Another week of college basketball is in the history books, and thus arrives a new edition of the Big East Round-Up. Since last week, UConn picked up a nationally-ranked win to bolster its candidacy for No. 1 in the country, while Georgetown added another quality win.
The rest of the league missed opportunities, though, with each of Creighton, Marquette, Butler, Providence, and Xavier suffering high-major losses. DePaul went 0-2 with a landmine home loss to Buffalo.
There is plenty of actual analysis below, though, so enough introduction. Let's dive into some key takeaways from the last week and what to watch for moving forward.
Thank you, Georgetown.
The Big East is just 3-11 against the KenPom top-100 with an average margin of -7.8 in those games. Take away Georgetown and its wins over Maryland (by 10) and Clemson (by 5), though, and those numbers drop to just 1-11 with an average margin of -10.3 — and that’s without including DePaul’s 13-point loss to KP 253 Buffalo. Put simply, the Big East owes a big ‘thank you’ to the Hoyas for buoying a brutal start. In addition to how Ed Cooley and Co. have helped a floundering conference to begin the year, Georgetown simply looks good.
Most importantly, the Hoyas have looked impressive against the right opponents. Georgetown is 10 spots up on KenPom since the preseason, despite falling short of analytic expectations against KP 359 Morgan State (fell eight spots for winning by 17) and KP 341 Binghamton (fell three spots for winning by 13). The Hoyas still won those games and then played their best against the two high-major opponents on their schedule. The backcourt of Malik Mack and KJ Lewis doesn’t just look good but legitimately elite through four games.
The lingering concern is 3-point shooting. Georgetown hasn’t needed to attempt a bunch of 3s to win games, and thank goodness, because it is only 23.2% on those shots. There are two ways of looking at that, though. On the one hand, the low efficiency is concerning because the Hoyas will face opponents that do a better job of taking away the paint than Georgetown’s foes to date have. On the other hand, even the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country connect at a rate higher than 23.2% over the course of the season; only better shooting is to come.
Butler is the league’s most important team this week.
Looking at Bart Torvik’s efficiency rankings with preseason biases removed, the Big East’s third-best-performing team so far this season has been…Butler? Only preseason favorites UConn and St. John’s are rated higher. While the Bulldogs’ numbers are somewhat inflated by facing three sub-300 opponents, Bart Torvik’s measure is adjusted for opponent quality. Even with preseason biases included, Butler has improved more on KenPom than any non-Georgetown Big East team since the start of the season, and is now projected as the league’s sixth-best team. If true (heck, maybe even if not), the league needs Butler to pick up some quality wins as the rest of its nonconference plays out.
Butler’s most recent game, a two-point road loss to SMU, left a bitter taste, mainly from the perspective that it could have won. The Bulldogs led for nearly the entire first half and by as many as nine points before surrendering 70% shooting in the second half. Even with that, Butler had a shot at the buzzer to win the game. The showing still led to a jump in adjusted efficiency, a positive sign, but Butler and the league need more than moral victories.
Looking ahead, Butler will participate in the Greenbrier Tip-Off in West Virginia this week, where it will face South Carolina and Virginia in the span of three days. The Bulldogs are the only Big East team facing two high-major opponents this week. Butler’s outlook likely wouldn’t change if it wins only one of two; win neither, and the preseason negativity (picked 10th in the league) returns, while the league suffers. Win both, though, and it might raise some optimistic eyebrows. That said, both Butler and the league could use a strong week.
Dylan Darling is emerging early for St. John’s.
After an offseason of speculation, Stanford transfer Oziyah Sellers earned the first crack at St. John's starting point guard position. In the season-opener against Quinnipiac, though, it was Idaho State transfer Dylan Darling that led the team in assists. He also also made the Red Storm significantly better defensively, helping hold the Bobcats to .429 eFG% while forcing turnovers on 35.1% of possessions as opposed to .474 and 20.0% without him.
