not quite but he competes and uses his length and instincts to play passing lanes which lead to those steals. The blend of size and quickness allows him to guard smaller and/or bigger guards much like he did in EuroBasket and Liga ACB play.
Rotation wise, it will be hard to keep Mario off the floor with how well he can orchestrate the pick and roll. Graham Ike and Braden Huff will get easy look after easy look when Mario has the ball in his hand. Looking at that in the opposite direction, when teams want to double Ike or Huff, Mario can make them pay with his floaters and mid-range jumpshots. While he is not a sniper from three, when he has a catch and shoot opportunity, he is effective. Expect Mario to be Super (sorry, I had to) in this system and potentially be a first-round pick in June.
