Feast Week is officially upon us, no time to waste, so let's dive in...
TENNESSEE vs RUTGERS (Las Vegas)
The Player's Era event kicks off with what could be the least aesthetically pleasing game of the day there, especially when you factor in the 10 AM local tip time. The Scarlet Knights have an extremely pedestrian analytical profile against one of the 5 weakest schedules in the country to date, and are coming off a double digit home loss to CCSU.
Even with the addition of an elite ball screen operator in Ja'Kobi Gillespie, this has still been a typical heavy off-ball screening and cutting Rick Barnes offense for the Vols. Nate Ament raises the offensive ceiling for what's always a defense first SEC contender, but I think there's still some bumps to smooth out in terms of Ament's usage. He hasn't been a consistent enough shooter in Tennessee's screening action, and his real strength is a matchup nightmare as a ballhandling 6'10 unicorn, but that's not really exploited much within this offense.
Generally speaking, I think you still want to make Tennessee a jump shooting team first and foremost, and Rutgers' clear strength overall has been their rim defense, grading out in the 94th percentile efficiency wise per Synergy data. But again, they've played an entirely low midmajor schedule to compile that strong rim/2PT% defense. The Vols will be without JP Estrella this tournament, which might not matter this morning, but could as the tournament progresses. Estrella actually has the highest on/off efficiency margin split on the team, per EvanMiya data.
Defensively the Vols are still very much a Rick Barnes outfit as well, with heavy, in your chest ball pressure, early stunting, and elite rim protection forcing contested jump shots. Immediate nail help is a key tenet of a Barnes defense, so stretchy bigs have always been vital in beating Tennessee's defense, something Dylan Grant is capable of but hasn't shown a lot of, and I fear Rutgers' small backcourt could get swallowed here by the Vols' ball pressure.
It won't be the easiest matchup for the Vols' offense, especially with the early tip time, but I don't see how Rutgers scores efficiently or keeps Tennessee from supplementing on the offensive glass. Certainly worth noting that margin of victory matters up to a point in this somewhat goofy set-up, but this has all the makings of a slow bleed out for the Scarlet Knights.
CREIGHTON vs BAYLOR (Las Vegas)
Baylor is relatively untested, which makes me still harbor some of my preseason priors and skepticism about this team, but what I've seen has been very encouraging, especially offensively. The PNRs have hummed between Cam Carr and Michael Rataj, especially how they'll invert it with Rataj taking the ball screen and Carr using his athleticism as a cutter.
This versatility in PNR can really wreak havoc against Creighton's drop coverage.
Defensively the Bears have definitely adopted some pack line principles with Ron Sanchez coming to Scott Drew's staff, and Rataj has been effective as a hedge big, and they denied Hannes Steinbach, the one true post they've played (important against Owen Freeman)
Creighton has really struggled to shoot the ball on the year, but there is definitely some better days ahead (despite losing stretch big Jackson McAndrew, who actually has the worst on/off margin on the team, and is replaceable by Isaac Traudt), as they're .24 PPP under expectation on a 98th percentile unguarded catch and shoot rate. The Jays have been highly efficient finishing at the rim, with Freeman looking like he finally got his legs under him against North Dakota last time out, and I think rim defense is still very much a concern for the Bears without Juslin Bodo Bodo- as is defensive rebounding, which has been another strength of this Creighton team so far.
Drew and the Bears have had a week and a half to prep for this (Drew has historically been strong with extra prep), and I think the Bears are farther along offensively at this point than the Jays. Certainly lean Baylor's way.
KANSAS vs NOTRE DAME (Las Vegas)
It was a game effort from Kansas against Duke last time out, but once the Blue Devils shut off the Jayhawks' early transition game and forced halfcourt execution, it was lights out for KU without Darryn Peterson. Micah Shrewsberry will very much make this halfcourt execution contest, just like the Irish did at Ohio State, holding the Buckeyes to 2 total transition attempts. The problem in that regard is that there's no guarantee the Irish out execute KU in the halfcourt. In Notre Dame's only high quality game, they scored just .7 PPP in the halfcourt against Ohio State, who isn't on the same tier defensively as KU. Carson Towt has held up well as a post defender thus far, but Flory Bidunga is the first high level post player he'll see (Christoph Tilly torched the Irish in his turn and face game), and I would also watch for Self trying to backdown Markus Burton with Tre White and Melvin Council, something Irish opponents have hunted all year.
Ultimately, I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar to ND's game against Ohio State, where it comes down to one or two plays in the halfcourt.
ST. JOHN'S vs IOWA STATE (Las Vegas)
Having point guard problems? Iowa State's swarming ball screen and post denial is probably not who you want to be facing in that scenario if you're Rick Pitino. This is going to be difficult for whatever combination of Darling/Sellers/Jackson to navigate:
That in turn would allow the Clones to get out in transition and avoid the Johnnies' set halfcourt defense and own intense ball pressure.
