At some point during the offseason, everyone anchors themselves to a thought so preposterous, so completely absurd, that it causes literal backlash from the masses.
We've compiled the hottest takes from the Basket Under Review staff and organized them neatly so you can reference back when they’re either dead on or dead wrong.
Brian Rauf
Georgetown will finish in the top three of the Big East standings.
I have been pounding the table backing the Hoyas all offseason and will continue to do so. Malik Mack was solid in his first year after transferring from Harvard, and another leap may very well be in the works given its his second season at the power conference level. Transfers KJ Lewis (Arizona) and Langston Love (Baylor) are perfect compliments to Mack on the wing with their defense and shooting, respectively.
Those two highlight an underrated transfer class full of proven power conference contributors that came from winning programs – something Ed Cooley clearly pursued as he solidifies his culture in Year 3 on the Hilltop.
Success for the Hoyas will come down to the frontcourt, where sophomore Julius Halaifonua and transfer Vincent Iwuchukwu (St. John's/USC) are tasked with holding down the fort. The coaching staff is high on Halaifonua's upside, and Iwuchukwu has been a pleasant surprise in offseason workouts.
I think the Big East is incredibly wide open behind UConn and St. John's, and Georgetown is as equipped as any to capitalize. A top three spot in the Big East likely means Georgetown will return to the AP Top 25 at some point, too.
Will Warren
THREE-BID ATLANTIC 10.
Yes, seriously. No, I don't do any drugs harder than Benadryl.
This is the most interesting the A-10 has been in years, and its recent downturn in performance may make some forget how reliable it once was at depositing multitudes of teams into the Big Dance. From 2008 through 2018, the Atlantic 10 produced three or more Tournament teams in 11 consecutive Tournaments. It hasn't gone above two since.
Yet this year, there's a great mix of peak rosters, excellent hires, and well-fitting rosters that could produce not only the best A-10 since the early 2010s, but an A-10 capable of having multiple at-large teams make the field. Saint Louis is in Year Two of Josh Schertz with likely Player of the Year Robbie Avila and utterly immense offensive upside that could overwhelm a lot of opponents. Dayton returns Javon Bennett, breakout candidate Amael L'etang, and a host of good transfers. George Washington has four starters back from a 21-win team. Loyola Chicago may have a top-50 defense once again. VCU is, well, VCU.
In Torvik's preseason ratings, this league has six top-100 teams with a seventh (#102 George Mason) barely missing out on the party. Even the back end of the league has good coaches (Fordham) or good individual pieces (St. Joe's, Rhode Island). There's no truly dire teams here, which should boost conference ratings and increase the chance of multiple bids. Zero bid league? Hell no.
Eamonn Brennan
At some point, St. John's will go off the rails.
For most of the fall, I've been trying to get my head around St. John's. On the one hand, Rick Pitino is the coach, and Rick Pitino is very good at coaching. On the other hand, Ian Jackson – he of the 7.0 percent assist rate at UNC last season – was St. John's putative point guard. Or, ope, actually, check that: no he's not. And also, who cares, stop asking, because "there are no point guards anymore" and if you're calling a player a point guard, you're "probably describing a guy who can't shoot."
That the interesting-in-theory Jackson experiment ended before it began – and ended so totally that Pitino declared an entire position dead – has not filled me with a ton of secondary confidence about the rest of the roster. The Hall of Fame coach clearly prioritized shooting in the portal, at least in the backcourt, after last season's defensive machine hit a scoring wall against No. 10-seed Arkansas. But the Johnnies still look short on that skill at the three and four spots, where Bryce Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell are expected to start.
On the one hand, you could see this team as a retention of underlying principles (size, length, defense) with a bit more shooting sprinkled through. On the other hand, you wonder if the "I suppose we do need some guys who can shoot" rethink went quite far enough.
