Key Returners:
Milos Uzan, JoJo Tugler, Emanuel Sharp
Key Newcomers:
Isiah Harwell, Chris Cenac Jr., Kingston Flemings, Kalifa Sakho
Key Losses:
LJ Cryer, J'Wan Roberts, Terrance Arceneaux, Mylik Wilson
Roster:
Reasons for Optimism:
The national media and casual fan seem to finally be catching on to what #ballknowers have known forever: Kelvin Sampson is one of the best coaches in the history of the sport. His work at Houston has been nothing short of miraculous, as he has built one of the premier – and arguably most consistent – programs in college basketball.
The Coogs have finished 2nd in KenPom four straight seasons, which is such a crazy stat that it’s hard to articulate. They were 5th in KenPom the year before that. Sampson has led Houston to three straight 1-seeds, an Elite Eight, a Final Four, and a National Title game.
After maybe the most stunning comeback in NCAA Tournament history, Houston had a 90% chance to beat Florida when it led by double digits in the second half this past April. But, sadly, the Coogs came up short.
It's rinse, wash, repeat again in 2025. Houston will be one of the best teams in the country and the heavy favorite to win the Big 12. The Coogs won the league by four games last year (LOL) and by two the year before that. In two seasons after stepping up from the American, Houston is a giggle-inducing 34-4 in conference. I mean… give me a break.
This program has solidified into a well-oiled machine under Kelvin Sampson. It hardly matters who Sampson loses or who he brings in – his system, development, and coaching will lead to success. Defense, rebounding, and physicality are what Houston is famous for – they are non-negotiables for Sampson, and his players buy fully into the plan.
The Coogs boasted the nation’s #1 defense last year per KenPom and ranked 2nd, 5th, 8th, and 9th the four years prior. Suffocation of the paint, ferocious on-ball defense, and the perfect shell drill have led to Houston’s success on this end.
This year Houston returns arguably the best defender in the country: the reigning Big 12 DPOY JoJo Tugler.
Tugler is one of three starters back from last season along with Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp. The big man shined in more minutes last season, ranking 7th in the country (2nd in the Big 12) in block rate with his inhuman 7-6 wingspan (he’s only 6-8). A beast on the boards, Tugler dominates the offensive glass and gives the Coogs ample second-chance opportunities – a key pillar to their offensive success. Per CBB Analytics, Tugler sported a +26.5 net on/off rating last year, good for the 99th percentile in the country.
Uzan and Sharp are one of the best (maybe the best?) returning guard duos in the nation. A “post-hype sleeper”, Uzan rediscovered his outside shot last season and dazzled after failing to live up to monumental expectations as a sophomore at Oklahoma. His ability to navigate and make plays off ball screens with his craftiness and change of pace is key to preventing the Coog offense from stagnating. Sharp has game-breaking shot-making ability and is a late-clock specialist who can create his own shot and pull from anywhere.
Both Uzan and Sharp are also useful on defense where their size – and Sharp’s strength – fortifies Houston’s perimeter shell.
Sampson’s developmental pipeline has been impressive, and it always seems like the new guys he slots into the lineup rarely skip a beat. Sophomore guard Mercy Miller and junior forward Cedric Lath both have the potential to earn more minutes and play key roles this season.
Miller was a top 60 recruit and saw some action as a freshman. He won’t be required to play a ton with Uzan and Sharp still around, but he’ll be useful as another sizable wing who can shoot and rebound. Lath could be “next up” in Houston’s assembly line of bigs. At 6-9 260 lbs., Lath is a load inside and sported a ridiculous 20.0% offensive rebounding rate in limited minutes last year.
Returning wing Ramon Walker Jr. adds stability and experience to the roster, as he enters his 5th year with the program.
Causes for Concern:
While Houston is expected to be dominant once again, there are legitimate nits a “hater” could pick with this roster. Shooting and playmaking take a hit with the departure of LJ Cryer, frontcourt offense takes a massive hit without J’Wan Roberts, and Sampson will need to rely on at least a couple of his incoming freshmen.
Being an excellent outside shooting team isn’t a requirement for Houston to be successful on offense, but it sure as hell helps. Last year’s squad ranked 3rd nationally in 3P%, which, when paired with their ability to offensive rebound and protect the rock, made them a hyper efficient offensive attack. Sharp and Uzan are the only proven shooters on the roster – guys like Miller or incoming freshmen Isiah Harwell and Kingston Flemings will need to contribute. But again, even with mediocre outside shooting squads, Houston has found success:
Houston’s offense can certainly get clunky and not be “fun to watch”. It relies on guard play and creation via screens and isolation, and then cleanup from the bigs on the glass. The Roberts loss is massive because it takes away one of Sampson’s best go-to weapons on this end. Multiple times throughout the year, Houston could throw the ball to Roberts on the elbow and clear out as he bullied his man to the cup for 2. There is no equal on this year’s roster.
Somebody in Sampson’s star-studded freshman class – the #2 class in the nation behind Duke – will need to step up. Harwell is the most likely, a top 20 recruit who is best described as the prototypical wing. He already has the size and frame to play at the college level and can hit from outside the arc.
Chris Cenac Jr. is higher rated in recruiting services, a top 10 5-star forward with a 7-3 wingspan. Cenac needs to add strength to play consistently in Houston’s system, but he can handle the ball and has great touch on his jumper. Pairing him in a lineup with Tugler up front is “nighty night” for opponents attacking the rim.
Then there’s top 25 recruit Kingston Flemings, a lead ball handler who possesses good speed, good athleticism, and lots of wiggle. Down the road he could absolutely develop into the next great Houston point guard.
Sampson usually adds one or two transfers to his roster, and this year he went with Sam Houston import Kalifa Sakho, yet another rebounder and rim protector. Sakho is 6-11 with a 7-4 wingspan and ranked 3rd in OR% and 4th in block rate in CUSA last season. Rotating him with Tugler and Cenac gives Houston a freaky long 5-man platoon.
Bottom Line:
It is still baffling how many national media members underrate Houston on a yearly basis. The latest national title run hopefully finally woke those weirdos up, but the fact remains this team has been dominant for years. Expect yet another season in which Houston rolls through the Big 12, hangs out near the top of KenPom, and competes for a National Championship.