The best way to counter ISU's aggressive hedging and traps is to exploit them on the weakside with quick ball movement. One perhaps hidden area to watch in that regard: Zuby Ejiofor (and even Bryce Hopkins) as a passer, either in the short roll or high post, as you're not going to get deep post position against this ISU denial.
I had some skepticism about the Clones' backcourt coming into the year, and but with Tamin Lipsey fully healthy and looking incredible alongside Killyan Toure, I think that's where ISU's advantage lies. If Pitino decides to go nuclear with Dillon Mitchell on Lipsey, the aforementioned short roll/high post creation becomes even more important on the other side, with Josh Jefferson elite in this regard, especially given how TJO utilizes him in ball screens and can really flip the Johnnies' rim protection.
Ultimately I think the Clones are little more likely to create transition and avoid set halfcourt defense, which in turn makes me lean their way.
HOUSTON vs SYRACUSE (Las Vegas)
There are as of now unverified rumors of Donnie Freeman potentially bringing an injury with him to Vegas, which would in turn limit a Syracuse offense that hasn't proven to be able to score efficiently in the halfcourt, going up against the best set defense in the country. Don't get me wrong, the Orange have been efficient in the halfcourt to date, but against the easiest schedule in the entire country, and they haven't been forced to score consistently in the halfcourt yet, using a 38% turnover rate from a 73rd percentile press rate to mostly avoid the halfcourt. It's also telling that the one game they didn't generate at least a 20% turnover rate (vs Monmouth last time out), was also their least efficient game of the season offensively. Also worth noting that Freeman has Cuse's highest usage rate in the halfcourt.
Houston's halfcourt offense has had efficiency and shot selection issues, but with Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan, there are so many ballhandlers against Syracuse's ball pressure. Like Tennessee-Rutgers to start the day, this feels like a slow bleed out for the Orange.
AUBURN vs OREGON (Las Vegas)
I'm certain Oregon has anything outside of the Shelstad/Bittle two man game in PNR, and Auburn looked elite in PNR defense against Houston, holding the Cougars to just 6 total points in that regard.
Dana Altman is always very honest about his team, and this quote didn't exactly fill me with a warm and fuzzy holiday feeling: "Well, confidence comes from preparation, I'm not sure how prepared this group is… but we're going to swing away and we're going to play hard."
The infamous Altman amoeba zone has largely been phased out in recent years, but when the Ducks were getting overwhelmed by Rice's athleticism (yes Rice's athleticism), the zone brought them back in the game. Auburn's athleticism can definitely overwhelm here, but worth noting the Tigers have seen a massive amount of zone already from the mundane (Jackson State) to the incredibly unique (Merrimack) and performed efficiently.
I lean the Tigers here (and I'm assuming Keyshawn Hall is available, as early reports indicated, but have to keep an eye on this of course), but my caveat is this is almost identical to the Ducks' situation last year. They headed to Vegas with less than sterling OOC results to date (they should/could have lost to Portland and Oregon State), but then proceeded to sweep Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama.
GONZAGA vs ALABAMA (Las Vegas)
The main event of Monday night's Player's Era slate. Gonzaga's far more aggressive defense has been one of the major November CBB story lines, as they're aggressively hedging and helping from the corners (expertly broken down here at BUR), generating a high turnover rate and fueling their absolutely lethal transition attack. That said, Alabama's elite PNR structure and 5 out delay can pick apart aggressive hedges, and consistently make Ike and Huff defend in ball screens.
Gonzaga's length allows them to contest extremely well, which is a large part of their 99th percentile jump shot defensive efficiency rating- but there's still a large degree of regression owed there on a high weak side 3PT attempt rate allowed (.36 PPP under expectation per Synergy). There's no offense like Alabama that can coax your defensive regression.
Alabama's spacing could in turn help their defense, as I think it limits how much Few can run Ike and Huff together, and therefore at least partially mitigate the massive frontcourt advantage the Zags enjoy offensively (although getting Keitenn Bristow in a uniform has helped the Tide defensively, as he's already emerged as their most effective paint defender).
If we're calling transition a wash (and I am, as both are extremely dangerous in transition, and previous recent battles between these two averaged about 82 possessions and 182 points), this comes down to Gonzaga's rim and glass dominance vs Alabama's ability to exploit the weakside 3 and Gonzaga's defensive spacing. Obviously one shot is worth one more point than the other.
MICHIGAN vs SAN DIEGO STATE (Las Vegas)
Brian Dutcher vs Michigan! I've noted Dutch's dominance with extra prep in the past (and oddly this hasn't been the case for Dusty May), and he surely has his team's attention after the Troy debacle.