Speaking of Hopkins: He came off the bench in last weekend's exhibition win over Towson. “[Bryce] has been good and solid the entire summer, and I’m not after good and I’m not after solid," Pitino told reporters of the decision. "I’m after great and passionate." Hmm. Pitino has already dinged fans on Twitter for lackluster ticket sales (to an exhibition against Towson!) and then, at Big East media day, spoke at length about how much money the program has begun to make since his arrival and how he thinks his "time is coming to an end." This is not a guy who just ... says things. The vibes feel off.
Combine the context and the roster confusion, and you have a recipe for a) a slow start, b) at least one really bad stretch or c) both, the likes of which the 2024-25 Johnnies never experienced. Of course this will be accompanied by a classic Pitino burn-it-all-down press conference (or several) in which he calls his players the worst people he's ever met, or whatever.
That does not rule out a happy ending or an eventual tournament run. Pitino's teams have often played their best ball after an emotional nadir. We've been here before. But turbulence – on the floor and off – suddenly feels inevitable. On the one hand, he's Rick Pitino. On the other hand, he's Rick Pitino.
Trilly Donovan
Kansas will return to the AP Poll Top Five this season.
Just three years ago, this would be whatever the opposite of a hot take is. This would be like saying the sun will rise tomorrow or the Browns would change quarterbacks. Kansas started last year preseason No. 1 and I predicted they would be unranked at least once during the year. They ended up unranked the last five weeks of the season.
This year we're buying low on the Jayhawks, who enter the season ranked 19th. Why? Darryn Peterson. This kid is the goods. I think he'll be the No. 1 pick in the draft next year. As a whole, Kansas will be top-10 defensively and the addition of Jacque Vaughn on the bench will pay dividends. To go even further, it'll happen in this window:
Rock Chalk.
Jordan Majewski
Iowa State will be closer to the bubble than a protected seed come March.
My fellow BUR teammates beat me to the punch on my hottest takes, so mine is a bit more lukewarm. I think the Clones ultimately find themselves closer to the bubble than a top 4 seed when the regular season ends, and it will be due to their backcourt.
Tamin Lipsey is a fine offensive player and obviously an absolute demon of a defender on the ball, but he was ISU's third option in the backcourt room last year, and wasn't particularly efficient as a tertiary ball screen operator (a respectable 63rd percentile efficiency rating) or as a catch and shoot release (just a 49th percentile efficiency rating on an 88th percentile unguarded rate, per Synergy). Plus he still isn't fully healthy, which certainly complicates at least the beginning of ISU's season.
Lipsey was an elite rim finisher (92nd percentile) and his defense can create easy transition for the Clones, but I think for this ISU team to maintain a top 10ish KenPom rating like they've enjoyed the past two seasons, more offense will have to be filtered through Josh Jefferson and Jamarion Batemon will have to be near incendiary as a freshman. Typical TJO defense will keep this team at a relatively safe floor, but the backcourt caps the Clones' ceiling.
Rocco Miller
The State of Ohio will only be represented by the MAC Champion during March Madness.
The Buckeyes arguably have a Top 20 roster (19th in the country, per Torvik), played very well against Tennessee in a recent scrimmage, and have certainly invested in making the NCAA Tournament and beyond. My hesitation falls within a team who took a few nights off last year (losing by 21 at home vs. Northwestern late in the season for example), the inter-workings of complex Ohio State politics at the first sign of trouble, and the six Buckeye home losses a season ago leave a horrid taste in my mouth. They've lost their homecourt edge for now, and need to be much tougher mentally to score key road wins in the rugged B1G. This league has 16 quality teams (yes I include Minnesota and Northwestern), and a few of these squads will take on too much water to be invited to the dance. My forecast calls for tOSU to miss the dance again.
Dayton is a squad that I'd love to see dance, but for me Saint Louis is the preseason team to beat. With as many as six other quality teams in the conference contending and the Flyer's high-major scheduling opportunities, there remains hope for an at-large bid. Internal carnage in league play is coming, however. A familiar tale for the Flyers, despite UD likely being the team picking up the best non-conference wins (again).