Fast-forward to the next game, and Darling's absence with a calf injury was notable. Albeit against one of the nation's top offensive teams in Alabama, St. John's surrendered 103 points and forced just four steals. Alabama's 8.3% turnover rate was the lowest forced by a Rick Pitino-coached team since Feb. 6, 2023 at Iona (and the lowest at a high-major since Feb. 7, 2015 at Louisville).
When St. John's took the floor for Game 3 against William & Mary, Pitino inserted Darling into the starting lineup. A similar result as against Quinnipiac ensued, with Darling leading the Red Storm's guards in assists and helping them force far more turnovers on the other end (32.8% on versus 23.5% off). His 7.1% individual steal rate through two games played ranks 15th nationally.
Isolating the two games in which Darling played, St. John's is surrendering 31.3 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor versus without:
Bryce Lindsay is off to a scorching start.
The first in-season Big East Round-Up noted Bryce Lindsay's excellent performance against BYU in Villanova's opener: 22 points on 5-for-9 from three while coming off the bench, albeit in a losing effort. Well, he hasn't come off the bench for the Wildcats since, and has impact has far from slowed down.
The James Madison transfer followed up his game against BYU with 25 points against Queens, showcasing his attacking with 6-for-11 shooting inside the arc and a 10-for-11 showing at the free-throw line. Since then, he has been back to his perimeter ways, combining to shoot 12-for-22 from deep in wins over Sacred Heart and Duquesne. Of the 64 players averaging 20+ points per game this season (min. 3 GP), Lindsay ranks 21st in effective field goal percentage at 66.7%:
It also bears noting that Lindsay has dished eight assists to zero turnovers over Villanova's three-game win streak. For the season, the Wildcats are posting a +29.8 adjusted net rating with Lindsay on the floor compared to -7.0 when he sits.
NC State will challenge Seton Hall’s interior defense.
Seton Hall is 4-0 to begin the season and one of only four Big East teams to improve on its preseason KenPom rating. That said, the Pirates have moved only from No. 93 to No. 90 and have faced the fifth-easiest in the country, per KenPom; a matchup with KP No. 360 New Haven on Nov. 18 won’t change that, either. However, the latter matchup of the week against NC State on Nov. 24 marks the team’s first against a high-major opponent.
The Pirates’ meeting with the Wolfpack will not just be telling because it's against a high-major opponent, though. Seton Hall’s interior defense has been its calling card through four games this season, leading the nation in 2-point percentage allowed. That interior stoutness will be tested by an NC State team that, although 3-point oriented (ninth in 3PAr), leads the nation in 2-point percentage when it does attack:
Furthermore, Seton Hall ranks third in forced turnover rate and allows the 19th-slowest offensive possessions to opponents. NC State ranks 18th in turnover rate allowed and plays at the 35th-fastest offensive possession average. How the Pirates perform against the Wolfpack, regardless of result, could tell a lot about what will translate to the Big East.
Games to watch in the coming week
Nov. 19 - UConn vs. Arizona: A matchup between two AP top-5 teams in the country is an obvious must-watch. Not only did both teams enter this season with high expectations but both have answered the call early; UConn is coming off a win over BYU, while Arizona has already notched wins over Florida and UCLA. Two teams with dominant interior attacks should make for a paint battle.
Nov. 22 - Providence vs. Penn State: Providence was picked to finish fourth in the Big East this season but is yet to live up to that expectation. The Friars have lost both of their high-major matchups to date en route to a 2-2 record and a 27-spot drop on KenPom since the preseason. A neutral-site win over Penn State would be a good place to start building back up. Defensive improvement is a must.
Nov. 24 - Day 1 at the Players Era: The 2025 Players Era features some elite matchups, including Creighton vs. Baylor (2pm ET) and St. John's vs. Iowa State (4:30pm ET) on opening day. Both the Bluejays and Red Storm entered this season in the AP top-25, and hope to add their first high-major wins each of the year. For Creighton, it looks to bounce back from a 27-point loss to Gonzaga. For St. John's, it pivots from facing an elite offense in its first high-major game (Alabama) to facing an elite defense this time around.