Michigan's issues against ball pressure and hedging defenses are well documented at this point, and came to a head at TCU with a mind boggling 32% turnover rate.
Typically a San Diego State defense would feast here with a healthy Magoon Gwath, one of the elite switch and recover bigs in the country.
Gwath played 28 very effective minutes against Troy on both ends, but was mostly in drop coverage and did look a touch laterally limited (perhaps just my perception). Non turnover possessions for Michigan however are going to generate open looks against this SDSU (whether in gap help, hedge, or drop), as Michigan's ball movement and passing (especially from their bigs) can exploit that. The problem is the Wolverines haven't been making those shots outside of exploiting Oakland's zone. Part of this is Dusty May still figuring out lineup maximization (he clearly made it a focal point to scheme toward Yaxel Lendeborg against MTSU, who was looking a little lost in this offense prior to that), another part is guys who were never shooters still aren't shooters, and yet another part is Nimari Burnett sort of losing his role.
Conversely, SDSU hasn't been missing their catch and shoots, but Michigan's defensive structure is designed to totally take away the rim without help and therefore stay true on perimeter shooters. The Tecs are scoring in just the 10th percentile in ball screen creation at an 81st percentile usage rate, and that's really where the offense comes from against this Michigan defense. That said, SDSU's offense is always features midrange merchants, and that's what Dusty May will give you, just like in the Final Four matchup between these two a few years ago.
Ultimately it's going to be hard for SDSU's offense to keep up given the disparity in shot quality generated by these offenses, but Michigan's turnovers and actual making present opportunities for the Aztecs to ugly this game up.
MARYLAND vs UNLV (Vegas)
It sounds like the Terps will have some combination of Myles Rice, Solo Washington, and Pharrel Payne back in the lineup, perhaps all 3. Interestingly, Josh Pastner completely abandoned his trademark morphing 1-3-1 after UT Martin shredded it in the opener with their Euro spacing, but it would likely be fairly effective here against Maryland, who looked pretty inept in zone offensive even against meager SWAC and MEAC zones.
UNLV's offense has been extremely reliant on winning ball screen and iso matchups, owning a 94th percentile rim rate with a 93rd percentile finishing efficiency. That's going to be difficult to do against an underscreening, extreme gap and dribble help defense like Buzz Williams brings to the floor, but you would like to see at least one of Washington or Payne on the floor defensively in that regard (UNLV also potentially shorthanded in the frontcourt with Ladji Dembele's injury).
These two enter with top 5 free throw rates and both defenses tend to foul at a high clip, which means we could see a late night free throw parade. Both offenses also rely heavily on second chance opportunities, so whoever wins these free throw and offensive rebounding margins likely wins this game. Obviously UNLV has the proximity advantage in their favor, but I don't know if that translates to an actual "home court" advantage for the Rebs.
MAUI QUICK TAKES:
- I went too long on Player's Era, and with kids out of school and employers not recognizing this is Feast Week, I only have time for some Maui quick hitters: Two ridiculously oversized positional lineups between USC and Boise State. My issue with the Broncos is that I think Muss can iso hunt here at a few spots, and Boise State is shooting above their pay grade from the perimeter, all at home. USC's rim defense is all the way legit, so they're really going to have to keep up that hot shooting, which I suppose is possible with the Maui rims.
- Seton Hall's elite transition and rim denial (sounds like Najai Hines' groin is ok here) can ugly up this game against the vastly more talented NC State. The problem is the Pack's underscreening switch induces a massive jump shot rate, and this Pirates offense is extremely jump shot averse. The Hall owns an 82nd percentile rim rate (with a yikes 10th percentile finishing efficiency) and a top 10 near shot proximity rating per Haslametrics. VCU stayed competitive with the Pack by hitting a ton of tough triples. I don't think the Pirates can do that, even with the charmin Maui rims.
- My thoughts on Moe Odum, Drop Destroyer, are well known at this point. Texas is playing as strict a drop coverage as anyone in the country right now, with Sean Miller bucking recent trends. Does it help that Arizona State has been camping out in Hawaii for nigh on a week? Maybe a little. Former Pac12/Arizona in-state rivals Sean Miller and Bobby Hurley know each other quite well, with Miller owning a 9-3 advantage in the series.
- Have to make time for the Virgin Islands final, where spread and shred Akron takes on the elite post footwork of Nick Townsend and Yale. I've harped and harped on it, but I think this is where Yale's shot selection/shot making disparity comes into play, as the Zips will absolutely roast you off misses. That said, the Zips' second lowest transition rate of the year was against Yale last season on a neutral, along with their lowest unguarded catch and shoot rate- with the Bulldogs completely dominating the paint on the other end. This Yale team isn't quite on the same level defensively as last year's team however.