Cincinnati does not have me sold. The defense should produce a lot of stops, and overall rock-fighting may be required to ultimately succeed. But do you really believe that Kerr Kriisa or Baba Miller in particular are signing up for rock fights? Me either. The Big 12 middle of the pack is fascinating, but I am higher on TCU, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State's chances to excel and ascend to an at-large level than I am on this Cincinnati outlook.
Xavier brought in Richard Pitino and should improve as the year evolves. I just don't foresee enough meat on the roster bone for the Muskies to play its way into the top five of the Big East. My forecast calls for four Big East bids, with Villanova being in the "last four out." Xavier has a lot of Big East teams to outperform in order to get into that discussion.
I project Miami-Ohio to win the MAC Tournament with their impressive nucleus behind Peter Suder. I think Ohio U. has a great core as well. Kent State, Akron, Toledo, and Bowling Green should also bring quality to the MACtion table and for the State to feel strongly about representing the MAC in the dance. As long as the league avoids a Ball State, UMass, or directional Michigan surprise, the State of Ohio will get a bid!
Youngstown State and Wright State will also contend in the Horizon League, but the forecast calls for Oakland to cut down the Horizon sponsored nets in Indy. Thus, only the MAC will be sending a team to the dance from the Birthplace of Aviation.
Matthew Winick
At least two bench players from last season will make an All-American team.
Between the departure of most fifth-year seniors and the acceleration of the transfer portal, there's no greater opportunity for players to take a massive leap in role than in the 2025-26 season. It is not completely unheard of for a guy to take the bench-to-superstar leap, but there's a significant amount of options on the board this year.
The two most obvious are probably Texas Tech's Christian Anderson and Florida's Thomas Haugh. Anderson will need to play extremely heavy minutes at the point for Grant McCasland with limited on-ball options behind him on the roster. He wasn't a lead initiator as a freshman alongside Elijah Hawkins, but his international tape with Germany suggests he's more than capable in that regard. Plus, spoon-feeding the game's best roll-man in JT Toppin certainly won't hurt his assists numbers, combined with his natural scoring ability that saw him put up a 122.6 offensive rating last season.
Haugh is confirmed to be starting at the 3-spot next to returning frontcourt members Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu. While it was Condon that was voted as a preseason First-Team All-American, Haugh may be the greatest benefactor of the significant usage left behind by Florida's departed backcourt trio. An ultra-versatile player who can dribble, pass, shoot, and defend, Haugh was the analytical darling on a team that relies on numbers more than most places at the Power Conference level. If he can maintain relative efficiency on higher usage for what should be one of the best teams in the country, Haugh has a real shot at this feat.
Some other players that could be under consideration are rate-stat darling Mo Dioubate at Kentucky, 3-point sniper Aden Holloway at Alabama, burly big man Tarris Reed at UConn, or potential WCC superstars Braden Huff and Mikey Lewis at Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. Or for that matter, on a list of guys that are meant to come out of nowhere to become a prominent figure in the sport, it may be someone that we aren't even considering as the season is set to kick off.
Jim Root
NC State returns to the Final Four for the second time in three years.
And the Wolf Pack will not need a DJ Burns-fueled, five-day fever dream of an ACC Tournament run to get there!
After two seasons spent thrashing the poor Southland, Will Wade is back in power conference basketball. He has assembled a roster tailor-made to play his brand of basketball – especially on the defensive end. Likely starting big men Darrion Williams and Ven-Allen Lubin are highly switchable, and plucking Tre Holloman and Terrance Arceneaux away from power conference regular season champions Michigan State and Houston was a transfer portal coup.
In fact, analytical rankings adore that quartet. Williams, Holloman and Arceneaux all landed in the 98th percentile (or higher) in CBB Analytics' Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) statistic. Lubin ranked in the 94th percentile of the same measure. All four were in the top 207 players in the country last season, per EvanMiya.com's Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR).
For the layman: they made an incredible large impact on winning. And Wade, a trusted tactician with the clipboard, is the right guy to bring them all together.
Admittedly, that quartet sorely lacks two things: flammable perimeter scoring and true size and length around the basket. The first shortcoming is remedied by the presence of potential NBA wing scorers Paul McNeil and Matt Able, while 22-year-old international import Musa Sagnia can hopefully address the latter. McNeil in particular has been lighting it up at practice, per reports, and Able has immense upside as well.
Eric Fawcett
Sagnia is more of an unknown, but he will not have to play a huge role if the Wolf Pack's army of switchable guards and wings do their part.
That is an abundance of winning talent for Wade to craft into a contender. He never made it past the Sweet 16 at LSU, but this roster has far more balance than any he had in the Bayou. The NCAA might hate it, but Wade is back, and he is going to win big.
Matt Cox
San Francisco dethrones the Zags and Gaels atop the WCC.
There's nothing more certain in the WCC arena than death, taxes and the Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's two-horse race for the conference title belt. However, I'm just as certain these two perennial west coast powers have never looked more vulnerable.
Gonzaga will likely challenge, and win, the Tyon Grant-Foster eligibility tug-of-war against the spineless NCAA (TGF obviously deserves to play). Still, I question the ceiling of a team without a surefire floor general (yes, Braeden Smith and Super Mario are strong candidates) and a pack of wildcards on the wing (yes, there are numerous talented options in tow).
Saint Mary's looks particularly brittle, and at keystone positions, compared to the multi-year player pillars Randy Bennett leaned in every season since the 2021 COVID collapse. I know it's Randy Bennett, and betting against that player development operation is a fool's errand, but betting on youth is no gateway to guaranteed success in this college hoops climate.
The Dons' wing tandem of Tyrone Riley and Ndewedo Newbury will be the Zags and Gaels' kryptonite by March. This team is deep, smart, old and deceptively talented by pro standards with Riley and, to a lesser extent, Newbury back in the saddle.
Given Chris Gerlufsen, Kyle Smith and Todd Golden are a combined 0-24 against Mark Few life time, I'm certain there is no hotter take on the board than betting against that lopsided dominance.
Ky McKeon
Marquette will be better than last year.
The Golden Eagles lose Kam Jones – a guy who literally had the best net on/off rating in the country last season per CBB Analytics – but Marquette will nevertheless improve from last season.
Shaka has shocked the world before at Marquette. In 2023, his Golden Eagles were picked 9th in the Big East and ranked 76th in KenPom's preseason rankings. Shaka wiped his behind with those expectations, leading his squad to a 17-3 Big East record (winning the league by a full two games), finishing 10th in KenPom, and earning a 2-seed in the Big Dance.
This year's Marquette team doesn't have an obvious star, nor does it have a big splashy name arriving through the transfer portal. But the Golden Eagles do have seven returners, four of which played big minutes in 2024-25. To boot, point guard Sean Jones - a lightning bolt in human form - returns from injury. Chase Ross looks to be the "next man up" in Marquette's long line of great guards, and Jones can be his Robin as a menacing point of attack defender and offensive table setter.
The freshman-to-sophomore leap rule can be found in returners Royce Parham and Damarius Owens, two players expected to make massive strides in Year 2. 6-0 freshman guard Nigel James Jr. is being hyped as the best newcomer on the roster. Up front, there's been concerns that Ben Gold can't anchor a good defense... but he did just that last season when Marquette ranked 26th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Putting numbers to the prediction, Marquette needs to finish better than 29 in KenPom, 13-7 in the Big East, and earn a 7-seed or better to soundly beat last season. KenPom and BartTorvik are both selling the Golden Eagles short of these marks, but this humble writer thinks the continuity, the development of the young guns, and the return of Jones can vault Marquette into the KenPom top 25 and beyond. A weak Big East is ripe for the Golden Eagles to roll to a 14-6 or 15-5 mark, and Marquette has some marquee matchups in the non-con to pad their NCAA Tournament resume. Circle November 9th against Indiana in Chicago as an early litmus test.